Keith Law Top 20 Pirates prospects

[bucco boy]

The ranking
1. Termarr Johnson, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 18)
Age : 19 (as of 7/1/2023) | 5-7 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 4 in 2022

Johnson was the best pure hitter in the high school ranks in the 2022 draft class, although he had some competition from players like Holliday. Johnson, who went fourth to the Pirates, played against awful competition for his Atlanta high school, often dealing with pitchers who’d pitch around him, but hit when he got the chance while also working like an extra coach, encouraging teammates, giving them tips at the plate while he was on base, and more. It’s one thing to talk about a player having great makeup, but you could see Johnson’s great makeup in tangible ways. He has a small hitch in his swing, but has exceptional hand-eye coordination and great bat speed to overcome it, and in a small sample in pro ball he showed he could hit good velocity and deal with better pitch shapes than he’d ever seen in his life. He has great hands to stay on the dirt, but he’s not a shortstop, and his footwork there makes me think he’ll end up at second base. He’s still growing, and might end up a little bit taller — he’s already a baller — and a lot stronger, with 20 homers within reach given his hit tool. With the way he carries himself on the field, I’m happy to bet on him reaching his ceiling.

2. Henry Davis, C (No. 30)
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 1 in 2021

Davis had a really rough go in his first full pro season, as he played in just 59 regular-season games around two IL stints due to a wrist injury. He was hit by a pitch 20 times in those 59 games, and then seven more times in 17 Arizona Fall League games, with one of those HBPs causing a non-displaced fracture in his left wrist that he tried to play through, returned after a one-month trip to the injured list, then went back to the IL in early July and missed more than seven weeks due to soreness in the same wrist. He still hit .264/.380/.472 during the regular season and .260/.435/.440 in the AFL, losing some power after all the wrist trouble and seeing an OBP boost because he thinks he’s Don Baylor at the plate. Davis is a very athletic catcher with a plus-plus arm and plus power, already showing the ability to hit even high-end velocity. He doesn’t have the same results against offspeed stuff — with lower contact quality he’ll need to improve. He’s an extremely hard worker, bringing that reputation from his time at Louisville, and has already made progress as a receiver, but you can still find many scouts who think he can’t catch and/or want to move him to another position, such as third base or right field. I’m in the camp that thinks he’ll stick behind the plate, and that his on-base and power skills will make him an occasional All-Star — but he has to stay healthy and get a lot more reps to get to that point.


Henry Davis (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
3. Endy Rodriguez, C (No. 34)
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018


The Mets traded Rodriguez to Pittsburgh in 2021 to get Joey Lucchesi as part of the three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego. Lucchesi threw 38 innings for the Mets that year before undergoing Tommy John surgery, while Rodriguez has become one of the best catching prospects in baseball. Rodriguez can really hit, and he’s shown he can play multiple positions, including catcher. Early in the season, he was splitting time with Henry Davis, but after Rodriguez became a full-time catcher on July 2, his bat really took off: he hit .379/.461/.731 the rest of the way, despite two promotions in that span that landed him in Triple A to end the year. It’s not elite bat speed or exit velocity, but the ball carries well off his bat, even more so after he reduced his leg kick and initial hand movement partway through the season. He’s improved substantially behind the plate with experience, blocking better, receiving more smoothly, backpicking runners, and nailing 45 percent of would-be basestealers while he was in Double A. He’s also excellent at first base, showed this year he could play second base in a pinch and has some experience in the outfield, where he’s average in a corner. He might not be a star, but I’m not ruling it out, and he seems very, very likely to be an average regular, whether it’s as someone’s full-time catcher or a sort of unicorn who catches and also plays several other positions.

4. Quinn Priester, RHP (No. 64)
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 18 in 2019

Priester missed the first half of the year with an oblique injury, but the Pirates used his time off the mound to tweak his delivery, improving his back hip rotation to get him greater range of motion and allowing him to get more of his power from his lower half. He’s a better pitcher for it, working now with a four-pitch mix — he’ll probably have to emphasize his offspeed stuff over his 92-96 mph fastball, which plays down from its velocity. His curve and changeup are both above-average pitches, with the curve showing above-average depth and good spin rates, while the changeup has some tumble to it and helps keep lefties off his fastball. He’ll mix in an average slider, and can even show a two-seamer with sink. His command keeps improving and he’ll probably end up with 55 or better, which he’ll need given the fastball’s lack of strong secondary characteristics. He’s close to ready, though, and has a high floor as a back-end starter, with mid-rotation likely and a chance he can be a No. 2 if any of those offspeed pitches becomes a true swing-and-miss offering.

