Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Talk Pittsburgh Pirates baseball with fans from around the world. Discuss major league and minor league baseball as well.
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statscbl
Posts: 472
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:31 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by statscbl »

It is a catch 22 when signing guys early in the contract. If Cruz hits .190 next year with 40 errors, we just wasted our money sooner than we had to. If Cruz improves on his season and puts together a 30 30 season, his market value might have tripled (or priced himself out of our market). We all have our opinions on Cruz, but I say he is worth the gamble.

Even though Ke'Bryan hit .244 this year, I am glad we locked him up long-term. Let's lock up our young core. There is more on the way. Then fill in the pieces like we did with guys like AJ Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin...etc
GreenWeenie
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:16 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by GreenWeenie »

Nothing I've heard of BOB makes me think that he's the gambling type. For what- decades?- what's been said or written of him makes me think that he's fairly conservative in his approaches. When a puff piece is written about the team, they use words like "innovative." The innovations put us in last place.

Be careful for what you wish. I don't want to be the 2016 Pirates. I want to be the 2022 Phillies or Astros, though I'd settle for being the 2022 Padres or Yankees, too.

We don't have any McCutchen. We don't have any Martin. We don't have any pitcher. We don't have any Walker, and I'm not sure that we have a manager today.

The best we have is Reynolds, and for maybe months. As good as Hayes is defensively, we've committed to a third baseman with hardly any power. Not sure I'm satisfied with that. (Guys who hit hard get paid money.)

What the Pirates should do- and won't- is to add to whatever decent talent that may come- Cruz is unknown- and supplement them with guys like Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Justin Verlander, Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Josh Hader.

In other words, the Pirates need to be a MLB club, not merely a Nutting investment.
val
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:45 pm

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by val »

GreenWeenie wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 10:48 am

As for the RBI stats, the mere fact that he drove in a high percentage of his team's runs tells me more about his teammates and Ben Cherington than it tells me about him.

Get better guys.
Well, if you're saying it's sad that the Pirates scored less than 600 runs last year, well, I'm with you.

But if Cruz outperforms his teammates, well, I don't know what to say. Elite guys are always going to vastly outperform their teammates. Unless you don't want elite players here.

Cruz was a 2.3 WAR guy over 87 games. Extrapolating that over 162 means he was somewhere north of 4.0 WAR. In the last seven years, you know, since we've sucked, we've only had four field players reach 4.0. Taillon had a 4.5 year there. But just four. The entire team, over that span, has had only 23 2.0 WAR players and Cruz did that in half a season. Heck, there are only 50 some 4.0 players in the major leagues. (Yeah, yeah, I know, there are lots of guys like Cruz with sub 4.0 WAR who would have made it if they had more games under their belt. Marte was at 3.8 with just 118 games played, but still.)

We need better guys. It's just we've got one in Cruz. We're not going to go out and get anyone substantial, so we have to take the ones already sitting in our lap. I know talent projection is a crap shoot -- 22 players were picked ahead of Judge, 12 before Trout, and two guys before Michael Jordan -- and I share your disdain for our ownership, but it seems to me that Cruz has more than enough potential to be worth the risk.

I mean, realistically, who are we going to get next year who is going to move the needle any?
Shedman
Posts: 393
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2021 7:08 pm

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by Shedman »

I mean, realistically, who are we going to get next year who is going to move the needle any?

That sounds a lot like #3.
GreenWeenie
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:16 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by GreenWeenie »

Shedman wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 8:29 pm I mean, realistically, who are we going to get next year who is going to move the needle any?

After suffering through the first three seasons of Ben Cherington and his lackluster results in recent previous places, I would expect him to get off his hind end to provide the answer.

Pirates fans haven't held any feet to fires. So, we get what we get.

It's up to the brass to convince MLB players, agents, and spouses that the Pirates are The Team To Come To.

Right now, the Credibility Factor's low. The reputation needs to improve- now.
statscbl
Posts: 472
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:31 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by statscbl »

GreenWeenie wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:09 pm I want to be the 2022 Phillies or Astros,
The Astros from 2005 to 2010 were in the top half of the majors in spending every year, but overall were a little below .500 in winning. They were stuck in mediocrity and decided to break it all down by trading away their veterans for prospects and keep building their farm system through the draft.

From 2011 to 2013 they were the worst team in baseball with records of 56-106, 55-107 and 51-111.
From 2012 to 2106 they were last in the majors in team spending. Their payrolls ranked 28th, 30th, 30th, 29th and 30th those years.

From 2017 to 2022, they have averaged over 102 wins a season, the best in the American League.
During that time, their offense has been built primarily on homegrown players. Their top 6 this year(WAR) are all homegrown (Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Chas McCormick). Three of their top four pitchers are all home grown.

