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 Post subject: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:42 am 
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Snell left with a lead that the Pirates never lost. He got the win. What are you talking about?


That was what was written (damn many w's, not used too ;) ) in another topic when Snell left after 7 innings leading 1-0, but finally Snell got the win even when the score was 4-1.. I thought like argentum that snell did not get the withbut he left after leading.. still strange couz he wasnt the active pitcher when the pirates scored 3 more and the cards got one back in the 9th.. explain 2 me please, couz this is not always the outcome..

and explain to me why pitchers are not credited with with more earned runs when a 3rd out is not made due to an error.. i understand that that run is unearned, but when a pitcher get beaten heavily afterwards all runs allowed after that error are unearned.. last year i saw "ollie" perez getting blown away after a not made 3rd out due to an error of the ss. the next 5 batters all got hits (homers, doubles) and all got in.. but all those runs were unearned..
That is the weardest rule i have ever seen about the ERA.. It makes pitchers do look good who are banged.. ;) eh hit
very hard..

can anybody (i trust on bucfan) give me the explaination.. Thanx

Hugo

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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 6:29 am 
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Ian was the winning pitcher. He is 5-10 now.

Unearned runs result from batters reaching base on errors (even errors by pitchers) and do not count toward ERA if they later score.


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:56 am 
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Hey Ollie..

Thanx, but i completely understand what they mean with unearned runs, but still
it's strange that runs committed after the error (that are not part of the made error)
are also unearned.. This way your ERA stays low, while u couldgive up 8 runs after that
error as example..

wow u could give up 10 runs in 9 innings, but as longs as those runs were scored after an
error they are unearned and your ERA stays 0.00 and u loose 10-1 for example..
pretty sick

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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:55 am 
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PiratesFan.from.NL wrote:
Quote:
Snell left with a lead that the Pirates never lost. He got the win. What are you talking about?


That was what was written (damn many w's, not used too ;) ) in another topic when Snell left after 7 innings leading 1-0, but finally Snell got the win even when the score was 4-1.. I thought like argentum that snell did not get the withbut he left after leading.. still strange couz he wasnt the active pitcher when the pirates scored 3 more and the cards got one back in the 9th.. explain 2 me please, couz this is not always the outcome..


I'm not big on following rules so I'm usually the last person you want to interpret them, but Snell got the win because he left the game with a lead that his team did not relinquish. That's the rules. So even though the Pirates surrendered the lead that Snell had when he left the game, they were still ahead in the score. In my mind there's some failed logic there, but hey, you gotta go by the book.

PiratesFan.from.NL wrote:
and explain to me why pitchers are not credited with with more earned runs when a 3rd out is not made due to an error.. i understand that that run is unearned, but when a pitcher get beaten heavily afterwards all runs allowed after that error are unearned.. last year i saw "ollie" perez getting blown away after a not made 3rd out due to an error of the ss. the next 5 batters all got hits (homers, doubles) and all got in.. but all those runs were unearned..
That is the weardest rule i have ever seen about the ERA.. It makes pitchers do look good who are banged.. ;) eh hit
very hard..

can anybody (i trust on bucfan) give me the explaination.. Thanx

Hugo


There are quite a few rule gurus here, of which Bucfan is one, so I'm sure they'll give you a better answer than me, but "unearned runs" is a very nebulous concept.


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 11:41 am 
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PiratesFan.from.NL wrote:
Quote:
Snell left with a lead that the Pirates never lost. He got the win. What are you talking about?