5. Bubba Chandler, RHP (No. 100)
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 72 in 2021

Chandler was a well over-slot signing by the Pirates in the 2021 haul where they took Henry Davis at 1-1 and signed him to a deal $3 million under slot so they could sign Chandler, Anthony Solometo, and Lonnie White, three high school kids with first-round interest from other clubs. Chandler took a step forward this year, coming into spring training throwing harder and also taller than he’d been, then developing further over the year to where he was hitting 99 mph with huge induced vertical break and landing his breaking ball better than ever. He’s still hitting a little bit, as he was a two-way prospect in high school with power, but his future is clearly on the mound, and he needs to focus just on pitching as he’s far from a finished product — he walked 18 men in 26 innings after a promotion to Low A, a level where he could still blow guys away with pure stuff if he’s close to the zone. He’s a tremendous athlete with a great delivery and easy velocity. You can dream on this package, even though he’s a long way from the majors.

6. Anthony Solometo, LHP
Age: 20 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 37 in 2021


Part of the Pirates’ big prospect haul in the 2021 draft, Solometo threw 47 2/3 innings in Low A last year for his pro debut, with good-not-incredible results. He’s still up to 94-95 mph and showed more feel for his changeup than he did in high school, while he’s a little caught in between on the breaking ball now. His delivery is still very funky, with some injury risk from it, but it’s part of why he’s so tough on lefties. He had a hard time working from the stretch last year, which may be because he allowed so few baserunners playing high school competition in New Jersey. There’s still No. 2 starter upside here but he’s a little further away than I thought on draft day.

7. Michael Burrows, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 324 in 2018

Burrows has a high-riding fastball that he commands well to the top of the zone, generating some weaker contact with it even though he doesn’t have a plus second pitch. His curveball is huge but he has to come in really high with it to land it for a strike, so his changeup is probably his best offspeed pitch, making him very north-south with his stuff. A slider or cutter could help him work east-west a little more, although he could pitch in a bullpen right now with his current stuff. He does hold his velocity deep enough into games to project as a starter if he gets a different breaking ball.

8. Liover Peguero, SS
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017

Peguero can make hard contact but his swing is too flat to turn that into power, and he got way too aggressive at the plate last year, with pitchers attacking him with first-pitch breaking stuff he’d go after way too often. He’s a plus runner who can play short and has good instincts on both sides of the ball, but he has to get the ball in the air more often and make better swing decisions early in counts. He’ll be 22 this year, so there’s time, but last year was a step backward.

9. Nick Gonzales, 2B
Age: 24 | 5-10 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 7 in 2020

Gonzales missed over two months last year with plantar fasciitis, but around that absence he did post a somewhat better performance in Double A than he had the year before. He’s a dead fastball hitter with a strong pull orientation, although he does have power the other way and could change his outlook substantially if he picked up offspeed stuff better. He just misses too much, even in-zone, when pitchers go away from the fastball. He’s a fringy defender at second who played some third last year and was fringy there as well. There’s a path to a regular here, even an above-average one, if he addresses a couple of key deficiencies in his approach.

10. Malcom Nuñez, 1B
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018


Acquired in a midseason trade that sent José Quintana to St. Louis, Nuñez has big power and a very solid approach at the plate, enough to think he could be a regular at first or DH, but that’s all that’s open to him, as he doesn’t have the agility or speed for anywhere else. His hands are good and he has a strong arm, for what that’s worth at first. The bat is intriguing, though; he gets on top of the ball a bit too much, hitting more groundballs than he should, but he’s very strong and hits hard enough to be a 20-25 homer guy. With his on-base skills, that would make him a possible regular at first.

11. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 240 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018

Ortiz has a very loose, easy arm, repeating his long arm stroke enough for average control, and he sits 95-97 mph and touches 99 with the fastball. He mostly works with a power mid-80s slider that he can throw in the zone or use for a chase, and he holds his stuff deep into games. He has a changeup but it’s not very effective, and he was very vulnerable to lefties in Double A and in his brief time in the majors last year. He also gave up 19 homers in Double A, sixth-most in the Eastern League last year, which nobody with his stuff should do. You have to develop him as a starter because he has two plus pitches that he can maintain for 6+ innings, but he needs a third pitch and better fastball command to be a starter in the big leagues.

12. Ji-Hwan Bae, SS
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018

With Oneil Cruz in Triple A for a good part of last season, Bae slid over to second base and played some center, the latter of which always made sense since Bae is an 80 runner. He can play shortstop, though, and he has excellent bat speed, with a short, sharp stroke that produces contact but no power, with a lot of groundballs and good-not-great exit velocities. I know a lot of scouts who really like him as a regular or a super-sub who plays short, second, and center. I’ve mentioned this before, but Bae was suspended by MLB for 30 games in 2019 after he was convicted of assaulting his then-girlfriend in South Korea in 2017.