During that time, the Astros have been willing to lock up and pay big dollars for their homegrown players, even though they did not keep Springer or Correa.
Also during that time, the Astros were willing to trade from their deep farm system or sign some of the top free agent pitchers usually for short-term. Guys like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and good bullpen pitchers all wee all huge parts in their success..
Over the last 5 full seasons the Astros have ranked 18th, 11th,8th ,7th and currently 11th in team payroll.
GreenWeenie
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:16 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by GreenWeenie »

For better or for worse, we aren't the Astros. We will be when we develop and pay to keep and/or acquire talent like the Astros have.

Not sure that we've developed enough, and we sure haven't paid enough over the years to do that.

For every guy who's amounted to anything, we've had two or three panflashers. For that reason, I'd be prudent with whom I'd bank on. Being prudent with Cruz is a decision I'm comfortable with.
statscbl
Posts: 472
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:31 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by statscbl »

-The Astros have used this model as about successful as any team in baseball. My concern is there are too many teams trying to follow this model that it now dilutes the prospect talent that has to be shared amongst many teams.
-You are correct that there will be flops along the way the way we judge talent. The Astros over the last ten or so years have had number one prospects Mark Appel, Forrest Whitley, AJ Reed and Jon Singleton all fall in the flop category.
-I agree 100% that how we develop these guys might be the biggest factor. This was a very weak area for up in my opinion about 7 years ago. What I have seen in the minors the last couple years has been very encouraging and unexpected with guys like Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows, Ji Hwan Bae, Matt Gorski and more.
-The Pirates won 94 games in 2013 and were 20th in team payroll and followed that up with 88 wins in 2014 and 98 wins in 2015. The Astros won 101 games in 2017 and were 18th in team salary. Then they spent more and got even better.
-You hit the nail on the head that eventually WE HAVE TO ACQUIRE TOP TALENT through trade or free agency. The big question is when. Some people think now. I think in another year or so. I think the many feel it doesn't matter because Bob will never spend the money regardless how close we are.
GreenWeenie
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:16 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by GreenWeenie »

Agree with just about all, and your first paragraph says a lot.

Not bashing the Pirates. It just a fact that when 30 competitors do the same thing, it's hard to differentiate.

To expect an executive team to be the best of eight is one thing. To be the best of 30 is a tall task.

Of the four big pro team sports, MLB has got to be the hardest to rely mostly on internal growth. In two others- NBA and NHL- a few dominant guys is what it takes. In the NFL, a skilled QB, protection, and a pass rush can do it.

Baseball? At some point, teams need to trade or recruit. The average roster ages of world champions is usually 28 and 29. Experience matters.
Shedman
Posts: 393
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2021 7:08 pm

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by Shedman »

I am not falling for this one again. We are always compared to some other team which gets their home grown talent and then adds some major league players to compete. In Pittsburgh under Nutting, we get our home grown talent and then dump them before they become FA and never add any first line FA and then rinse and repeat. The only thing I am concerned about is what they do right now to improve the team next year. We need a 1B, a 3B, and a couple pitchers. Cherington needs to act like a GM and go out and get them with no excuses and alibis.
GreenWeenie
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:16 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by GreenWeenie »

You know that I'm not falling for it, either. Nothing over the past 20 years or more of Nutting ownership makes me think that we're as committed to go as far as the Astros have,
statscbl
Posts: 472
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:31 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by statscbl »

Shedman wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:19 pm We need a 1B, a 3B, and a couple pitchers. .
-Agree on getting a first baseman for next year, even though I want to see Andujar get some at bats. It would surprise me if he was a total flop or an all-star next year. I think minor leaguer Malcom Nunez has a shot to be a good major league first baseman, but who knows.
-Agree on getting a couple pitchers. I would prefer to get starting pitching as some of our current starters could be our answer to a weak bullpen.
-Not agreeing on giving up on Ke'Bryan Hayes. This gold glove finalist makes our pitchers better. He also had 18 stolen bases last year when he had some nagging injuries. Now I know his hitting has not shown much pop at all. Maybe getting better hitter around him will help.
GreenWeenie
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:16 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by GreenWeenie »

You know who makes pitchers even better?

Guys who hit home runs.
statscbl
Posts: 472
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:31 am

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by statscbl »

GreenWeenie wrote: Fri Nov 04, 2022 5:05 am You know who makes pitchers even better?

Guys who hit home runs.
I know I am going to get laughed at for this one, but I would like to see the Pirates go out and make a 6 year $240 million offer to Aaron Judge. The Pirates would still be in the bottom 6 to 8 teams in team payroll if we did that. That is how low our payroll is at this point.
Shedman
Posts: 393
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2021 7:08 pm

Re: Off Season 2022-2023 thread

Post by Shedman »

Now the Yankees exercise their option on Luis Severino for a 3. What say you pittstop?

The standings are now:

Braves -Strider(3.5)...............................................................................................................................................................3.5
Yankees - Severino(3).............................................................................................................................................................3.0
Cardinals - Wainwright(2.5).....................................................................................................................................................2.5

Looks like Cherington is doing a disappearing act again.
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