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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:18 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Willton wrote:
Bedard isn't going anywhere. Unlike Correia, Bedard can get batters out at the plate. Aside from fragility, Bedard's primary problem is that his control isn't sharp and he throws too many pitches per inning. However, the fact that he strikes out nearly a batter an inning mitigates his shaky control. He's had a few bad starts lately, but that's not reason to dump him in favor of a lesser pitcher like Correia.


Really? Lesser Pitcher?? Hmmm

One guy is 4-6. The other is 4-9. Which of those stats is better?

Let me remind you that wins and losses for individual pitchers are meaningless. The reason Correia has fewer losses than Bedard does is because Correia gets more run support (4.1 runs per game) than Bedard does (3.6 runs per game). So, unless you're claiming that Correia is somehow able to stimulate offense from the hitters, your comparison here is bunk.

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One guy has 4.32 ERA. The other has 4.57. Which of those is better?

That's a very slim margin, and it's largely driven by luck. Observe:

Batting average on balls in play ("BABIP") for Correia: .256
BABIP for Bedard: .321

What does this mean? It means that the defense has been more efficient at turning batted balls into outs behind Correia than it has behind Bedard. I fail to see how the pitchers can be credited/blamed for that.

Oh, and while we're at it, Bedard has given up only 7 HRs this season. Correia has given up 14.

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One guys pitched 85 innings in 15 starts. The ohter 82 in 16 starts. Which of those is better?

Correia is. I submit that it is because he has been more fortunate with the defense behind him than Bedard has.

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One has a .263 BAA. The other .268. Which of those is better?

Again, I cite the BABIP for each pitcher above. In order for a batted ball to land for a hit, it has to avoid the defenders long enough for the batter to reach first base. The defense has played superbly behind Correia while not doing so behind Bedard, and yet, their respective BAAs are very close. Why? Because Correia gives up far more batted balls than Bedard does.

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One has 1.30 whip while the other has 1.48. Which of those numbers is better?

Score one for Correia: he has better control.

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One of them has 25 BB while the other has 36. I forget...is less or more walks better?

See above.

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One guy has 77 strikeouts while the other has only 34. Oh, yeah I see why Bedard is better.

That's exactly why Bedard is better: he is able to get batters out without needing the defense's help.

Oh, and another reason Bedard is better? He gives up half as many HRs as Correia does.

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So, how is it that Bedard can get batters out and Correia can't? The numbers certainly do not reflect that. Watching them pitch certainly doesn't reflect that. Can you explain to me exactly how Correia is a lesser pitcher?

Feel free to read the above. I'll sum it up for you: Bedard strikes out far more batters per 9 innings than Correia does, and Bedard keeps the ball in the yard better than Correia does. Correia has been the beneficiary of a significant amount of luck this season. That luck is likely to run out as the season progresses. I would prefer if the Pirates were to foreclose that from happening by either dealing him, relegating him to the bullpen, or dropping him altogether.

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:20 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Animal wrote:
Willton wrote:
Bedard isn't going anywhere. Unlike Correia, Bedard can get batters out at the plate. Aside from fragility, Bedard's primary problem is that his control isn't sharp and he throws too many pitches per inning. However, the fact that he strikes out nearly a batter an inning mitigates his shaky control. He's had a few bad starts lately, but that's not reason to dump him in favor of a lesser pitcher like Correia.


Really? Lesser Pitcher?? Hmmm

One guy is 4-6. The other is 4-9. Which of those stats is better?
One guy has 4.32 ERA. The other has 4.57. Which of those is better?
One guys pitched 85 innings in 15 starts. The ohter 82 in 16 starts. Which of those is better?
One has a .263 BAA. The other .268. Which of those is better?
One has 1.30 whip while the other has 1.48. Which of those numbers is better?
One of them has 25 BB while the other has 36. I forget...is less or more walks better?
One guy has 77 strikeouts while the other has only 34. Oh, yeah I see why Bedard is better.

So, how is it that Bedard can get batters out and Correia can't? The numbers certainly do not reflect that. Watching them pitch certainly doesn't reflect that. Can you explain to me exactly how Correia is a lesser pitcher?


One of those guys has a FIP of 5.35 (career 4.61), the other has a FIP of 3.56 (career 3.65).
One of them gives up 1.48 HR/9, the other gives up .69.
One of them has a WAR of -.3 (4.4 career), the other is at 1.3 (22.7 career).
One of those guys is .042 below his career BABIP, the other is .016 above.
By the way, Bedard's ERA is 4.27, not 4.57. That puts him below Correia's 4.32.