13. Thomas Harrington, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 36 in 2022

Harrington was the Pirates’ second pick in 2022, as a command and control guy with some groundball tendencies, working with three average pitches but no real out pitch among them. His velocity tapered off in his last start of the spring for Campbell, which I’m sure led to the Pirates giving him the summer off. If he just gets back to 91-94 mph, he’s a potential back-end starter.

14. Jared Jones, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 44 in 2020


Jones has always been an athlete who threw hard, but made some real progress last year as a pitcher, improving his slider, which was his worst pitch, to the point where it’s a usable weapon against righties now. He had some bad luck on balls in play and was a victim of Greensboro’s hitter-friendly home park, including a hard infield surface, which obscured some of the improvements in his stuff and command. He holds his stuff well and has learned to be a little more efficient within his outings, so there’s starter upside here, and we should get a better read on whether that’s mid-rotation when he pitches for Double-A Altoona this year.

15. Jared Triolo, SS/3B
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 212 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 72 in 2019

The pandemic really did a number on 2019 college draftees, didn’t it? Triolo had a solid year in Double A in 2022, hitting .282/.376/.419, with very good defense at third and solid defense at short. But he was 24, and time’s a-wastin’, with prospects coming up behind him while he’s just not quite ready for the majors. If he makes slightly harder contact, he could be at least a good super-sub. I like him more than the performance might imply because he does a lot of smaller things well (defense and baserunning) with a solid approach.

16. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 31 in 2020

Mlodzinski can show three pitches, although the two secondaries are inconsistent; the day I caught Mlodzinski in Double A his breaking ball was a 55 but the changeup was below average. I could see a back-end starter here, but he needs either more stuff or more fastball command to be better than that.

17. Matt Gorski, OF
Age: 25 | 6-4 | 198 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 57 in 2019

Gorski was a reach as a second-round pick in 2019, and didn’t do anything at all to change that through the end of last season, but a swing change worked wonders and he took off in 2022. He repeated High A and destroyed it as a 24-year-old, then kept up the power in Double A, where he also struck out 30 percent of the time. There’s some chase and a real issue when pitchers change speeds on him, which can only get better if he gets more reps. He’s an incredible athlete who runs well and can go get the ball in center. He has to make more contact to be anything, but if he’s anything, he should have real value as a power/speed guy who can handle center.

18. Tsung-Che Cheng, SS
Age: 21 | 5-7 | 154 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019

Cheng is a plus-plus defender at short and can run, with a very good approach at the plate, but he’s really small. He might be a little stronger than that, but he’s going to have to prove he can hit better pitching as he moves up the ladder. He did hit .270/.376/.418 for Low-A Bradenton last year, although some of that slug came from his speed (like 7 triples, most in the Florida State League).

19. Axiel Plaz, C
Age: 17 | 5-11 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2022

A Venezuelan catcher who signed last January for $350,000, Plaz went off last summer in the DSL, hitting .382/.500/.706 in 86 plate appearances as a 16-year-old. He does have plus raw power and arm strength, with a good build for a catcher. It’s a tiny sample, but he was second in the DSL in average and slugging behind a guy who was 20, and fourth in OBP. I’m curious.

20. Yordany de los Santos, SS
Age: 18 | 6-1 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2022

De los Santos signed last January for $1.2 million and had a nice debut in the DSL, drawing a bunch of walks and playing strong defense at short. He has a strong reputation for his instincts, allowing him to steal bases at a good clip despite average speed. His body isn’t ideal for shortstop, and if he fills out, he might gain power but move to third.

