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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:20 pm 
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It's 4 games.


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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:41 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
TheShark wrote:
But I don't have major issues with the decision.

I did because of the chance that Presley steals the base.

If not in that situation, when, exactly?

Actually, since McCutchen was the following hitter, No. 9 would counsel you that having Presley steal in that situation would be a detriment to the team, as it would encourage the pitcher to walk McCutchen in order to pitch to the lesser hitters behind McCutchen. No. 9 would say that having Presley steal would effectively take the bat out of McCutchen's hands, so Presley should have stayed put to allow McCutchen an opportunity to hit.

Of course, in my mind, if the Pirates were truly worse off having Presley on 2nd, Cutch on 1st and McGehee batting, then why didn't the Dodgers recognize this and just walk McCutchen on four pitches? ;)

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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:44 pm 
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batterup wrote:
it is scary that tabata looks bad at the plate and walker looks really bad....GI Jones looks like GI Jane and barmes looks like a serious downgrade to cedeno...it is early but I am not too pleased with what I am seeing from this offense, we simply can't match anybody, but in their defense, hallady, lee, kershaw...

Worley is pretty good too, even though we beat him.

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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 4:23 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
I did because of the chance that Presley steals the base.

If not in that situation, when, exactly?

Actually, since McCutchen was the following hitter, No. 9 would counsel you that having Presley steal in that situation would be a detriment to the team, as it would encourage the pitcher to walk McCutchen in order to pitch to the lesser hitters behind McCutchen. No. 9 would say that having Presley steal would effectively take the bat out of McCutchen's hands, so Presley should have stayed put to allow McCutchen an opportunity to hit.

Of course, in my mind, if the Pirates were truly worse off having Presley on 2nd, Cutch on 1st and McGehee batting, then why didn't the Dodgers recognize this and just walk McCutchen on four pitches? ;)


Because you can take the approach where you don't give McCutchen anything good to hit and hope that he is overanxious and fishes after marginal pitches . . . which is what he did - twice.

The reality of the situation is that stealing Presley in that situation likely takes the bat out of McCutchen's hands and you've got McGehee and Hague (probably Alvarez) to follow. I can see the yin/yang to either strategy and I don't see any particular strategy as being the "no brainer" approach. Personally, I was pulling for the Bucs to try a hit and run in an effort to open up a larger hole somewhere in the infield and to minimize the risk of exactly what happened.

Let's not also lose sight of where the second pitch was located. Up and outside. That would have been a perfect pitch for the Dodgers' catcher to field and attempt to throw out Presely. It was not in a location where McCutchen could do anything with it so, in my mind, the Dodgers catcher did a great job of trying to set up a situation where they could defend against the steal or, alternatively, make McCutchen hit a pitch that he didn't want to hit.

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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:16 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Willton wrote:
Actually, since McCutchen was the following hitter, No. 9 would counsel you that having Presley steal in that situation would be a detriment to the team, as it would encourage the pitcher to walk McCutchen in order to pitch to the lesser hitters behind McCutchen. No. 9 would say that having Presley steal would effectively take the bat out of McCutchen's hands, so Presley should have stayed put to allow McCutchen an opportunity to hit.

Of course, in my mind, if the Pirates were truly worse off having Presley on 2nd, Cutch on 1st and McGehee batting, then why didn't the Dodgers recognize this and just walk McCutchen on four pitches? ;)


Because you can take the approach where you don't give McCutchen anything good to hit and hope that he is overanxious and fishes after marginal pitches . . . which is what he did - twice.

Ah, but then you run the risk of the pitcher throwing a mistake pitch to the Pirates best hitter. Why run that risk if having McCutchen on first and Presley on 2nd is a better situation for the Dodgers?

Unless, of course, having Cutch on 1st and Presley on 2nd is not a better situation for the Dodgers...

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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:35 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Worley is pretty good too, even though we beat him.

Worley pitched well against the Pirates: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K's, 1 run allowed.

I think that the failure to throw Pedro out at 1st on his K had more to do with the win than Worley's pitching.


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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 7:27 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Ah, but then you run the risk of the pitcher throwing a mistake pitch to the Pirates best hitter. Why run that risk if having McCutchen on first and Presley on 2nd is a better situation for the Dodgers?

Unless, of course, having Cutch on 1st and Presley on 2nd is not a better situation for the Dodgers...


