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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 4:12 pm 
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So by that logic a career half season at age 31 is enough to project Willingham as a keeper player, one of the top 100 players in MLB. Not buying it. By that logic Garrett Jones was a lock to repeat his .900+ ops season this year.

No one is arguing that Willingham hasn't been better than Ichiro, that's a push, but Ichiro certainly will be better for the next 6 weeks. If not for our generous 3 DL spots you would have cut Willingham this week.

The trade doesn't even fit Minsk's plan of keeping all propsects that he has built this year. If this one goes through Willingham damn well better be on a keeper list next year.

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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:15 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
If this one goes through Willingham damn well better be on a keeper list next year.

By the same token, anybody bitching about the deal should be barred from selecting Willingham next year.

If he is such dogshit, then nobody would want him anyway, right???


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:40 pm 
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Wow, there's an overreaction, no one is saying Willingham isn't a useful fantasy player, he just not a top 100 player.

Look, I have him on my 12 team MLB Dynasty team, we have 40 man rosters (30 MLB, 10 prospects). Frankly, he's on the bubble as a keeper in that format where I can keep my best 25 MLB players or so.

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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 8:35 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
If this one goes through Willingham damn well better be on a keeper list next year.

By the same token, anybody bitching about the deal should be barred from selecting Willingham next year.

If he is such dogshit, then nobody would want him anyway, right???



Look...you are getting all pissy because you know this was a "strange" deal...using strange to be nice. You are winning the league. You are going to win the league. You didn't need to make this deal regardless of who offered the deal. You stated Willingham is a keeper so why not put him on your DL and then keep him. Either way it isn't going to cost you first place. I personally stated that Willingham was having a "good year, a very good year". However for his career and in the future I think most would take Ichiro. That's all anybody I saw said about Willingham.

But hey...I'm just an idiot in the middle of the pack.....


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 10:42 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Look...you are getting all pissy because you know this was a "strange" deal.

Why is it "strange"? Because you guys undervalue Willingham? Or overvalue Ichiro? And I am not the one getting pissy - you guys are.

PirateParrot wrote:
You are winning the league.

Completely accidental. I have no ability to judge production. I actually thought that Willingham is a good producing player.

PirateParrot wrote:
You are going to win the league.

There is no guarantee of this. Just a few days ago, team was reeling. I really appreciate how the effort I have put into putting the team together, tweaking it, adding players, filling weak spots, moving players, making deals, etc. is given zero consideration whenever somebody beefs about my deals.

PirateParrot wrote:
You didn't need to make this deal regardless of who offered the deal.

So I can continue to suck in stolen bases. Okay. So, do I get some bonus in this category? Since I "don't need to make a deal" to improve this obvious weakness, what benefit do I get from "not making the deal"?

And is everybody under this restriction? Or just me?

PirateParrot wrote:
You stated Willingham is a keeper so why not put him on your DL and then keep him.

Re-read what I said.

I said that MINSK is going to keep him, and that I was looking for a way in mid-July to figure out a way to keep him. I may not be able to keep him because I have a lot of very productive players.

One of the reasons I asked, a few days ago, about the keeper limit of 10 players was because I was trying to figure out how to keep guys.

I have tougher choices to make because my team is deep and productive. To be blunt, most of the rosters I see in our league, there is no way Willingham should be released.

PirateParrot wrote:
Either way it isn't going to cost you first place.

Once again, these claims are astounding.

Go to the standings, at look at how close I am to gaining 4 points or losing 12. Seriously - GO LOOK AT THE POINT TOTALS.

I have fought off point losses in wins, RBI's, saves, K's, OBP and HR's by making move after move. If I did not watch a zillion games, and know which players might help, I would be in a dogfight. I am still not much ahead in a ton of categories. I am a few wins, RBI's, saves, and OBP-negative days from losing 6 points - like I did in a span of 2 days last week.

Funny, I don't remember a single comment about my struggles when I was losing points.

PirateParrot wrote:
I personally stated that Willingham was having a "good year, a very good year". However for his career and in the future I think most would take Ichiro.

Because of course he is just 103 years old.

I believe that Ichiro is overrated. You are free to disagree. But I fail to see why your player rankings should be made mine.

PirateParrot wrote:
That's all anybody I saw said about Willingham.


So let me see if I have this straight:

(1) Willingham is having a very good year, and is a solid producer.
(2) Ichiro is 37 years old at the beginning of next season.
(3) Ichiro offers NOTHING in terms of HR's, RBI's and walks (OBP), yet is supposedly such a good player.
(4) This is a keeper league, where a season-ending injury matters little in evaluating trades.

