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 Post subject: Maybe they Know They're Frauds -- Underclassmen Declaring
PostPosted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:06 pm 
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Just read that a pair of UCLA underclassmen, Kyle Anderson and Zach LaVine, are both declaring early for the NBA.

And that got me thinking, maybe they know they won't accomplish anything and by grabbing the money now, before they are found out, is the only way they'll get a payday. I only saw UCLA play three games this year, their three games in the NCAAs and there is some serious delusion about whether they'll be any good.

Yeah, Anderson is a 6-9 point guard, but let me tell you, he is no Magic Johnson, or even a Penny Hardaway. Yeah, he can post some guard up at the top of the key and roll around him, taking three steps to get to the bucket, but he is gangly slow and he throws up shit that looks like it was me. Very heavy shots, no roll on the ball. Like I said, like it was JV stud me throwing it up there. He's gonna be destroyed in the pros. Unless he wants to go to Serbia or Turkey. And LaVine was even worse. He did look confident on the ball and he showed a quickness penetrating the lane. But in the three games I saw he shot a combined 3 for 15 from the floor was 0-8 from beyond the arc. On the biggest stage of his life he averaged less than 3 points a game?

Now, Tyler Ennis of Syracuse has declared as well. And I saw more of him this season, and he came back after a minor injury, but he never really learned how to control a game and he's a horrible defender. A Syracuse zone was maybe the worst thing that could have happened to him, but he's also going to get exposed in the NBA. He's got happy hands -- the basketball equivalent of a gun-shy QB with happy feet -- and he's going to take himself out of games at the next level.


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 Post subject: Re: Maybe they Know They're Frauds -- Underclassmen Declarin
PostPosted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:54 pm 
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The UCLA thing might simply be Howland guys getting out of a system they are not suited for. Can't see how those guys fit in the Gulf Coast College offense! ;)

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Maybe they Know They're Frauds -- Underclassmen Declarin
PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:45 pm 
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The big issue with the NBA is that it's a potential league. NBA GMs will draft on potential over production the vast majority of the time, and it incentivizes kids leaving before they're ready because a big-time freshman that comes back for his sophomore year will see his game picked apart and a focus on what he DIDN'T improve....especially since the Shiny New Toy Syndrome will be in full effect with the next year's crop of freshmen.

Overall, I thought Anderson left at a good time. He pretty much is what he is, largely because he's been "Slo-Mo" ever since his HS days. He's not athletic, he plays at his own pace, he doesn't really have a position, but for whatever reason he's pretty damn good. He shot well this year, he rebounded like crazy, and played an exceptional point forward. I can't see him improving his draft stock, he's probably a late first-round type this year so might as well take the money now. Plus, fair or not, once most guys hit their junior year they get dinged in the upside department right away.

LaVine is tough. I think it's difficult to say he should pass up the money because it's guaranteed, but he strikes me as a guy who probably could have added at least one extra contract on to his career with an additional season. Teams that draft him are going to do it with the idea that he can transition to the point and I can't see him doing that in limited NBA minutes or a crappy D-League team.

He was one of those rare cases where he kind of fell through the cracks coming in (compared to a Wiggins, Randle, Parker, etc.) so probably could have stayed another year and not been picked apart too badly. I think he's probably a late first-rounder now, probably could've been a lottery pick next year. Teams love long, 6'5" athletes who can shoot and pass and LaVine showed some REALLY impressive flashes this year....and flashes are all NBA teams need to see with his measurables.

But, the word on him was that he didn't think he'd get to play PG over the coach's son (Bryce Alford, who is pretty decent). Have no idea if it'll be the right or wrong call, but that's part of what played into it apparently.

Ennis wasn't ready. But it's a weak PG class and if a team is gonna get sucked into the whole intangible-y leader type and doesn't want Marcus Smart's issues he's a decent consolation. His defense isn't much worse than Smart's offense.

I don't think it's right, but the NBA definitely incentivizes guys capitalizing on their perceived potential rather than staying and working on their games.

As an aside, this went from a class everybody thought was loaded to a pretty mediocre one. Wiggins is passive, Embiid having back issues already is bad, Parker can't/won't defend, Randle is short, Smart still can't shoot, Gordon can't do anything well on offense (besides dunk). Wouldn't surprise me to see Dante Exum go 1st overall, although I think there's a good chance of Wiggins and/or Embiid testing off the charts and solidifying the #1 (and maybe #2) spot.

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