Others of note
Outfielder Lonnie White hurt the UCL in his throwing arm and had a hamstring injury, limiting him to just two games all summer. Signed away from a scholarship to play football at Penn State, White’s a physical specimen who was coming into some power but lost speed as he filled out. At this point, it’s all TBD given how little he’s played in the minors … Third baseman Dariel Lopez had a superficially big year as a 20-year-old for High-A Greensboro, but 15 of his 19 homers came in their homer-friendly ballpark. He does have real juice, but even with that, he had a 5 percent walk rate and isn’t a lock to stay at third … Right-hander Kyle Nicolas was one of the three players acquired last winter for catcher Jacob Stallings; he’s 92-96 mph with two above-average breaking balls, but with no real changeup and below-average fastball command, he’s destined for relief … Outfielder Connor Scott, a former first-rounder, was also in the Stallings deal, but hit .247/.308/.390 as a 22-year-old in Double A. He doesn’t impact the ball at all and he’s lost the speed he had as a teenager. Barring a real physical change, he’s an org guy … Lefty Hunter Barco blew out his elbow last spring for the University of Florida, just as he was trending up toward the first round. He’s a probable reliever, coming from a low 3/4 slot with cross-body action that makes him death to left-handed batters but gives righties a long time to see the ball … Fourth-round pick Michael Kennedy only turned 18 in November, four months after the draft, and also has a cross-body delivery. He’ll show an average fastball and 55 slider, but he’s slight and undersized and may be a very long-term development guy … Center fielder Sammy Siani is a plus runner and defender but he’s swinging straight up in the air at this point after some launch angle whisperer got a hold of him. With his speed, he should be going for line drives and even some groundballs, letting his legs do some of the work. He did have a very nice winter in the Australian Baseball League, although hitting 8 homers there might give him the wrong idea … Outfielder Shalin Polanco is very strong, posting 110 mph exit velocities, but he’s behind as a hitter and needs reps to improve his feel for all parts of the game. Signed in January 2021 for $2.35 million, he has big tools to dream on … Catcher Abrahan Gutierrez lost a lot of playing time to Davis and Rodriguez but he is a decent prospect in his own right as a solid receiver with some pull-side power … Reliever JC Flowers has a possible out pitch in his slider that he also throws for strikes. He’s a good athlete who was a position player at Florida State until his junior year, and he has enough of a changeup that he got lefties out as well, giving him a chance to be at least a decent middle reliever … Right-hander Colin Selby, drafted in the 16th round out of Randolph-Macon College in — wait, I’ll let you guess what state it’s in, because I didn’t know. Anyway, he’s up to 97 with a wicked slider that’s a legit out pitch. It’s one inning only, and I worry the fastball’s a little true, but the slider is a hammer.

2023 impact
If they trade Bryan Reynolds, Bae is the next man up in center. Gonzales and Peguero might get looks at second base. Ortiz, Selby, Mlodzinski, and Nicolas might all get shots in relief. Burrows should get some turns in the rotation this summer.

The fallen
Their 2018 first-round pick Travis Swaggerty missed 2020 to the pandemic, jumped to Triple A, got hurt in his 12th game, had surgery on his shoulder that ended his season, and returned this year with 48 total plate appearances in the previous 30 months. He looked rusty for a lot of the season, although he did get a cup of coffee in the majors. He’s still a plus runner and can go get it in the outfield. His swing has become so flat, after years of trying to find the right balance, that all he does is hit medium-quality groundballs. At this point, the former top-100 prospect might just be a platoon center fielder and pinch runner.

Sleeper
Jared Jones might be on the cusp of something big here, especially if the ballpark really was the source of some of his struggles in 2022. Look at Plaz as a deep sleeper if you want a longer view.

[Dan_Stonerook]

That sure makes you believe the future could be bright.

[GhostOfPitthorn]

That's become the popular refrain about every five years or so...the future looks bright.

I hope for a day when the future meets the present and we can say the chances for the upcoming season looks bright.

[GreenWeenie]

It's always the popular refrain.

I've become stunningly amazed with how so many folks who claim to have been following the team about as long as I have fall for it.

[Shedman]

Me2. Every year there is some suspect in the system that is going to solve all of our problems in the future. And the can gets kicked down the road for another year.

[statscbl]

There needs to be a mix of a players from a good farm system and spending money on talent. 2015 the Pirates were 98-64 with the following roster. 14 of the 17 best players were a result of a good farm system. 2 were good free agent signings and one was an international signing.

C- F Cerveilli (traded for Justin Wilson who was once in the Pirates farm system)
1B-P Alvarez (Pirates farm system)
2B-N Walker (Pirates farm system)
SS-J Mercer (Pirates farm system)
3B-JH Kang (international signing)
LF-S Marte (Pirates farm system)
CF-A McCutchen (Pirates farm system)
RF-G Polanco (Pirates farm system)
UT-J Harrison (Pirates farm system via trade from Cubs system)

SP-G Cole (Pirates farm system)
SP-F Liriano (free agent signing)
SP-J Locke (Pirates farm system)
SP-AJ Burnett(free agent signing)
SP-C Morton (Pirates farm system)
RP-M Melancon (trade for veteran J Hanrahan and Brock Holt once in the Pirates farm system)
RP-T Watson (Pirates farm system)
RP-J Hughes (Pirates farm system)

[GhostOfPitthorn]

Not to be a twit to your very valid point, but Locke and Morton (along with Gorkys Hernandez) came from Atlanta for Nate McLouth. Also, A.J. Burnett came from the Yankees in exchange for two prospects and paying for most of his Yankees contract.

