2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

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Rellimie
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2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by Rellimie »

1. Henry Davis, C, Louisville
2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, HS
3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, HS
4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
5. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Rellimie
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by Rellimie »

1. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Davis is now hitting .389/.511/.671 for the Cardinals, walking more than he’s struck out, with power, patience, bat control, and a plus arm. He also offers some certainty in a draft class with very little of it. For more on Davis, check out my in-person scouting report from April.

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas

Lawlar has the best package of tools in the draft class, with the potential for all five depending on his hit tool, which is the main question scouts still offer about him as a prospect. He’s very quick-twitch with bat speed and power, but he’ll be 19 at the draft and hasn’t faced great competition this spring to raise confidence in how he’ll hit pro pitching.

3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA)

Mayer is a left-handed hitting shortstop who doesn’t have the pure upside of Lawlar, but may be a more advanced hitter for his age. He has a great swing with good balance and the potential for plus power, and he’s a potential 60 defender at short as well.

4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

Rocker’s up-and-down spring might knock him down a few pegs on draft boards, but he can still show a plus fastball/plus breaking ball combination and has the size to be a durable, 200-inning starter, needing primarily to improve his command and show more consistency when working with men on base.

5. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

My No. 1 prospect in my last two rankings, Leiter had two bad starts in a row, then missed last weekend’s start as a very late scratch that the coaching staff said was to “monitor his innings.” He has great deception and a fastball that misses bats in the zone, with a delivery he repeats to eventually get to 55 or better command. We just have to see him pitch again.
Rellimie
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by Rellimie »

Law: Is Louisville’s Henry Davis the best prospect in this year’s MLB Draft?

By Keith Law Apr 19, 2021 74
Louisville catcher Henry Davis has an incredible eye at the plate, rarely swinging and missing, making hard contact with power, and showing a plus arm with good hands on defense.

So why the &^@$ isn’t he the top prospect in this draft class?

The assumption all spring has been that the first overall pick, held by Pittsburgh, would be one of the two Vanderbilt right-handers, Jack Leiter (No. 1 on my board) or Kumar Rocker. But the industry has long held that position players are safer picks than pitchers, and there are few more valuable position players than catchers who can hit and defend. Davis can do those things, and there aren’t many better hitters in this class at any position

Davis has an elite approach at the plate, an ideal combination of selectivity, pitch recognition, and hand acceleration, so that he just doesn’t swing and miss. I saw one swing-and-miss in 10 plate appearances over two games, and his whiff rate this season is only around 6 percent, while he reached base safely in eight of those trips to the plate via five hits and three walks. His swing is beautiful, with the aforementioned quick hands and great hip rotation to allow him to drive the ball, and he showed no problem catching up to 96-97 against UVA. Behind the plate, he receives well but needs some work with blocking, while the Cavaliers never even tested his plus arm.

Two days of watching Davis gave me strong Buster Posey vibes, and Posey, who went fifth overall in the 2008 draft, should have gone first. (He was No. 2 on my draft board that year, behind Tim Beckham, who was the first overall pick and the consensus top prospect. I had it wrong.) Posey hit with the old silly bats, but his .463/.566/.879 line as a junior — with a nearly 2:1 walk to strikeout ratio — would probably look a lot like Davis’ current line of .409/.533/.678, with a BB:K ratio over 2 if Posey used the modern composite bats the NCAA requires now.

Even if you think Davis is Posey Lite, is that a more valuable player than a good No. 2 starter, which is Leiter’s projection? Would you prefer the certainty of a catcher who hits to the wider variance in outcomes for Rocker, who can show you No. 1 stuff and has a workhorse build, but lacks the command or consistency of a Leiter? Joey Bart was the No. 2 pick three years ago, with an inferior offensive profile and track record to Davis, striking out far more often. Maybe it’s time to reconsider the idea that the first pick has to be one of the Vandy boys, even if Pittsburgh is limiting its choices to college players. Davis is, at the very least, good enough to be in their decision set.
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bucco boy
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

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A catcher is an interesting position to look at. No doubt it is very valuable and is hard to find a catcher that can hit. I still would lean towards one of the arms or Lawlor. But again, we have to trust Cherington. So far, he has earned it.
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by Black & Gold »

Pirates have the #1 pick and lo-and-behold, no consensus number 1. Great.

My take on Jack Leiter. Watched him twice, both times on ESPN. He might be a good reliever. I just don't think he is worth a top pick. Or a first round pick. He struggles with control as evidenced by his 32 BB and 7 HBP in 70 innings this season. He is a full-effort guy. And I mean MAX effort, where he lurches directly towards the batter sometimes, and towards first base others.

As to his incredible velocity - a myth as far as I can tell. He deals at 94-96 mph. His curveball is superb but he relies vastly on college hitters hacking away at balls outside the strike zone. No interest in him at 1-1, at all.
TheTimeIsNow
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by TheTimeIsNow »

The draft board has shaken up quite a bit in the last few months. I liked it better when Rocker was the clear #1 pick a while back (not that I want Rocker that badly; just because I like having clarity lol).

In my opinion, a favorite hasn't risen to the top. Lawlar seems to have the tools but high school kids scare me that high in the draft (last 3 HS #1 overall picks have been Royce Lewis, Mickey Moniak, Brady Aiken; YIKES). Don't know much about the Mayer kid. Rocker seems to have boom or bust stuff. Leiter seems like he has a high floor but with the #1 pick you don't go for guys with a high floor. Davis is intriguing. I hope he continues to dominate this season.
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bucco boy
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

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Mayo has another Mock Draft at on MLB.com and the Pirates choosing someone different.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft ... t-coverage
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by Black & Gold »

bucco boy wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 7:25 pmMayo has another Mock Draft at on MLB.com and the Pirates choosing someone different.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft ... t-coverage
I think a lot of the baseball mock draft authors are looking for the "Oh, wow, look at that!" response. That is why they lurch from player-to-player so effortlessly.

Agree 100% with TIN that taking a high school player is a bigger risk. Higher ceiling, I guess, but man that floor is a cellar. I lean towards Rocker because he is going to be a good major league pitcher. Is he an ace? Ehh, maybe. Will he be a guy giving a team 200 really good innings and fanning 200 in the process? Yes.

Henry Davis, I have not seen, but a skilled catcher who does not swing-and-miss and hits for power is a guy who is going to be, once again, a solid major league player. And if you think that "just being a good major league player" is too low a bar, might we bring up about 20 names from the recent past (2010-2014)? How about these names:
  • Christian Colon
  • Barret Loux
  • Delino Deshields, Jr.
  • Karsten Whitson
  • Michael Choice
  • Danny Hultzen
  • Bubba Starling
  • Kyle Zimmer
  • Albert Amora
  • Mark Appel
  • Gavin Cecchini
  • Courtney Hawkins
  • Kohl Stewart
  • Trey Ball
  • Phil Bickford
  • Brady Aiken
  • Tyler Kolek
  • Nick Gordon
  • Alex Jackson
  • Max Pentecost
  • Kodi Madeiris
Every one an early first-round pick, all of them top-12, most top-8. So yeah, I get the team wants a Gerritt Cole or Buster Posey. I think Rocker has Cole potential and Davis seems to have that Posey-vibe, but even if they fall short, both are going to be good. Damn good.

Lawlar, Mayer and Leiter to me just seem to have a whole lot of "look at the names above" about them.
jamestee007
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by jamestee007 »

Whoever the Pirates draft he will never make it to the big team.
jamestee007
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Re: 2021 MLB Draft - Keith Law Top 5 (The Athletic)

Post by jamestee007 »

Any good middle relievers or number 4 outfielders available?
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