That was what was written (damn many w's, not used too ;) ) in another topic when Snell left after 7 innings leading 1-0, but finally Snell got the win even when the score was 4-1.. I thought like argentum that snell did not get the withbut he left after leading.. still strange couz he wasnt the active pitcher when the pirates scored 3 more and the cards got one back in the 9th.. explain 2 me please, couz this is not always the outcome..

and explain to me why pitchers are not credited with with more earned runs when a 3rd out is not made due to an error.. i understand that that run is unearned, but when a pitcher get beaten heavily afterwards all runs allowed after that error are unearned.. last year i saw "ollie" perez getting blown away after a not made 3rd out due to an error of the ss. the next 5 batters all got hits (homers, doubles) and all got in.. but all those runs were unearned..
That is the weardest rule i have ever seen about the ERA.. It makes pitchers do look good who are banged.. ;) eh hit
very hard..

can anybody (i trust on bucfan) give me the explaination.. Thanx

Hugo


Yeah, I have to agree. So say a SS makes an error with two outs...the pitcher can go on to let up ten home runs after that, and none of them will be earned. But let's say the same SS made errors on two consecutive plays with one out...now the pitcher can let up 10 home runs, and they're earned. It makes no sense. Unless the defense is directly responsible for a runner reaching base, a run should be counted as earned no matter how many outs there are.

Baseball is filled with totally illogical rule quirks like that, and they drive me nuts. Other examples...why is a sacrifice fly not charged as an at-bat? Why does a batter who hits into a double play but drives in a run not get credited with an RBI?


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:13 pm 
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Two convincing articles on why the unearned-run rule is a stupid rule and needs to be abandoned:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2753

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2846

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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:28 pm 
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PiratesFan.from.NL wrote:
That was what was written (damn many w's, not used too ;) ) in another topic when Snell left after 7 innings leading 1-0, but finally Snell got the win even when the score was 4-1.. I thought like argentum that snell did not get the win but he left after leading.. still strange couz he wasnt the active pitcher when the pirates scored 3 more and the cards got one back in the 9th.. explain 2 me please, couz this is not always the outcome..

Hugo


A starting pitcher gets the win if and only if (1) he pitches at least five innings and (2) leaves the game with a lead that is never relinquished.

Therefore, a pitcher can go 5 innings and leave the game with a 1-0 lead. If his team then scores 5 runs in the top of the 6th, and the opposing team scores 5 in the bottom of the inning, and this scoring pattern continues for the remainder of the game, the final score would be 21-20 and the starting pitcher will get credit for the win.

Why? Because those are the rules.

PiratesFan.from.NL wrote:
and explain to me why pitchers are not credited with with more earned runs when a 3rd out is not made due to an error.. i understand that that run is unearned, but when a pitcher get beaten heavily afterwards all runs allowed after that error are unearned.. last year i saw "ollie" perez getting blown away after a not made 3rd out due to an error of the ss. the next 5 batters all got hits (homers, doubles) and all got in.. but all those runs were unearned..
That is the weardest rule i have ever seen about the ERA.. It makes pitchers do look good who are banged.. ;) eh hit
very hard..
Hugo


We had a discussion about this very point in another thread about 5 weeks ago. The pitcher is expected to get 3 outs in an inning. If he gets what should be 3 outs, but a runner gets on due to error, then the remaining batters in that inning are not the responsibility of the pitcher. All results after the third out should have been recorded are unearned runs.

10.18 An earned run is a run for which the pitcher is held accountable. In determining earned runs, the inning should be reconstructed without the errors (which include catcher's interference) and passed balls, and the benefit of the doubt should always be given to the pitcher in determining which bases would have been reached by errorless play. For the purpose of determining earned runs, an intentional base on balls, regardless of the circumstances, shall be construed in exactly the same manner as any other base on balls.

(a) An earned run shall be charged every time a runner reaches home base by the aid of safe hits, sacrifice bunts, a sacrifice fly, stolen bases, putouts, fielder's choices, bases on balls, hit batters, balks or wild pitches (including a wild pitch on third strike which permits a batter to reach first base) before fielding chances have been offered to put out the offensive team. For the purpose of this rule, a defensive interference penalty shall be construed as a fielding chance.


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:56 pm 
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Quote:
Baseball is filled with totally illogical rule quirks like that, and they drive me nuts. Other examples...why is a sacrifice fly not charged as an at-bat? Why does a batter who hits into a double play but drives in a run not get credited with an RBI?


