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 Post subject: USA
PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 8:27 pm 
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http://www.heraldstandard.com/news_deta ... -gold.html
USA Men's Hockey to win Gold
February 16, 2010 08:36 PM TEXT SIZE Herald Standard
By Dutch Wydo

With the 2010 Men's Olympic hockey tournament about to start, let’s review what took place in 2006 and see if we can find some clues that might help pick a winner for 2010.
Here are the shots on goal differential stats (per game average) from the 2006 Olympics.

Total Shots on goal differential (shots for/shots against/ shot differential

Canada 34-24 = +10
Finland 32-24 = +8
CRepublic 31-26 = +5
Switz 28-31 = -3
Germany 23-29 = -6
Italy 21-40 = -19
————————————

Russia 34-28 = +6
Sweden 28-23 = +5
USA 29-24 = +5
Slovakia 27-24 = +3
Latvia 23-32 = -9
Kazakhstan 21-35 = -14
————————————————————
Canada finished with the Top differential despite finishing seventh. Canada began the 2006 tourney with a bang, by blowing out Italy and Germany. They outshot Italy 50-20 in a 7-2 win. They outshot Germany 40-12 in a 5-1 win. But they lost to Switzerland 2-0 despite outshooting them 49-18. This included a 24-1 in shots for the third period of that game. Martin Gerber stole the win and Canada was never the same after that. They only got 24 shots in the following game against Finland and only could muster 16 shots against Czech Republic. I'm not sure if Gretsky panicked after their first loss and changed their game plan or something else happened. But I do know that Canada was not the same after Gerber saved all 49 against them.

Sweden won the Gold in 06, but I believe this was due to having a good draw in the medal round. They had already lost 5-0 to Russia and 3-0 to Slovakia in the prelims and narrowly escaped the USA 2-1 as well. Yet, in the medal round they were able to avoid playing any of these teams a second time and also avoided Canada. They won't be so fortunate this year in my opinion.

That brings us to this year.
Top 5 teams /Odds to win

Canada -170

Russia +170

Sweden +550

USA +550

Crepublic +1300

My Prediction

I'm taking the USA to win gold. I do believe that there is value with them at nearly 6 to 1. As you can see above, they finished with a solid +5 shots on goal differential in 06 that number should be even better this year with Ron Wilson's attacking, aggressive system. Look for his defensive players to take away plenty of time and space from some of the great offensive players they will face in this event.

The USA should be able to get away with this risky style because they should have Ryan Miller in net backing them up if the defensemen make any mistakes. Miller has saved approximately 93 percent of the his shots he has faced this season in the NHL. The United States is completely undervalued here as they never lost a game by more than 1 point in 06.

06 Results scores (shots on goal)

Slovakia 2 USA 1 (20-31)

Sweden 2 USA 1 (26-25)

Russia 5 USA 4 (20-34)

Finland 4 USA 3 (28-25)

Sure, they lost 4 games. But look at the scores and more importantly the shots on goal. they were only outshot in 1 game (Sweden) and that was only by 1 single shot. This tells us that they could play toe to toe with the Big Boys. Their close scores further enhance that belief. Look for the USA to finish with a +8 SOG differential this year and find themselves in the Gold Medal game.

USA to win Gold in Hockey.

Dutch Wydo is a sports talk shost on WMBS 590 Uniontown Saturday morning 9-10 a.m.. You can e-mail Dutch at smartmonies@gmail.com.

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 Post subject: Re: USA
PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 10:43 pm 
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Team USA really looked good out there today against Finland. If Canada makes it (and NBC hopes so), It will be a great game. Our team got lucky early against Canada last time and the matchup is very even. The Malone-Pavelski-Kessel line has been the best line of the tournament bar none since the first game.


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