With the way that McGehee is currently hitting, I would be less careful to McCutchen than I would be if Alvarez, Jones or Walker was behind McCutchen. In the latter scenarios, I wouldn't be giving McCutchen anything at all to hit and, if he didn't take the bait and walked, so be it.

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Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:01 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Willton wrote:
Ah, but then you run the risk of the pitcher throwing a mistake pitch to the Pirates best hitter. Why run that risk if having McCutchen on first and Presley on 2nd is a better situation for the Dodgers?

Unless, of course, having Cutch on 1st and Presley on 2nd is not a better situation for the Dodgers...


With the way that McGehee is currently hitting, I would be less careful to McCutchen than I would be if Alvarez, Jones or Walker was behind McCutchen. In the latter scenarios, I wouldn't be giving McCutchen anything at all to hit and, if he didn't take the bait and walked, so be it.

So whether Presley stole 2nd or not would be inconsequential to the Dodgers? After all, if Presley did steal, he would be doing the Dodgers a favor, right?

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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:09 pm 
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If Presley steals 2nd, the Dodgers are not likely to walk Cutch intentionally. If they do, then an extra base hit that stays in the yard puts them behind.

As a rule, it is a bad idea to put the potential go-ahead run on base with a walk.


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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:22 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
If Presley steals 2nd, the Dodgers are not likely to walk Cutch intentionally. If they do, then an extra base hit that stays in the yard puts them behind.

As a rule, it is a bad idea to put the potential go-ahead run on base with a walk.

Couldn't agree more. I don't see how a successful stolen base could have hurt the Bucs there. My only reservation in sending Presley would be the chance of him getting caught.

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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:27 pm 
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I don't like taking the bat out of the hands of my best hitter. It;s gotta be a hit and run in the right count. JM2$W


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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:34 pm 
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Willton wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
With the way that McGehee is currently hitting, I would be less careful to McCutchen than I would be if Alvarez, Jones or Walker was behind McCutchen. In the latter scenarios, I wouldn't be giving McCutchen anything at all to hit and, if he didn't take the bait and walked, so be it.

So whether Presley stole 2nd or not would be inconsequential to the Dodgers? After all, if Presley did steal, he would be doing the Dodgers a favor, right?


From where do you reach that conclusion?
With Presley on first and Cutch at bat, the Dodgers have no choice but to pitch to McCutchen. My point is simple. How you approach McCutchen is wholly dependent upon who is next in the lineup. McGehee is swinging a decent bat so you a prudent manager/pitcher/catcher would be less likely to want to walk McCutchen in that situation than if some stiff at the bat was up next (i.e. the way Walker, Jones and Alvarez have been hitting).
If Presley steals second, the Dodgers now have a choice. Pitch to McCutchen or walk him intentionally. There is no doubt in any rational person's head that McCutchen is the Pirates' best hitter. And, yes, conventional wisdom says to not put the go ahead run on base but conventional wisdom also says to not let the other team's best hitter beat you. If my goal is to win the game, I'd be awfully tempted to take my chances with McGehee at the plate and two runners on base to set up a DP (McGehee is slow) and a force at 1B, 2B and 3B than to go right at McCutchen.
As I pointed out in my first post, I was hoping for the hit and run. Thus, I was hoping to see Presley put in motion. Overall, I liked the Pirates chances in that situation and, with McGehee at the plate following McCutchen, I would have been OK with it even if they had intentionally walked Cutch. I would not have been far less thrilled with the situation if an intentional walk would have been followed by Jones, Alvarez, Hague or maybe even Walker.

So . . .short answer - Presley stealing second would not have been inconsequential to the Dodgers. It would have forced a strategic decision and, once again, I would look at the entirety of the game situation before pursuing any specific strategy.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:35 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
I don't like taking the bat out of the hands of my best hitter. It;s gotta be a hit and run in the right count. JM2$W


FWIW, had the hit and run been on for the second pitch (outside and elevated), it would have been a decent pitch for Cutch to hit to the right side.

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: April 10, 2012 Pirates (2-1) at Dodgers (3-1)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:26 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Couldn't agree more. I don't see how a successful stolen base could have hurt the Bucs there. My only reservation in sending Presley would be the chance of him getting caught.

No doubt, a caught stealing is a risk. However, Presley is an accomplished base stealer in his time in the majors (10-13 the past two seasons), the Dodgers' closer is a big guy who does not have a great move, and the Dodgers' catcher (A.J. Ellis) had thrown out just 27% of would-be base stealers in his career coming into this season.

That is why I see the question as, "If not now, when exactly?"


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