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 Post subject: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:50 pm 
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Location: Ede, The Netherlands
So, The draft is done, teams are set, and because i have no clue who now on paper has the best team..

What are your guys early thoughts how it will end?

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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:53 pm 
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I think my team will produce R's, HR's, RBI's and decent OBP on offense. Pitching will be solid, and give decent points in W's, K's, ERA and WHIP. If Darvish is what I hope for, then the WHIP and K's will be quite good.

SB's actually look good for once. Drafted Werth and Young specifically because the give 25 HR, 20 SB potential.

I think that Kipnis, Lawrie, Werth, Young and de Aza will give me enough SB's that I avoid getting buried in that category.

Finally, I think Goldschmidt and Boesch will tell where I finish. If they hit like I expect, then I like team.


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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:56 pm 
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P.S. Your top 4 SP'ers are rock solid. The only issue you may have is the IP limit on Strasburg and the last few weeks for Wainwright, and whether he is still starting games at that point or if the Cards take a more cautious approach.


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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:59 pm 
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Bucfan will win by 20 points

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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:35 pm 
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Well last year my core offense produced to get many points, this is what i hope for again. Offensively i took the shot with Mauer and got Walker back at second. I expect myself a lot from Jennings and Stanton and hope Nelly Cruz will have a complete healthy year. My only real big issue is 3rd base where in the draft options where fast gone because i choose to establish a good pitching staff and that i will pick up somerwhere through the season a decent 3B.
closers with good WHIP. I agree that the 160 innings strassburg-case and the wainwright-case are some gambles i took, but did it already at the keepers-moment.

My pitching looks 300% better now then it did last year, so my personal expectations are at least play for a top spot and see where it will end.
I give myself for now a 4th position what must be reasonable..

Well for now Bucfan indeed seems to have the most solid team, but there are also some what-if's in your team that can create positive surprises but also as easy some huge headaches..

BUT the Dutch are ready

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New Amsterdam was a Dutch settlement est. at the southern tip of Manhattan Island which served as seat of the colonial government in the New Dutch territory. It was renamed New York in honor of the then Duke of York.


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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:53 pm 
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Bucfan's only potential downfall will be injuries (his SP is thin beyond his top 4, losing top bats woudl kill anyone) and/or alot riding on young players (Kipnis, Lowrie, Santana, Boesch, Goldy, Darvish).

I like my team a lot, but I'm afraid that I don't have enough power. If I can get Utley and Crawford back sooner rather than later and Heyward rebounds I should be solid.

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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:10 pm 
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I followed the adage that it is easier to add SP'ing in Roto than it is to add hitting. My strategy was to grab a No. 4 SP'er early - with first pick if Shields or Darvish was available, and if not, then Beachy at 1st pick in 2nd round. (Don't know that would have worked if Shields and Darvish both gone, since BBF snagged Beachy at end of 1st round.)

Once I got the top 4 SP'ers, plan was to ignore SP'ing and load up hitters, particularly power hitters, and particularly guys who could give me 25 HR's and 20 SB's.

If Shields and Darvish both gone, would have selected Goldschmidt with 1st pick. He was the 2nd or 3rd best power prospect in the open draft (behind Uggla and Berkman).

Wound up with Darvish, then had Goldschmidt and Werth available. Like that power-SB combo from both (the G-man can swipe 12-14 bags for team).

Passed on Kipnis at first picks as I did not think other teams needed 2nd base or MI as much as they needed OF, SP'ing, or corner infield. Banked on him falling to my 10th pick of second round.

Since BBF has Kinsler, Hanley, Reyes, knew Kipnis not of much interest to him but knew he would not get by Barrys a second time (and really crossed fingers relative to Barrys' first round pick). Debated taking him with first pick in first round, but decided that Darvish, Shields or Goldschmidt offered too much to pass by.

Like Kipnis a lot. He is sort of a poor man's Ackley. Feel a bit lucky that Chris Young wound up falling to me in 13th round. His ONLY issue has been mediocre OBP, but even then, he is at .335-.340. He has also revised his swing a bit and is crushing this spring.

If he can post an OBP of .350, he will be perhaps the quietest 5-category player around.


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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 6:23 pm 
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I wanted Werth that round. Considered him with my first pick but I had Berkman rated a tiny bit higher.

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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:07 pm 
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The computer did a decent job drafting for me. I was hosting an Open Mic Night at one of the local colleges and couldn't make it. It wont matter anyway, two of my guys will end up going on the DL within the 1st month and screw me over for the year.

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 Post subject: Re: Fantasy Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:54 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:
I wanted Werth that round. Considered him with my first pick but I had Berkman rated a tiny bit higher.

Berkman is so solid in OBP that he has a lot of value, even if he regresses a bit in HR's and RBI's. Plus his OF eligibility is an added bonus.

I like Werth for the reasons you do - five category contributor. Further, the whining about his BA in the fantasy community is just dumb. OBP is the real measure of a player's contribution, not BA.

Real teams value OBP well above batting average. Real teams evaluate offensive performance based upon OBP, slugging and OPS vs. batting average. Yet the vast majority of fantasy leagues use the discredited BA stat and undervalue Werth, Swisher, etc.


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