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 Post subject: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:26 pm 
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Let's face it- that's what it's all about. With a decent staff this year we would have contended. Coonelly said this week they wouldn't be spending $10MM+ on a starter for next year, but I would sure feel better if we could get SOME help from the FA market. Could any of the following be had for less than that amount per year?

Brandon Looper
Kyle Lohse
Derek Lowe
Livan Hernandez
Ryan Dempster

I am assuming Ben Sheets and Jon Garland cannot.

Paul Maholm is said to be the only lock for a spot. If no FA is acquired, there would be 8 guys vying for the remaining 4 slots-

Snell
McCutchen
Ohlendorf
Karstens
Gorzo
Duke
Dumatrait
Barthmaier.

Duke is toast. Snell should be trade bait. Gorzo might be toast. Those 3 names right there are responsible for the trade of Nady and Bay.

I would like to see...

Maholm
Karstens
Ohlendorf
Free Agent
Gorzo or McCutchen

Dumatrait sixth man.


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:44 pm 
doug frobel wrote:
Let's face it- that's what it's all about. With a decent staff this year we would have contended. Coonelly said this week they wouldn't be spending $10MM+ on a starter for next year, but I would sure feel better if we could get SOME help from the FA market. Could any of the following be had for less than that amount per year?

Brandon Looper
Kyle Lohse
Derek Lowe
Livan Hernandez
Ryan Dempster

I am assuming Ben Sheets and Jon Garland cannot.

Paul Maholm is said to be the only lock for a spot. If no FA is acquired, there would be 8 guys vying for the remaining 4 slots-

Snell
McCutchen
Ohlendorf
Karstens
Gorzo
Duke
Dumatrait
Barthmaier.

Duke is toast. Snell should be trade bait. Gorzo might be toast. Those 3 names right there are responsible for the trade of Nady and Bay.

I would like to see...

Maholm
Karstens
Ohlendorf
Free Agent
Gorzo or McCutchen

Dumatrait sixth man.


Great post. I also hope they can bolster the rotation with a FA signing. (Personally, if you get Sheets or CC, I'd be OK with $10 mil, but that's not going to happen). So the best thing to do is sign a moderate-priced free agent, minor league free agents and let them all compete for the jobs.

I love that about NH/Coonley. They actually give themselves options at every position, which is a big part of producing winners in every sport, in my opinion. If you bank on one guy at every spot, when something inevitably goes wrong, you're screwed.

I'd love to see a slate of 8-10 legit guys battling for the 5 spots next year. \

I'd like to see:

Snell
Maholm
FA
Oldendorff
Gorzo/Karstens/


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 4:52 pm 
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Posts: 843
doug frobel wrote:
Let's face it- that's what it's all about. With a decent staff this year we would have contended. Coonelly said this week they wouldn't be spending $10MM+ on a starter for next year, but I would sure feel better if we could get SOME help from the FA market. Could any of the following be had for less than that amount per year?

Brandon Looper
Kyle Lohse
Derek Lowe
Livan Hernandez
Ryan Dempster

I am assuming Ben Sheets and Jon Garland cannot.

Paul Maholm is said to be the only lock for a spot. If no FA is acquired, there would be 8 guys vying for the remaining 4 slots-

Snell
McCutchen
Ohlendorf
Karstens
Gorzo
Duke
Dumatrait
Barthmaier.

Duke is toast. Snell should be trade bait. Gorzo might be toast. Those 3 names right there are responsible for the trade of Nady and Bay.

I would like to see...

Maholm
Karstens
Ohlendorf
Free Agent
Gorzo or McCutchen

Dumatrait sixth man.


I don't think the time is right to go after any of the names on that list. The offense just isn't good enough to contend yet. In my opinion, they should see what they have in some of the younger guys, let the offense develop, and go after a free agent in two or three years.

For what it's worth, the guys on that list:

Looper: Probably can get him for well under $10 mil, but he's never pitched 200 innings, and in his two full seasons as a starter he's been less than impressive. He also turns 34 in October. Pass.

Lohse: Pitching well this year, but his career ERA is 4.68. Someone will be dumb enough to give him $10 mil next year based on his performance this season. Pass.

Lowe: Has been reasonably solid since moving to the NL in 2005, but makes $10 mil as it is and will not be taking a pay cut. Plus he's going to turn 36. Pass.

Hernandez: Where do I start? Even in Colorado, his 6.16 ERA this year is horrible. Also, he's got more miles on his odometer than my parents' '88 Olds. Pass. (Disclaimer: my parents don't actually have an '88 Olds.)

Dempster: He's having a Cy Young type season, and makes $7+ mil already, meaning he's getting $15 mil on the market next year. He's on the wrong side of 30 and hasn't been Mr. Consistent throughout his career. Pass.


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 5:17 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
I don't think the time is right to go after any of the names on that list. The offense just isn't good enough to contend yet. In my opinion, they should see what they have in some of the younger guys, let the offense develop, and go after a free agent in two or three years.



