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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:23 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
you are kidding, right?

you do understand that to get to a "statistically significant" evaluation, one actually has to get the AB's?

Using your logic, we should be running Clement out there every day because he hasn't had enough ABs at the MLB level yet to meaningfully figure him out.

It is perfectly acceptable to look down the bench and say "hey, until you show me you CAN'T hit this guy" ... I'm running you out there.

ZM


Dude...did you read what I said? Seriously, re-read the thread.

My logic says absolutely nothing about running Clement out there every day. That's a terrible leap in reasoning based on what I said. My logic says that counting on a sample size of four at-bats is stupid.

If JR was putting out Clement to face Wolf because he was 3-4 against him, that's a terrible decision given that Clement has a much, much larger sample size against lefties in general. Four at-bats tells you NOTHING. ZERO. I don't care if he is 4-4 with four home runs against him, those results are statistically indistinguishable from dumb luck at that sample size. If you think they are, you understand nothing about statistics.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:26 pm 
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burghermeister wrote:
I don't think you can draw many conclusions from an 0 for 4 but you can certainly draw some preliminary conclusions from 3 for 4 with a HR.


You can draw preliminary conclusions, but those conclusions will be incorrect. You can draw no meaningful conclusions from four at-bats. I can point to any number of players who in one game have gone 3-4 with a home run in a single game and whose careers have amounted to nothing. Four at-bats tells you zero.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:49 pm 
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And how one hitter does against a flame throwing Randy Johnson is meaningless when it comes to how that same hitter will do against a soft tosser.

Clement has demonstrated - at least in a small window - that he was comfortable against Wolf.

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:53 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
And how one hitter does against a flame throwing Randy Johnson is meaningless when it comes to how that same hitter will do against a soft tosser.

Clement has demonstrated - at least in a small window - that he was comfortable against Wolf.


The bold type above is not just some kind of minor caveat. It invalidates the entire statement. He had the equivalent of a great game against Wolf, it gives no information. Four at-bats is not a "small window," it's a pinhole aperture.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 1:48 pm 
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You called JR's decision "horrible."
You assume that it is based solely upon statistics.

What I'm saying is simply - like most things in this sport - there is more to the analysis than pure numbers. Hitting isn't easy when you are in the flow of the game. Pinch hitting - coming cold off the bench - is very difficult. There is a great deal of logic and reason behind sending up a hitter who has had very recent success against Wolf and who very well may feel confident in facing Wolf. Being confident and comfortable at the plate can be advantageous.

If Manny Ramirez is on the bench and available to pinch hit, I'd call the decision horrible. If Pearce was on the bench, I'd call it highly questionable. But with Young, Jaramillo, Akimura and Church on the bench, I've got no problem with the move at all.

But, I'm guessing that is driven by the fact that I'm not wed to what certain numbers may suggest.

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 2:26 pm 
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9, that's all well and good. If there was athought process behind it that included some modicum of reason, then I'm all for it. Maybe JR saw something in Clement's swing recently that indicated he'd hit Wolf based on how he was throwing. Maybe the rest of his bench was a consideration. Maybe he had some info to which I'm not privy.

But if JR ignored the larger sample size of Clement's performance against lefties in favor of his useless sample size against Wolf, and he based his decision to pinch hit Clement solely or largely based on that performance, then that is a terribly based decision regardless of outcome. Concluding that a hitter owns a certain pitcher based on four at-bats is not grounded in any kind of logic or reason. This is a mistake made by too many media talking heads and coaches, in my opinion.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 2:41 pm 
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Ummmmm lost in all this is the fact that Brian Burres is OPSing 1.000 against Wolf. Why even bother with PHing Clement or anyone else for that matter?


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 2:53 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
Ummmmm lost in all this is the fact that Brian Burres is OPSing 1.000 against Wolf. Why even bother with PHing Clement or anyone else for that matter?


Arg just made my day.

I apologize for the confrontational tone all, in this and other threads, but I'm having an extraordinarily bad day and have decided to passive-aggressively take it out on here instead of dealing with things like an adult. Thank you for your understanding.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:03 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
Argentum wrote:
Ummmmm lost in all this is the fact that Brian Burres is OPSing 1.000 against Wolf. Why even bother with PHing Clement or anyone else for that matter?


