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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:02 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
If I fall to 91 points, you would need to gain 8.5. Given where you are in terms of ERA and WHIP, you can overtake 4 teams in each category.



But, unfortunately, that is unlikely (p value of less than 0.001*). I would have to lower my ERA by a full half of a run, and my WHIP by 0.10. That is a nearly impossible feat this late in the season.


*I made up that p value.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:07 am 
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BBF wrote:
But, unfortunately, that is unlikely (p value of less than 0.001*). I would have to lower my ERA by a full half of a run, and my WHIP by 0.10. That is a nearly impossible feat this late in the season.


*I made up that p value.

That presumes that I do not lose ground in those categories. I am in trouble in terms of a lot of categories.

My lead is founded in large part on razor-thin margins in saves, RBI's, HR's, OBP, wins, and K's.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:08 am 
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Bucfan, the argument has nothing to do with Ichiro's value, no one thinks he's a keeper. This is entirely about Willingham's value as a 2011 keeper, not his numbers this year.

Frankly we don't care what your opinion on the trade is, you're the one winning it. All I want is an explanation from Minsk as to how this helps him. He provided no such post despite the fact that he was on the board yesterday. If Minsk simply posts a short insight into his logic then I'd be OK.

For the record, I defended your Berkman trade as I thought Lance was the best piece in the deal. Its nothing personal, please don't make it that way.

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Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:09 am 
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BTW, if you want steals, I have the best guy in MLB to trade, Juan Pierre.

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Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:38 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
BTW, if you want steals, I have the best guy in MLB to trade, Juan Pierre.

Pierre sucks. I am going to rely on Rollins, Gardner and Choo to get some SB's.

Unless I am misreading the concensus, it seems that Ichiro is not good enough to be a keeper, but most are questioning whether Willingham is.

That means the entire debate is based on how much you value Willingham. If he is not a top-20 on a roster, then the trade is pretty dubious.

If he is top-10, then no challenge is merited. If he is top-12, however, then maybe somebody can wonder about the trade, but really cannot raise a challenge.

I see Willingham as top-12 on my roster, right now. I see him as top-10 on a lot of rosters in this league. I see him as top-12 on virtually every roster, including mine.

So you see my confusion.


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:48 pm 
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I think Ichiro is a keeper, at least for a lot of teams. His steals and OBP have been consistent and outstanding throughout his career. Even though he is getting "old", he doesn't play old. He stays in peak condition and plays more like a 27 year old, not 37. The one cause for concern with him is how bad his team is. He usually is automatice to score 100+ runs but he is way, way off that pace this year. He is having a slightly down year, but is still hitting over .300 with over 30 steals. To me 10 keepers is a lot, as the other league I'm in only keeps 4. If you are in a dynasty league then 10 probably seems small and may change a person's perspective. I still think at 10 keepers Ichiro is a keeper, or very close at the very least.

As for Pierre, Dopers, you were lucky enough that some imbecile dropped him earlier this year...jeez...who would have dropped all those steals for nothing???? :oops: :oops: :oops:


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 Post subject: Re: Pending Trade
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 6:28 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
He is having a slightly down year, but is still hitting over .300 with over 30 steals.

But batting average is simply irrelevant in our league (and indeed, in real baseball). Ichiro does not walk and has never walked.

Guys who rely on BA for their OBP decline very rapidly when they get as old as Ichiro. Additionally, where he used to hit .340, he is now hitting .315. Good average, no doubt, but since his OBP is driven entirely by his average, the decline is significant.

Willingham walks more in two months than Ichiro does in a season. Willingham's OBP was .389 when he went on the DL. His OBP went below .400 only after he hurt his knee.

The last time Ichiro had an OBP better than .389 was 2007. He is not going to break .365 this year.


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