You're probably right about the timing- 2009 probably won't be the year one of these guys makes the difference for us. But most of them will be difference-makers for someone...


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 5:26 pm 
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doug frobel wrote:
jaybee24 wrote:
I don't think the time is right to go after any of the names on that list. The offense just isn't good enough to contend yet. In my opinion, they should see what they have in some of the younger guys, let the offense develop, and go after a free agent in two or three years.



You're probably right about the timing- 2009 probably won't be the year one of these guys makes the difference for us. But most of them will be difference-makers for someone...


I totally agree, when I say pass it's more a reflection of the Pirates' contention and payroll situation. Although some of those guys are just having career seasons in a contract year and will revert to form. I would be appalled if another Matt Morris happened to the team.


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:21 pm 
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I'm hoping that fatigue is the cause for Snell and Gorzo's troubles this year. I would like to see the following rotation (not in this order):

Maholm
Karstens
Ohlendorf
Gorzo
Dumatrait

Set the bullpen up like this:

Capps
Grabow
Bautista
Duke
Yates
Burnett
Davis


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:25 pm 
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I think that Snell is worth keeping. He's got the stuff to compete...he just needs to grow a set and throw inside once in and awhile. Find out whatever San Fransisco did to straighten Jason Schmidt a few years ago and see if works for Ian. Maybe we could threaten to change his name back to Oquendo and the fear of that would scare him straight? :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 4:07 am 
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Chris Anderson wrote:
I think that Snell is worth keeping. He's got the stuff to compete...he just needs to grow a set and throw inside once in and awhile. Find out whatever San Fransisco did to straighten Jason Schmidt a few years ago and see if works for Ian.


Someone quick get GNC on the phone for Ian, 30% discount if you ask for the 'Barry' Flavor...

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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:13 am 
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I hope there is something to that 200 inning theory regarding Snell and Gorzo. If so, will 4 months off solve it? Can they regain form next year? I hope so...


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:54 am 
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The 200 inning thing is supposed to be an injury thing, and no one here was worried about Snell starting the year.

While I can buy that they lost some velocity, or had to work through arm strength issues brought on by the usage (does one have to have that happen sometime, usually in the minors????), neither showed me injuries attributed to that theory.

I subscribe to the idea that most of it had to do with complacency and poor preparation that was exacerbated , in Gorzo's case, by usage. His ability to pitch with good control at AAA, then not at MLB shows me its more mental than anything at this point.

Unless we are going to change the theory to say 200 innings causes pitchers to lose control or break down in bad mechanics the next year.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 1:21 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
The 200 inning thing is supposed to be an injury thing, and no one here was worried about Snell starting the year.

While I can buy that they lost some velocity, or had to work through arm strength issues brought on by the usage (does one have to have that happen sometime, usually in the minors????), neither showed me injuries attributed to that theory.

I subscribe to the idea that most of it had to do with complacency and poor preparation that was exacerbated , in Gorzo's case, by usage. His ability to pitch with good control at AAA, then not at MLB shows me its more mental than anything at this point.

Unless we are going to change the theory to say 200 innings causes pitchers to lose control or break down in bad mechanics the next year.

ZM


There's a really good chapter in Baseball Prospectus's book "Baseball Between the Numbers" (I think that's what it's called) about this topic. Basically they conclude that it's not necessarily the number of innings, but instead the number of pitches in a given outing. In other words, a pitcher that goes for two 125 pitch outings on four days rest will be a lot worse off than a pitcher that goes for two 100 pitch outings on three days rest. I don't know what Gorzelanny's pitch counts were like last year, but I'm willing to wager that he had a lot of 120 pitch outings in the first half of the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Next Year's Starting Pitching
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:21 am 
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jaybee24 wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
The 200 inning thing is supposed to be an injury thing, and no one here was worried about Snell starting the year.

While I can buy that they lost some velocity, or had to work through arm strength issues brought on by the usage (does one have to have that happen sometime, usually in the minors????), neither showed me injuries attributed to that theory.

I subscribe to the idea that most of it had to do with complacency and poor preparation that was exacerbated , in Gorzo's case, by usage. His ability to pitch with good control at AAA, then not at MLB shows me its more mental than anything at this point.

Unless we are going to change the theory to say 200 innings causes pitchers to lose control or break down in bad mechanics the next year.

ZM


There's a really good chapter in Baseball Prospectus's book "Baseball Between the Numbers" (I think that's what it's called) about this topic. Basically they conclude that it's not necessarily the number of innings, but instead the number of pitches in a given outing. In other words, a pitcher that goes for two 125 pitch outings on four days rest will be a lot worse off than a pitcher that goes for two 100 pitch outings on three days rest. I don't know what Gorzelanny's pitch counts were like last year, but I'm willing to wager that he had a lot of 120 pitch outings in the first half of the season.


Gorzo threw lots of pitches per outing last year...His problem has been not being able to finish hitters off and working the count even or full on alot of hitters...

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For those jumping ship, we'll keep the bandwagon warm for you...


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