Do I have this right?

Or how about this. If Willingham is not hurt, does anybody complain about the trade? (If so, then you seriously need to reconsider your fantasy baseball evaluations.)

If not, then how can complaints be justified, where it is A KEEPER LEAGUE?!?!?

Finally, let me explain why I am pissed about my treatment. Some trades were, I thought, pretty dumb. So what? This is not an issue, unless I believe there is collusion. We are all entitled to our opinions on player evaluation. Who the hell am I to force my player evaluation on other managers???

Then, I get grief for the Hanrahan, Simon, etc. trade. Dan was the other manager. The trade is put to a vote. Clearly, Dan has interests that do not involve keeping dogshit like Simon. The trade goes through.

A short time later, this dispute arises. I am involved in a trade with a different manager. Once again, there is no suggestion of collusion - unless some are saying that somehow, Svengali-like, I can get two different managers to collude for my benefit.

So two trades are the subject of complaint. Both mine.

And correct me if I am wrong but if you guys felt that I was giving up too much for what I was getting, would I hear a word? Of course not. So the trade limitation appears to work as follows: If the collective consciousness believes that I am fucked, no problem. If the collective consciousness believes that I benefit, alarms go off.

Seems problematic to me.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 10:48 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Wow, there's an overreaction, no one is saying Willingham isn't a useful fantasy player, he just not a top 100 player.

So what? If he is top-120, then he is a keeper. 10 players/team x 12 teams = 120 players.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 11:30 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
And finally, after re-reading some of the comments, let me point out:

(1) Ichiro was such a roto stud that he was not protected last year and went in the 11th round.


This is quite a bit misleading, don't you think? The 11th round is actually the 1st round, as the first 10 rounds are the assigned keepers. Ichiro was the third overall pick. But if we are using last year's draft status to evaluate someone's fantasy value, might I point out that Willingham lasted 13 rounds in the draft (23rd round overall).

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(6) I accept the observations, but feel compelled to point out that my valuation of players has yielded 103 points, while the contrary valuation has yielded a shitload less points.


I don't know how to even respond to this one.

The bottom line is this: Willingham, using the most charitable evaluations, is a very borderline keeper. Certainly, in a league where only a total of 120 players are kept, he is not among those 120. Further, to say that he is a keeper because you believe him to be the 10th best player on Minsk's team is quite disingenuous, as there is much trading that takes place in the offseason. This is similar to saying that Duke is our 5th best pitcher right now, so we should plan on having him in our rotation next year.

I do not enjoy controversy. I do not want to veto trades. I contacted Minsk and asked for him to explain his desire to acquire Willingham. I have not heard from him, and I have to choose whether to block it this evening. I am therefore inclined to block this trade. I do not believe there was collusion. I am not trying to single you out. However, I am of the belief that- malicious or not- some of the more serious players (including myself, I admit) tend to "take advantage" of those new to the game or who aren't as intense at managing their team. Because I have received so many protests, I'm going to block it. I would hope that this doesn't discourage future trading- I think Minsk is smart to shop players like Ichiro. But the value of SB's should ensure that he gets more than a borderline keeper. There is still a week before the deadline- if I get an email from Minsk stating that Willingham is really the player that he wants, there is still time to revisit the trade.

As for the standings, Bucfan- you do in fact have things locked up. Even if you drop 12 points, I can not catch you. I've done the math, my starters must put up a sub 1.50 ERA and sub 0.90 WHIP here on out for me to make up enough points- assuming I gain the maximum amount of points in other categories- to make a move. And Haren, Gallardo, and Marmol are torpedoing me again this evening. So, congrats.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 12:01 am 
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I'm done with this argument. In a keeper league when a team at the top of the standings trades with a team at the bottom late in the season it draws interest from me...and maybe that's just me. I expect to see the bottom team get something better than Willingham. If you would trade a Pedro Alvarez type guy because you want to secure your standing by improving a certain category fine. You've given up a clear keeper and solid future player to win now. It's what makes a keeper league fun. That's a decision you have to make. But you gave up Josh Willingham....a decent player, but one who you can find similar players on waivers(think Luke Scott for example...just an example).

I don't think there is collusion. I don't think you are wiring payments to Minsk. I just think it's a really bad trade for the integrity of the "fantasy pennant race". I'd say the same thing if BBF made a similar trade. It's not personal against you by any means. I actually agree with you that there have been a ton of trades in this league that I don't really get. Some people seem to trade just to trade by the looks of it.

