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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 5:43 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
burghermeister wrote:
This even though they have a -77 run differential through 21 games.

Of course, -34 of that came in two games vs. the Brewers.


That is called skewing the data, and renders a lot of the conclusions suspect to meaningless. Heck, I'd even consider calling any game against the Brewers an outlier and reject the data set. I bet a look at the remaining differential will more closely resemble the record.

ZM


Even taking out those two games, their expected record in the other 19 games is 6-13. A minus-43 differential in 19 games is horrid.

I'm not complaining about their record, but the differential needs to change or else things are going to get much uglier. They can't expect to keep winning one run games.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 5:50 pm 
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lets not forget the Arizona losses too..that 14 run inning...

The run differential is tough, it just seems like they have been blown out in every loss, thats the scary part...

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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:12 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
burghermeister wrote:
This even though they have a -77 run differential through 21 games.

Of course, -34 of that came in two games vs. the Brewers.


That is called skewing the data, and renders a lot of the conclusions suspect to meaningless. Heck, I'd even consider calling any game against the Brewers an outlier and reject the data set. I bet a look at the remaining differential will more closely resemble the record.

ZM

The entire data set is next to worthless due to sample size. Run differential tends to correlate with won/loss records over the course of an entire season. It's very close to useless for anything over the course of a month. By the end of the year the actual winning percentage and the Pythagorean winning percentage will be a lot closer to one another. That will happen in one of two ways: either the win percentage will drop or the run differential will improve. I'm betting on the latter.

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