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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 4:41 am 
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jaybee24 wrote:
TheShark wrote:
I know they're banking on the "power" to come through, but I really didn't like the decision to let Clement pinch-hit (against a lefty no less) with the based loaded in the 6th. I would have much rather took my chances on a Young single in that situation.


I didn't like that decision either, didn't make any sense to me to bring him in against Wolf.


I didn't like it, either. Then they showed that Clement was 3 for 4 with a HR vs. Wolf so it did make a little sense.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 9:23 am 
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jaybee24 wrote:
TheShark wrote:
I know they're banking on the "power" to come through, but I really didn't like the decision to let Clement pinch-hit (against a lefty no less) with the based loaded in the 6th. I would have much rather took my chances on a Young single in that situation.


I didn't like that decision either, didn't make any sense to me to bring him in against Wolf.


Clement was 3 for 4 with a single, double, and HR against Wolf...That was why he was brought in...

(oops...I didnt read all the posts before I posted...Sorry)

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 9:44 am 
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Good ol' JR...it's great that our manager is using a whopping sample size of 4 ABs on which to base potentially game turning decisions....


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 10:32 am 
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Think Andy redeemed himself when he caught Braun off second base? Andy knows how to be embarrassed by smart baseball so he did it to Braun.

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 11:08 am 
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jaybee24 wrote:
Good ol' JR...it's great that our manager is using a whopping sample size of 4 ABs on which to base potentially game turning decisions....

So are you suggesting that he shouldn't have used that fact in his evaluation? If so, I respectfully disagree.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 11:11 am 
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burghermeister wrote:
jaybee24 wrote:
Good ol' JR...it's great that our manager is using a whopping sample size of 4 ABs on which to base potentially game turning decisions....

So are you suggesting that he shouldn't have used that fact in his evaluation? If so, I respectfully disagree.


I'm suggesting exactly that. No conclusions can be drawn from four at-bats.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 11:15 am 
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you are kidding, right?

you do understand that to get to a "statistically significant" evaluation, one actually has to get the AB's?

Using your logic, we should be running Clement out there every day because he hasn't had enough ABs at the MLB level yet to meaningfully figure him out.

It is perfectly acceptable to look down the bench and say "hey, until you show me you CAN'T hit this guy" ... I'm running you out there.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 11:16 am 
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jaybee24 wrote:
burghermeister wrote:
jaybee24 wrote:
Good ol' JR...it's great that our manager is using a whopping sample size of 4 ABs on which to base potentially game turning decisions....

So are you suggesting that he shouldn't have used that fact in his evaluation? If so, I respectfully disagree.


I'm suggesting exactly that. No conclusions can be drawn from four at-bats.

I don't think you can draw many conclusions from an 0 for 4 but you can certainly draw some preliminary conclusions from 3 for 4 with a HR.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 11:22 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
It is perfectly acceptable to look down the bench and say "hey, until you show me you CAN'T hit this guy" ... I'm running you out there.


To play Devil's Advocate ZM, what would you do if the same situation arose again taking into consideration what Clement did last night against Wolf?

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 11:25 am 
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Look down the bench and see who is hot against him, or at least the least cold...

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:23 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
you are kidding, right?

you do understand that to get to a "statistically significant" evaluation, one actually has to get the AB's?

Using your logic, we should be running Clement out there every day because he hasn't had enough ABs at the MLB level yet to meaningfully figure him out.

It is perfectly acceptable to look down the bench and say "hey, until you show me you CAN'T hit this guy" ... I'm running you out there.

ZM


Dude...did you read what I said? Seriously, re-read the thread.

My logic says absolutely nothing about running Clement out there every day. That's a terrible leap in reasoning based on what I said. My logic says that counting on a sample size of four at-bats is stupid.