Ask every GM in the league if they'd rather have Bedard or Correia and I bet you get 30 guys who say Bedard. I'm not saying Bedard has been pitching well but to say Correia is a better pitcher is ludicrous.

You're going to have to explain each one of those to Animal. He likely does not know what those acronyms mean.

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:07 am 
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It's quite possible that Bedard's arm is just tired and he needs rest. It's rare for him to go this long without a DL trip and lucky for BUrgh the AS Break is just around the corner.

As a Pac NW'er, I don't need to look at his stats to remember the infrequency of his play, but if you check his game logs Bedard usually has at least one two-week break by July and/or breaks down after July.

The fact that his woes are on the mound are actually a blessing for the Bucs.

If he's still struggling after the break we'll see what happens.

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:01 am 
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Let's take a look at these guys in their past 10 starts. I see stats above that are greatly skewed by Bedard's great first two months of the season. I know those starts are as meaningful as the ones now, but your confidence in Bedard right now has to be less than the confidence you have in Correia. Bedard's ERA has gone from 2.5 to now 4.5 in the past two months.
His starts:
1 IP - left with injury;
6IP 4ER lost;
6IP 4ER ND;
6IP 0ER W;
3 2/3 IP 5ER L;
7IP 2ER W
3 1/3 7ER L
6IP 1ER ND
6IP 4ER L
4 2/3 IP 5ER L

Come on, that's brutal. That's six god-awful starts and three quality starts, but he leaves 8 innings on the table in the three good starts and leaves a game after one inning. I hope the guy's battling injury, because if not, and he's just been terrible, I don't think I want the guy pitching for me. Actually, either way I don't want him pitching. If you have a pitcher and you say 2/3 of his starts are gonna be 4ER and he won't make it to the seventh, I say let's find someone else.

I don't really like Correia all that much either, he has failed to pitch deep into any of his games, but I don't see as much epic failure with him.

His starts:
7IP 3ER L
3 2/3 6ER L
6IP 3ER L
6 1/3 2ER ND
5IP 3ER ND
5 2/3 2ER W
6 IP 4ER L
5 1/3 0ER W
6IP 2ER ND
5 IP 5ER W

Here we have 3 really bad starts, but 5 quality starts with a couple of eh.. ones thrown in. This is what we expect of Correia, isn't it? For your weakest starter to have half of his games be quality starts, I'll take that. The expectation for Bedard has to be much higher. He has had more success over his career and has better overall numbers. For a guy who was supposed to be a key part of the rotation he is under performing for me. 3/10 quality starts for two months just doesn't cut it for me and I would hope it wouldn't for you either.


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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:42 am 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Animal wrote:
Willton wrote:
Bedard isn't going anywhere. Unlike Correia, Bedard can get batters out at the plate. Aside from fragility, Bedard's primary problem is that his control isn't sharp and he throws too many pitches per inning. However, the fact that he strikes out nearly a batter an inning mitigates his shaky control. He's had a few bad starts lately, but that's not reason to dump him in favor of a lesser pitcher like Correia.


Really? Lesser Pitcher?? Hmmm

One guy is 4-6. The other is 4-9. Which of those stats is better?
One guy has 4.32 ERA. The other has 4.57. Which of those is better?
One guys pitched 85 innings in 15 starts. The ohter 82 in 16 starts. Which of those is better?
One has a .263 BAA. The other .268. Which of those is better?
One has 1.30 whip while the other has 1.48. Which of those numbers is better?
One of them has 25 BB while the other has 36. I forget...is less or more walks better?
One guy has 77 strikeouts while the other has only 34. Oh, yeah I see why Bedard is better.

So, how is it that Bedard can get batters out and Correia can't? The numbers certainly do not reflect that. Watching them pitch certainly doesn't reflect that. Can you explain to me exactly how Correia is a lesser pitcher?


One of those guys has a FIP of 5.35 (career 4.61), the other has a FIP of 3.56 (career 3.65).
One of them gives up 1.48 HR/9, the other gives up .69.
One of them has a WAR of -.3 (4.4 career), the other is at 1.3 (22.7 career).
One of those guys is .042 below his career BABIP, the other is .016 above.
By the way, Bedard's ERA is 4.27, not 4.57. That puts him below Correia's 4.32.

Ask every GM in the league if they'd rather have Bedard or Correia and I bet you get 30 guys who say Bedard. I'm not saying Bedard has been pitching well but to say Correia is a better pitcher is ludicrous.