That's the third element...making sound trades.

[Dan_Stonerook]

Not to be a twit to your very valid point, but Locke and Morton (along with Gorkys Hernandez) came from Atlanta for Nate McLouth. Also, A.J. Burnett came from the Yankees in exchange for two prospects and paying for most of his Yankees contract.

That's the third element...making sound trades.

Burnett left Pittsburgh for Philly in 2014. He signed back with Pittsburgh in 2015.

You're both kinda right.

[statscbl]

Not to be a twit to your very valid point, but Locke and Morton (along with Gorkys Hernandez) came from Atlanta for Nate McLouth. Also, A.J. Burnett came from the Yankees in exchange for two prospects and paying for most of his Yankees contract.

That's the third element...making sound trades.

Not a twit at all. The point is Locke and Morton were not established players, but went from the Braves to the Pirates farm system as both spent time in the minors with the Pirates before becoming established. Some of the Pirates top current major league players Oneil Cruz, Roansy Conteras, Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar and Jack Suwinski all came vis trade to the farm system. They were just minor league prospects when we got them. The current top 10 from our farm system include, Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero and Malcom Nunez all acquired by trade.

[GhostOfPitthorn]

Not to be a twit to your very valid point, but Locke and Morton (along with Gorkys Hernandez) came from Atlanta for Nate McLouth. Also, A.J. Burnett came from the Yankees in exchange for two prospects and paying for most of his Yankees contract.

That's the third element...making sound trades.

Not a twit at all. The point is Locke and Morton were not established players, but went from the Braves to the Pirates farm system as both spent time in the minors with the Pirates before becoming established. Some of the Pirates top current major league players Oneil Cruz, Roansy Conteras, Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar and Jack Suwinski all came vis trade to the farm system. They were just minor league prospects when we got them. The current top 10 from our farm system include, Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero and Malcom Nunez all acquired by trade.

Yeah, I felt like I was playing a little semantics there, so that's why I was being self deprecating.

[statscbl]

That's become the popular refrain about every five years or so...the future looks bright.

I hope for a day when the future meets the present and we can say the chances for the upcoming season looks bright.

I hope so too. I hear what you are saying. Having a good farm system is just the first small step in building a winner.

[GreenWeenie]

There needs to be a mix of a players from a good farm system and spending money on talent. 2015 the Pirates were 98-64 with the following roster. 14 of the 17 best players were a result of a good farm system. 2 were good free agent signings and one was an international signing.

C- F Cerveilli (traded for Justin Wilson who was once in the Pirates farm system)
1B-P Alvarez (Pirates farm system)
2B-N Walker (Pirates farm system)
SS-J Mercer (Pirates farm system)
3B-JH Kang (international signing)
LF-S Marte (Pirates farm system)
CF-A McCutchen (Pirates farm system)
RF-G Polanco (Pirates farm system)
UT-J Harrison (Pirates farm system via trade from Cubs system)

SP-G Cole (Pirates farm system)
SP-F Liriano (free agent signing)
SP-J Locke (Pirates farm system)
SP-AJ Burnett(free agent signing)
SP-C Morton (Pirates farm system)
RP-M Melancon (trade for veteran J Hanrahan and Brock Holt once in the Pirates farm system)
RP-T Watson (Pirates farm system)
RP-J Hughes (Pirates farm system)

Using these facts proves both sides of the argument, not only one side.

This was the third year of success. The first (turn around) year had Russell Martin, catcher, who was an external acquisition. I think that it also had Wandy Rodriguez, SP, external, too.

More importantly, though, is that none of those rosters either won the division or advanced very far after the end of RS play.

Internal development takes a club only so far, more often than not.

Better than losing 100 games by a long shot, no question, but if we want more than that, we must not rely exclusively on it.

Other teams have been more than happy to take talent off our hands. Turnabout is fair play, and it's well beyond high time that we retaliate rather than playing dead.

Taken a step further, these teams' manager wasn't an OJT.

[GreenWeenie]

Our problem those years was that all that it took to neuter us was one stud pitcher (Arrieta, Madbum) and we didn't have that kind of stud. Cole wasn't ready for that yet.

Invest in a big bat. Invest in that stud pitcher, and I think the scale gets tipped in our favor, especially at home.

Opportunity not fully realized.

Afterwards, the kitchen sink of issues- dumps, injuries, flame outs, age.....you name it.