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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 7:18 pm 
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Just as a general response about this game:

I don't think Maholm was that bad. He gave the team a chance to win the game. That's the type of pitcher he is. He walked more batters today than we are used to seeing from him but he isn't going to typically struggle with control. This game will be the exception and not the rule for Paul so I wouldn't put too much stock into it.

Dotel is the closer. I don't want Hanrahan getting a chance at the job at this point in time, and probably not even this year. With the way Meek has pitched so far he may be in line for the job before Hanrahan. Don't get me wrong: I like Hanrahan but I think he needs to continue to pitch in a middle relief or setup role for a while before he's ready to close again.

I'm a little worried about Jones. He's been clutch but he's been otherwise pretty bad. He seems like he's striking out quite a bit to start the year off.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 8:42 pm 
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I have come to the belief that Maholm and Duke will rarely keep the Bucs in a low scoring game. The Pirates will need to score at least 4 and more than likely 5 or 6 runs the majority of games those two are involved with in order for them to have an above .500 or .500 record.

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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 9:48 pm 
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As I type this, the Pirates are a half game out of second place in the NL Central. This even though they have a -77 run differential through 21 games. That comes out to -3.6 runs per game. Bizarre.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 9:58 pm 
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burghermeister wrote:
This even though they have a -77 run differential through 21 games.

Of course, -34 of that came in two games vs. the Brewers.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 10:04 pm 
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I think the last 2 games definitely showed great character (especially not caving today after the blown save) and breaking the curse of Milwaukee is a great way to turn morale right around after the last run of horrible results. And in spite of the fun the Brewers may have had running up the score in previous games we're still 2-4 with a series a piece against them for the year (and ties in the standings)

It's great to see some signs of life in the offense (I think that continued improvement from LaRoche and Clement showing an ability to hit some major league pitching are key factors in this team hopefully beoming a contender in the next year or two. Doumit getting hot and A.McCutchen's batting are certainly great, but there wasn't as much doubt there.) I'm not too worried yet about Jones - I'm still reserving judgement on last year being anything to go by, but the fact that he's 4th in the league in walks, still sporting a decent OBP and has managed a couple of game winning clutch hits seem to indicate that the main issue has just been pitchers being cautious when there's poor / non-existent hitting following.

I'd missed that Doumit's grand slam last night was the first that Hoffman had conceded in his career - nice footnote, even if he's looking like he's past it this year.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 10:22 pm 
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So glad that the Bucs could TAKE two of three from the Brew Crew.

However, it couldn't have come at a worse time for me: the team I am playing in my 30-team fantasy league plays all Pirates... I hate even thinking of rooting against Pittsburgh---this is why I stopped playing fantasy!

Still, great bounce back wins and look forward to the next series.

Bats are coming back alive, hopefully the pitching will, too.

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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 10:37 pm 
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NDL wrote:

I don't think Maholm was that bad. He gave the team a chance to win the game. That's the type of pitcher he is. He walked more batters today than we are used to seeing from him but he isn't going to typically struggle with control. This game will be the exception and not the rule for Paul so I wouldn't put too much stock into it.



My problem with Maholm is how he struggled. After we jumped out to a 3-0 lead, he gave the 3 runs back in the bottom of the first by walking the lead-off batter after getting ahead 0-2. The next batter inevitably homered, and the tying run would score after a wild pitch. And really, his control was shaky the whole game, he danced around a couple of potentially dangerous innings. I agree that his control was exceptionally wild tonight, and that probably won't continue, but this game could have gotten a lot worse than his effort showed. You can't walk that many batters against a talented line-up.

The bullpen, I would say, was the hero of this game. Meek, Hanrahan, and especially Carassco, all great efforts. Dotel's patented "give up just one run" is getting a little scary, because in games like this we were only up one. But it looked like he almost had the hit up the middle and then the infield almost got to it from the brief highlights I saw, so I'll let it slide. At least we'll have some fresh bullpen arms against LAD, which will be needed with Burres.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2010 10:54 pm 
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solid game. Cutch is over .300. Laroche still hitting. Jones got a couple of hits including clutch game winning hit. I know it was sound baseball strategy to have Milledge bunting. But the coaches have to know that with a technique as awful as he showed...he'd likely not get it done. I'm usually all for the sound strategic decisions....But if he can't bunt..have him swing. What's the worst that could happen ? A double play? Great to see Braun make the final out two games in a row. Plate ump didn't even kiss Andy. That pitch was 4 inches outside. Guess he wanted the Leslie Nielsen "Naked Gun" love.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 9:48 am 
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I'm not sure what the definition of a "good" 2010 season would be for this team, maybe "passable" is a better word, but if we do indeed manage to achieve either one, perhaps this past week's gut check will be remembered as the catalyst? Starting pitching HAS to get better.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:09 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
burghermeister wrote:
This even though they have a -77 run differential through 21 games.

Of course, -34 of that came in two games vs. the Brewers.


That is called skewing the data, and renders a lot of the conclusions suspect to meaningless. Heck, I'd even consider calling any game against the Brewers an outlier and reject the data set. I bet a look at the remaining differential will more closely resemble the record.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 5:43 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
burghermeister wrote:
This even though they have a -77 run differential through 21 games.

Of course, -34 of that came in two games vs. the Brewers.


That is called skewing the data, and renders a lot of the conclusions suspect to meaningless. Heck, I'd even consider calling any game against the Brewers an outlier and reject the data set. I bet a look at the remaining differential will more closely resemble the record.

ZM


Even taking out those two games, their expected record in the other 19 games is 6-13. A minus-43 differential in 19 games is horrid.

I'm not complaining about their record, but the differential needs to change or else things are going to get much uglier. They can't expect to keep winning one run games.


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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 5:50 pm 
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lets not forget the Arizona losses too..that 14 run inning...

The run differential is tough, it just seems like they have been blown out in every loss, thats the scary part...

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 Post subject: Re: April 28, 2010 Pirates (8-12) at Brewers (9-11)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:12 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
burghermeister wrote:
This even though they have a -77 run differential through 21 games.

Of course, -34 of that came in two games vs. the Brewers.


That is called skewing the data, and renders a lot of the conclusions suspect to meaningless. Heck, I'd even consider calling any game against the Brewers an outlier and reject the data set. I bet a look at the remaining differential will more closely resemble the record.

ZM

The entire data set is next to worthless due to sample size. Run differential tends to correlate with won/loss records over the course of an entire season. It's very close to useless for anything over the course of a month. By the end of the year the actual winning percentage and the Pythagorean winning percentage will be a lot closer to one another. That will happen in one of two ways: either the win percentage will drop or the run differential will improve. I'm betting on the latter.

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