Better look again Jolly Roger..after yet another dismal start today, Bedard's ERA IS 4.57. So I suppose that throws off all your other stats too. I personally don't give a crap about who gives up more HR, career stats, or anything else...just who has been stinkier this year, and clearly that is Bedard. Again, watch the games and you can SEE that. The numbers, at least the ones that MEAN something, back it up. And Bedard had a really good first month, too. Correia has been MUCH better.

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:47 am 
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You guys are just acting idiotic. Who cares if Bedard strikes out more batters or gives up less HR. Those stats might actually MEAN SOMETHING, if he were not so bad with everything else. Yes, I know many of you consider wins and losses not a very good statistic. Geez, I wonder why the league even keeps them. Why even have standings? But anyway, in every way, shape, and form, Correia has been a better pitcher so far this year, and extremely better over past two months.

So, bury your heads in the sand if you wish. Cite all your new statistics. But the bottom line is plain and simple. Correia has done so much more to help the Pirates win games than Bedard. It IS still about winning games, right, or did I miss something new?

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:58 am 
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I think Correia and Bedard are cut from the same mold. They're not dominating pitchers but do give the team a chance to win on most occasions. That's provided your team (in this case the Pirates) provide sufficient run support (at least 4 or 5 runs).

The only big difference I see between the two, as far as I'm concerned, is serving up the gopher ball. That star goes to Correia.

Also, Bedard DOES strike out more batters and has a better chance to get out of jam than does Correia.

I guess I'm building a case for Bedard over Correia which I can live with. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:18 am 
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My apologies, fangraphs and BA had yet to update their numbers when I looked last night. Here are the revised numbers.

One of those guys has a FIP of 5.35 (career 4.61), the other has a FIP of 3.86 (career 3.65).
One of them gives up 1.48 HR/9, the other gives up .87.
One of them has a WAR of -.3 (4.4 career), the other is at 1.1 (22.5 career).
One of those guys is .042 below his career BABIP, the other is .02 above.

To suggest that those numbers don't mean something simply because they don't support your argument is- to use your word- idiotic. Your argument looks at the past and looks at the "numbers that mean something" without considering the luck that Correia has benefited from. My argument looks at their numbers and takes into consideration statistics developed by dedicated mathematicians tasked with simplifying peripheral numbers to allow the fan to make sense of them. I ask that you remember that I was the one who made the thread questioning Bedard's effectiveness as of late. I realize that he hasn't been great lately but he is still a better pitcher than Kevin Correia.

The funny thing about your argument is that those "numbers that mean something" suddenly don't mean something when it comes to discussing Brad Lincoln and whether or not he should be in the bullpen or rotation because his numbers clearly show that he does worse than both Bedard and Correia while in the rotation. But anyways, that's not what this discussion is about.

I would almost guarantee that if we were to put up a poll asking the question: "It's Game 163, the Pittsburgh Pirates need to win this game to get the second wild card spot and the only available pitchers are Correia and Bedard, who do you choose?" that the majority of posters here (hell, I'm sure the Bucs Dugout guys could post the same question and get the same results) would pick Bedard. If that's idiotic, fine but coming from the guy who is so infuriatingly inconsistent with their logic I'm okay with that.


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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:23 am 
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Animal wrote:
You guys are just acting idiotic. Who cares if Bedard strikes out more batters or gives up less HR. Those stats might actually MEAN SOMETHING, if he were not so bad with everything else. Yes, I know many of you consider wins and losses not a very good statistic. Geez, I wonder why the league even keeps them. Why even have standings? But anyway, in every way, shape, and form, Correia has been a better pitcher so far this year, and extremely better over past two months.

So, bury your heads in the sand if you wish. Cite all your new statistics. But the bottom line is plain and simple. Correia has done so much more to help the Pirates win games than Bedard. It IS still about winning games, right, or did I miss something new?

Translation: "I'm not smart enough or willing to understand all of these new-fangled statistics, so I'm going to act like they are meaningless and treat them as such." Talk about burying one's head in the sand....

Animal, you need to wrap your simple mind around the following concept: pitchers do not play the game of baseball alone. In order to win a game, a team must score more runs than it allows. I emphasize "team" because pitchers rarely contribute anything in the way of scoring runs, and aside from pitching (which, albeit, is a significant portion of run prevention), they do little else in the way of preventing runs from scoring. Without the other 8 players on the field, a pitcher would have an incredibly difficult time trying to win a baseball game.

This is why it makes absolutely no sense to credit individual pitchers with a team's wins and losses.