And you are the one that has patted himself on the back in every post in this thread for his "evaluation skills" because you are in first place. Big deal. I'm in first place in two leagues and out of it in two leagues...big deal. Doesn't mean I'm a genius in two leagues and an idiot in the other two. Just the way things fall...You are right, everyone has a difference of opinions on players.

Again, I'm done with the argument. Trade or don't trade. Doesn't really matter to me. But I'm not going to NOT voice my opinion if I see something that I think is a negative for the good of the league. Again....it's not a personal attack on you by any means. I wouldn't care who the two teams are.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 12:44 am 
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BBF wrote:
This is quite a bit misleading, don't you think? The 11th round is actually the 1st round, as the first 10 rounds are the assigned keepers. Ichiro was the third overall pick. But if we are using last year's draft status to evaluate someone's fantasy value, might I point out that Willingham lasted 13 rounds in the draft (23rd round overall).

One has underproduced, one has overproduced. Now, they are both 12-14 round picks. I prefer Willingham big-time over Ichiro. He will maul him in terms of HR's, RBI's and OBP. He is relatively close in runs. He also was going to steal 15 bases, until the knee injury.

Ichiro is 100 years old and his one big contribution - SB's - is lost once he loses a step. Like, next week.

And the big difference is this. Willingham is drawing a ton of walks and is 31. He will continue to walk. Ichiro's average is declining, as expected, as he turns 37 next year. His low walk rate means declining OBP. He is soon going to be a 2-category player.

BBF wrote:
The bottom line is this: Willingham, using the most charitable evaluations, is a very borderline keeper. Certainly, in a league where only a total of 120 players are kept, he is not among those 120. Further, to say that he is a keeper because you believe him to be the 10th best player on Minsk's team is quite disingenuous, as there is much trading that takes place in the offseason. This is similar to saying that Duke is our 5th best pitcher right now, so we should plan on having him in our rotation next year.

Look, I don't know how to be more clear about this. Ichiro is not a better keeper at this point than Willingham. Ichiro is aging, has no power, drives in no runs and will suffer declining SB's and OBP. I hope one of you guys invests a top-10 pick on him next year.

BBF wrote:
I do not enjoy controversy. I do not want to veto trades. I contacted Minsk and asked for him to explain his desire to acquire Willingham. I have not heard from him, and I have to choose whether to block it this evening. I am therefore inclined to block this trade.

Okay. The commissioner's decisions control. I don't agree with the decision, but my consent or disagreement is not controlling.

BBF wrote:
I do not believe there was collusion. I am not trying to single you out.

I have been the only one whose trades have been challenged this season. So I have been singled out this season. That is a statement of fact.

BBF wrote:
However, I am of the belief that- malicious or not- some of the more serious players (including myself, I admit) tend to "take advantage" of those new to the game or who aren't as intense at managing their team.

Minsk is one of the more involved, active, and interested managers in the league.

Some managers do not bother to respond to trade offers. Minsk does. I don't bother with trade offers to some guys, but Minsk is responsive. He and I worked out a big trade involving Nelson Cruz, Matt Cain and others. He is not uninformed.

He made the trade proposal, noting that his season was over. He was turning Ichiro into something of value. As of yet, I have not heard anybody else make on offer.

BBF wrote:
Because I have received so many protests, I'm going to block it. I would hope that this doesn't discourage future trading-

Apparently, the way it works, if people think I am getting screwed, no harm. If I get a good deal, protests.

So of course it is going to dissuade me from becoming involved in trades. How would it not?

BBF wrote:
I think Minsk is smart to shop players like Ichiro. But the value of SB's should ensure that he gets more than a borderline keeper. There is still a week before the deadline- if I get an email from Minsk stating that Willingham is really the player that he wants, there is still time to revisit the trade.

Once again, this presumes that Ichiro is more than a borderline keeper. I can basically guarantee that he is not a keeper on my team. His ONE value (SB's), I have better options.

BBF wrote:
As for the standings, Bucfan- you do in fact have things locked up. Even if you drop 12 points, I can not catch you. I've done the math, my starters must put up a sub 1.50 ERA and sub 0.90 WHIP here on out for me to make up enough points- assuming I gain the maximum amount of points in other categories- to make a move. And Haren, Gallardo, and Marmol are torpedoing me again this evening. So, congrats.

If I fall to 91 points, you would need to gain 8.5. Given where you are in terms of ERA and WHIP, you can overtake 4 teams in each category.