If JR was putting out Clement to face Wolf because he was 3-4 against him, that's a terrible decision given that Clement has a much, much larger sample size against lefties in general. Four at-bats tells you NOTHING. ZERO. I don't care if he is 4-4 with four home runs against him, those results are statistically indistinguishable from dumb luck at that sample size. If you think they are, you understand nothing about statistics.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:26 pm 
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burghermeister wrote:
I don't think you can draw many conclusions from an 0 for 4 but you can certainly draw some preliminary conclusions from 3 for 4 with a HR.


You can draw preliminary conclusions, but those conclusions will be incorrect. You can draw no meaningful conclusions from four at-bats. I can point to any number of players who in one game have gone 3-4 with a home run in a single game and whose careers have amounted to nothing. Four at-bats tells you zero.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:49 pm 
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And how one hitter does against a flame throwing Randy Johnson is meaningless when it comes to how that same hitter will do against a soft tosser.

Clement has demonstrated - at least in a small window - that he was comfortable against Wolf.

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:53 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
And how one hitter does against a flame throwing Randy Johnson is meaningless when it comes to how that same hitter will do against a soft tosser.

Clement has demonstrated - at least in a small window - that he was comfortable against Wolf.


The bold type above is not just some kind of minor caveat. It invalidates the entire statement. He had the equivalent of a great game against Wolf, it gives no information. Four at-bats is not a "small window," it's a pinhole aperture.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 1:48 pm 
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You called JR's decision "horrible."
You assume that it is based solely upon statistics.

What I'm saying is simply - like most things in this sport - there is more to the analysis than pure numbers. Hitting isn't easy when you are in the flow of the game. Pinch hitting - coming cold off the bench - is very difficult. There is a great deal of logic and reason behind sending up a hitter who has had very recent success against Wolf and who very well may feel confident in facing Wolf. Being confident and comfortable at the plate can be advantageous.

If Manny Ramirez is on the bench and available to pinch hit, I'd call the decision horrible. If Pearce was on the bench, I'd call it highly questionable. But with Young, Jaramillo, Akimura and Church on the bench, I've got no problem with the move at all.

But, I'm guessing that is driven by the fact that I'm not wed to what certain numbers may suggest.

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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 2:26 pm 
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9, that's all well and good. If there was athought process behind it that included some modicum of reason, then I'm all for it. Maybe JR saw something in Clement's swing recently that indicated he'd hit Wolf based on how he was throwing. Maybe the rest of his bench was a consideration. Maybe he had some info to which I'm not privy.

But if JR ignored the larger sample size of Clement's performance against lefties in favor of his useless sample size against Wolf, and he based his decision to pinch hit Clement solely or largely based on that performance, then that is a terribly based decision regardless of outcome. Concluding that a hitter owns a certain pitcher based on four at-bats is not grounded in any kind of logic or reason. This is a mistake made by too many media talking heads and coaches, in my opinion.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 2:41 pm 
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Ummmmm lost in all this is the fact that Brian Burres is OPSing 1.000 against Wolf. Why even bother with PHing Clement or anyone else for that matter?


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 2:53 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
Ummmmm lost in all this is the fact that Brian Burres is OPSing 1.000 against Wolf. Why even bother with PHing Clement or anyone else for that matter?


Arg just made my day.

I apologize for the confrontational tone all, in this and other threads, but I'm having an extraordinarily bad day and have decided to passive-aggressively take it out on here instead of dealing with things like an adult. Thank you for your understanding.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:03 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
Argentum wrote:
Ummmmm lost in all this is the fact that Brian Burres is OPSing 1.000 against Wolf. Why even bother with PHing Clement or anyone else for that matter?


Arg just made my day.

I apologize for the confrontational tone all, in this and other threads, but I'm having an extraordinarily bad day and have decided to passive-aggressively take it out on here instead of dealing with things like an adult. Thank you for your understanding.


No problem, wasn't looking to take sides, just adding some levity.


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 Post subject: Re: May 19, 2010 Brewers (15-24) vs Pirates (17-22)
PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 3:06 pm 
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How bad are Delwyn Young's splits this year? If they're bad, then Russell may not have had any better options on the bench than Clement. Which is pretty darn sad, really.

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