Arg just made my day.

I apologize for the confrontational tone all, in this and other threads, but I'm having an extraordinarily bad day and have decided to passive-aggressively take it out on here instead of dealing with things like an adult. Thank you for your understanding.


No problem, wasn't looking to take sides, just adding some levity.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:06 pm 
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How bad are Delwyn Young's splits this year? If they're bad, then Russell may not have had any better options on the bench than Clement. Which is pretty darn sad, really.

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:12 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
But with Young, Jaramillo, Akimura and Church on the bench, I've got no problem with the move at all.

But, but, but ... Aki is due for a hit.

In fact, he is due for about 10 hits in a row.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:14 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
But with Young, Jaramillo, Akimura and Church on the bench, I've got no problem with the move at all.

But, but, but ... Aki is due for a hit.

In fact, he is due for about 10 hits in a row.


Make that about 25...

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:20 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
you are kidding, right?

you do understand that to get to a "statistically significant" evaluation, one actually has to get the AB's?

Using your logic, we should be running Clement out there every day because he hasn't had enough ABs at the MLB level yet to meaningfully figure him out.

It is perfectly acceptable to look down the bench and say "hey, until you show me you CAN'T hit this guy" ... I'm running you out there.

ZM


Dude...did you read what I said? Seriously, re-read the thread.

My logic says absolutely nothing about running Clement out there every day. That's a terrible leap in reasoning based on what I said. My logic says that counting on a sample size of four at-bats is stupid.

If JR was putting out Clement to face Wolf because he was 3-4 against him, that's a terrible decision given that Clement has a much, much larger sample size against lefties in general. Four at-bats tells you NOTHING. ZERO. I don't care if he is 4-4 with four home runs against him, those results are statistically indistinguishable from dumb luck at that sample size. If you think they are, you understand nothing about statistics.


Yes, I did. You are the one who needs the reread, I'm afraid.

I said nothing about running Clement out there every day. YOU did, sir, in your analogy to having "enough data" to use Clement in that situation. Your logic demands that we need to run Clement out there every day for at least a season-ful of AB's to see if his minor league -aggrated stats are matched in MLB.

You are quite comfortable looking at a small data set for his everyday play to "get him off the field", yet decry a small data set used for pinch hitting duty.

My comment was directed directly at Clement v. Wolf. I will run you out there against Wolf until you show me you can't hit him.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 4:33 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
How bad are Delwyn Young's splits this year? If they're bad, then Russell may not have had any better options on the bench than Clement. Which is pretty darn sad, really.


Clement and Church were probably the top choices there, even the radio guys thought Church was coming up for a moment there...

Clement was the top HR threat and at that point would have helped put the Brewers away. Its a risk to take, and with a soft tosser like Wolf, if Clement gets a hold of one it might have hit the river...

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 5:25 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:

Yes, I did. You are the one who needs the reread, I'm afraid. YOU did, sir, in your analogy to having "enough data" to use Clement in that situation.


I said nothing about running Clement out there every day. Find me the quote where I said that.

Also, I didn't use any analogy. I have no idea what you mean by that.

ZelieMike wrote:
Your logic demands that we need to run Clement out there every day for at least a season-ful of AB's to see if his minor league -aggrated stats are matched in MLB.


Now you're just being obtuse. The only thing my logic demands is NOT USING FOUR AT-BATS TO MAKE PINCH HITTING DECISIONS. Any other conclusion you're drawing from my logic is delusional. If anything, I'm suggesting NOT running Clement out there against lefties.


ZelieMike wrote:
You are quite comfortable looking at a small data set for his everyday play to "get him off the field", yet decry a small data set used for pinch hitting duty.


I'm quite comfortable looking at his minor and major league track record of failure against lefties and concluding from it that he has trouble with them. And yes, I decry a data set of four at-bats against a single pitcher. I don't think there's something magically different about Randy Wolf that makes Clement able to hit him.

ZelieMike wrote:
My comment was directed directly at Clement v. Wolf. I will run you out there against Wolf until you show me you can't hit him.

ZM


So since Clement struck out, did that one at-bat show that he can't hit Wolf now? You're advocating running the team from PA to PA.


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