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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:12 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
But with Young, Jaramillo, Akimura and Church on the bench, I've got no problem with the move at all.

But, but, but ... Aki is due for a hit.

In fact, he is due for about 10 hits in a row.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:14 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
But with Young, Jaramillo, Akimura and Church on the bench, I've got no problem with the move at all.

But, but, but ... Aki is due for a hit.

In fact, he is due for about 10 hits in a row.


Make that about 25...

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:20 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
you are kidding, right?

you do understand that to get to a "statistically significant" evaluation, one actually has to get the AB's?

Using your logic, we should be running Clement out there every day because he hasn't had enough ABs at the MLB level yet to meaningfully figure him out.

It is perfectly acceptable to look down the bench and say "hey, until you show me you CAN'T hit this guy" ... I'm running you out there.

ZM


Dude...did you read what I said? Seriously, re-read the thread.

My logic says absolutely nothing about running Clement out there every day. That's a terrible leap in reasoning based on what I said. My logic says that counting on a sample size of four at-bats is stupid.

If JR was putting out Clement to face Wolf because he was 3-4 against him, that's a terrible decision given that Clement has a much, much larger sample size against lefties in general. Four at-bats tells you NOTHING. ZERO. I don't care if he is 4-4 with four home runs against him, those results are statistically indistinguishable from dumb luck at that sample size. If you think they are, you understand nothing about statistics.


Yes, I did. You are the one who needs the reread, I'm afraid.

I said nothing about running Clement out there every day. YOU did, sir, in your analogy to having "enough data" to use Clement in that situation. Your logic demands that we need to run Clement out there every day for at least a season-ful of AB's to see if his minor league -aggrated stats are matched in MLB.

You are quite comfortable looking at a small data set for his everyday play to "get him off the field", yet decry a small data set used for pinch hitting duty.

My comment was directed directly at Clement v. Wolf. I will run you out there against Wolf until you show me you can't hit him.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 4:33 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
How bad are Delwyn Young's splits this year? If they're bad, then Russell may not have had any better options on the bench than Clement. Which is pretty darn sad, really.


Clement and Church were probably the top choices there, even the radio guys thought Church was coming up for a moment there...

Clement was the top HR threat and at that point would have helped put the Brewers away. Its a risk to take, and with a soft tosser like Wolf, if Clement gets a hold of one it might have hit the river...

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 5:25 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:

Yes, I did. You are the one who needs the reread, I'm afraid. YOU did, sir, in your analogy to having "enough data" to use Clement in that situation.


I said nothing about running Clement out there every day. Find me the quote where I said that.

Also, I didn't use any analogy. I have no idea what you mean by that.

ZelieMike wrote:
Your logic demands that we need to run Clement out there every day for at least a season-ful of AB's to see if his minor league -aggrated stats are matched in MLB.


Now you're just being obtuse. The only thing my logic demands is NOT USING FOUR AT-BATS TO MAKE PINCH HITTING DECISIONS. Any other conclusion you're drawing from my logic is delusional. If anything, I'm suggesting NOT running Clement out there against lefties.


ZelieMike wrote:
You are quite comfortable looking at a small data set for his everyday play to "get him off the field", yet decry a small data set used for pinch hitting duty.


I'm quite comfortable looking at his minor and major league track record of failure against lefties and concluding from it that he has trouble with them. And yes, I decry a data set of four at-bats against a single pitcher. I don't think there's something magically different about Randy Wolf that makes Clement able to hit him.

ZelieMike wrote:
My comment was directed directly at Clement v. Wolf. I will run you out there against Wolf until you show me you can't hit him.

ZM


So since Clement struck out, did that one at-bat show that he can't hit Wolf now? You're advocating running the team from PA to PA.


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