I will fight to keep that from happening. However, I am in deep shit in IP. I will lose ground in wins and K's very soon. I will struggle to decide which starter to play, if any, and when. I left Bumgarner on the bench today and started Lester. Bad choice.

The season will end with me losing a lot of points. I am trying to make up a few with SB's. I believe I can find 2 or even 2.5 points in that category.

But that is not going to happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 12:56 am 
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PirateParrot wrote:
And you are the one that has patted himself on the back in every post in this thread for his "evaluation skills" because you are in first place.

False.

PirateParrot wrote:
Big deal.

The entire argument is founded on the value we assign to Ichiro vs. Willingham.

The ENTIRE ARGUMENT.

I rank Ichiro low apart from one category - SB's. I rank Willingham as a solid, 4-category guy. In a keeper league, if you accept my evaluation, then the trade cannot be disputed very much.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:02 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
If I fall to 91 points, you would need to gain 8.5. Given where you are in terms of ERA and WHIP, you can overtake 4 teams in each category.



But, unfortunately, that is unlikely (p value of less than 0.001*). I would have to lower my ERA by a full half of a run, and my WHIP by 0.10. That is a nearly impossible feat this late in the season.


*I made up that p value.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:07 am 
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BBF wrote:
But, unfortunately, that is unlikely (p value of less than 0.001*). I would have to lower my ERA by a full half of a run, and my WHIP by 0.10. That is a nearly impossible feat this late in the season.


*I made up that p value.

That presumes that I do not lose ground in those categories. I am in trouble in terms of a lot of categories.

My lead is founded in large part on razor-thin margins in saves, RBI's, HR's, OBP, wins, and K's.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:08 am 
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Bucfan, the argument has nothing to do with Ichiro's value, no one thinks he's a keeper. This is entirely about Willingham's value as a 2011 keeper, not his numbers this year.

Frankly we don't care what your opinion on the trade is, you're the one winning it. All I want is an explanation from Minsk as to how this helps him. He provided no such post despite the fact that he was on the board yesterday. If Minsk simply posts a short insight into his logic then I'd be OK.

For the record, I defended your Berkman trade as I thought Lance was the best piece in the deal. Its nothing personal, please don't make it that way.

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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:09 am 
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BTW, if you want steals, I have the best guy in MLB to trade, Juan Pierre.

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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:38 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
BTW, if you want steals, I have the best guy in MLB to trade, Juan Pierre.

Pierre sucks. I am going to rely on Rollins, Gardner and Choo to get some SB's.

Unless I am misreading the concensus, it seems that Ichiro is not good enough to be a keeper, but most are questioning whether Willingham is.

That means the entire debate is based on how much you value Willingham. If he is not a top-20 on a roster, then the trade is pretty dubious.

If he is top-10, then no challenge is merited. If he is top-12, however, then maybe somebody can wonder about the trade, but really cannot raise a challenge.

I see Willingham as top-12 on my roster, right now. I see him as top-10 on a lot of rosters in this league. I see him as top-12 on virtually every roster, including mine.

So you see my confusion.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:48 pm 
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I think Ichiro is a keeper, at least for a lot of teams. His steals and OBP have been consistent and outstanding throughout his career. Even though he is getting "old", he doesn't play old. He stays in peak condition and plays more like a 27 year old, not 37. The one cause for concern with him is how bad his team is. He usually is automatice to score 100+ runs but he is way, way off that pace this year. He is having a slightly down year, but is still hitting over .300 with over 30 steals. To me 10 keepers is a lot, as the other league I'm in only keeps 4. If you are in a dynasty league then 10 probably seems small and may change a person's perspective. I still think at 10 keepers Ichiro is a keeper, or very close at the very least.

As for Pierre, Dopers, you were lucky enough that some imbecile dropped him earlier this year...jeez...who would have dropped all those steals for nothing???? :oops: :oops: :oops:


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 6:28 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
He is having a slightly down year, but is still hitting over .300 with over 30 steals.

But batting average is simply irrelevant in our league (and indeed, in real baseball). Ichiro does not walk and has never walked.

Guys who rely on BA for their OBP decline very rapidly when they get as old as Ichiro. Additionally, where he used to hit .340, he is now hitting .315. Good average, no doubt, but since his OBP is driven entirely by his average, the decline is significant.

Willingham walks more in two months than Ichiro does in a season. Willingham's OBP was .389 when he went on the DL. His OBP went below .400 only after he hurt his knee.

The last time Ichiro had an OBP better than .389 was 2007. He is not going to break .365 this year.


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