In the same vein, pitchers only contribute a portion of the team's effort to preventing runs. Pitchers can help their cause by striking other batters out and/or coaxing the batter to strike the ball in a general direction (e.g., on the ground or in the air). However, once the batter's bat makes contact with the ball, the pitcher loses all control over where the ball goes thereafter. And, unless the ball is struck in the pitcher's direction, the pitcher has absolutely no control over whether the batted ball is turned into an out; that responsibility lies with the fielding defense. If the defense is good, fewer runs will score as a result of batted balls in play. If the defense is bad, more such runs will score. Hence, the pitcher is very reliant on the defense in preventing runners from getting on base.

The most a pitcher can do on his own to prevent runs, independent of the fielding defense, is get batters out at the plate (strikeouts), limit the number of free passes issued (bases on balls), and keep the ball in the yard (homeruns allowed). This is why Bedard is better than Correia: he is less dependent upon the defense in preventing runs, and he is better at preventing runs independent of the defense.

I also echo everything that JollyRoger said.

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 7:53 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Animal wrote:
You guys are just acting idiotic. Who cares if Bedard strikes out more batters or gives up less HR. Those stats might actually MEAN SOMETHING, if he were not so bad with everything else. Yes, I know many of you consider wins and losses not a very good statistic. Geez, I wonder why the league even keeps them. Why even have standings? But anyway, in every way, shape, and form, Correia has been a better pitcher so far this year, and extremely better over past two months.

So, bury your heads in the sand if you wish. Cite all your new statistics. But the bottom line is plain and simple. Correia has done so much more to help the Pirates win games than Bedard. It IS still about winning games, right, or did I miss something new?

Translation: "I'm not smart enough or willing to understand all of these new-fangled statistics, so I'm going to act like they are meaningless and treat them as such." Talk about burying one's head in the sand....

Animal, you need to wrap your simple mind around the following concept: pitchers do not play the game of baseball alone. In order to win a game, a team must score more runs than it allows. I emphasize "team" because pitchers rarely contribute anything in the way of scoring runs, and aside from pitching (which, albeit, is a significant portion of run prevention), they do little else in the way of preventing runs from scoring. Without the other 8 players on the field, a pitcher would have an incredibly difficult time trying to win a baseball game.

This is why it makes absolutely no sense to credit individual pitchers with a team's wins and losses.

In the same vein, pitchers only contribute a portion of the team's effort to preventing runs. Pitchers can help their cause by striking other batters out and/or coaxing the batter to strike the ball in a general direction (e.g., on the ground or in the air). However, once the batter's bat makes contact with the ball, the pitcher loses all control over where the ball goes thereafter. And, unless the ball is struck in the pitcher's direction, the pitcher has absolutely no control over whether the batted ball is turned into an out; that responsibility lies with the fielding defense. If the defense is good, fewer runs will score as a result of batted balls in play. If the defense is bad, more such runs will score. Hence, the pitcher is very reliant on the defense in preventing runners from getting on base.

The most a pitcher can do on his own to prevent runs, independent of the fielding defense, is get batters out at the plate (strikeouts), limit the number of free passes issued (bases on balls), and keep the ball in the yard (homeruns allowed). This is why Bedard is better than Correia: he is less dependent upon the defense in preventing runs, and he is better at preventing runs independent of the defense.

I also echo everything that JollyRoger said.


WRONG YET AGAIN.

EXACTLY, PREVENTING RUNS. WHO HAS PREVENTED MORE RUNS THIS YEAR?? WHY, IT'S CORREIA, THAT'S WHO.

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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:46 pm 
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Animal wrote:
WRONG YET AGAIN.

EXACTLY, PREVENTING RUNS. WHO HAS PREVENTED MORE RUNS THIS YEAR?? WHY, IT'S CORREIA, THAT'S WHO.


Skip Bayless, is that you?

Willton wrote:
In the same vein, pitchers only contribute a portion of the team's effort to preventing runs. Pitchers can help their cause by striking other batters out and/or coaxing the batter to strike the ball in a general direction (e.g., on the ground or in the air). However, once the batter's bat makes contact with the ball, the pitcher loses all control over where the ball goes thereafter. And, unless the ball is struck in the pitcher's direction, the pitcher has absolutely no control over whether the batted ball is turned into an out; that responsibility lies with the fielding defense.


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 Post subject: Re: Animal's Goat and Stars for 07/01
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:18 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Animal wrote:
WRONG YET AGAIN.

EXACTLY, PREVENTING RUNS. WHO HAS PREVENTED MORE RUNS THIS YEAR?? WHY, IT'S CORREIA, THAT'S WHO.


Skip Bayless, is that you?


:lol:

Well played!

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