Yeah!! another example i was thinking about when i just drove home from work.. weird..!

Quote:
We had a discussion about this very point in another thread about 5 weeks ago. The pitcher is expected to get 3 outs in an inning. If he gets what should be 3 outs, but a runner gets on due to error, then the remaining batters in that inning are not the responsibility of the pitcher. All results after the third out should have been recorded are unearned runs.


Well, it are rules but it makes the E.R.A. less meaningfull.. don't you agree..

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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:13 pm 
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The runs are unearned becasue if the third out was retired, the inning would be over and those hitters would not have come to the plate in that particular inning. If during the next inning, all those hits occurred, they would then be earned runs.

When Snell left the game, we were ahead 1-0. We then scored 3 in the top of the 9th to extend the lead to 4-0. If the Cards had scored the one run to tie it before the Bucs extended the lead, then Snell would not have gotten the win.


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:38 pm 
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What bugs me is that the runs can be unearned, but the hits that drive them in are still counted against the pitcher's WHIP and BAA in the same way. If the logic is that the pitcher wouldn't have given up those later runs had the out been recorded, then it follows that he also wouldn't have given up any subsequent hits.

But, the question that I think needs to be answered is what difference does it make? If a pitcher has a good ERA, he probably doesn't allow that many unearned runs, either. Likewise, I doubt there are many pitchers that have high ERA's but never allow unearned runs. I've yet to be convinced that RA wouldn't be just as good a barometer of a pitcher's ability as ERA (especially if you evaluate it in the context of the defensive efficiency of the team he is pitching in front of).

And, of course, all of this ignores the fact that it is all based on an "official scorer" making judgement calls, and the exclusion of many mental errors (outfielders failing to throw to the correct base, etc).


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:06 pm 
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BBF wrote:
But, the question that I think needs to be answered is what difference does it make? If a pitcher has a good ERA, he probably doesn't allow that many unearned runs, either. Likewise, I doubt there are many pitchers that have high ERA's but never allow unearned runs. I've yet to be convinced that RA wouldn't be just as good a barometer of a pitcher's ability as ERA (especially if you evaluate it in the context of the defensive efficiency of the team he is pitching in front of).

It matters for pitchers that tend to induce many errors and passed balls from the defense. Barry Zito and most knuckleball pitchers fall into this category.

But it also matters just for the sake of accurate record keeping. In 2007 Oliver Perez had a 3.56 ERA with the Mets because he gave up 70 "earned" runs in 177 IP, but he also gave up 20 additional "unearned" runs. His RA that year was 4.58. Not one of his rotation teammates had a difference that big, so it can't all be the defense. So is it really fair to classify Perez as such a superior pitcher that year (NL ERA was 4.43 in 2007) when his RA makes him look much more average (NL RA was 4.80 in 2007)?

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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:00 pm 
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What gets me is this logic that if the defense had recorded the third out, the pitcher wouldn't have given up all those runs. But in other areas, MLB eschews the "would have" logic, like when a second baseman or SS makes a mistake throwing to first on a potential DP. In this case, an error is not scored because one cannot assume the double play would have happened. So in some cases it's ok to assume what would have happened, in others it's not.

This "would have" logic is also only applied with two outs for a potential third out. If there are no outs and an error is made, AND THEN two other outs are made, the inning would have been over. But in the situation I described, any runs against the pitcher (aside from the runner that reached base on the error) would be counted as earned. It's completely inconsistent.

Bottom line is that any runs for which a pitcher does not have an excuse of abnormally poor defense should be counted as earned. Period.


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:26 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:

This "would have" logic is also only applied with two outs for a potential third out. If there are no outs and an error is made, AND THEN two other outs are made, the inning would have been over. But in the situation I described, any runs against the pitcher (aside from the runner that reached base on the error) would be counted as earned. It's completely inconsistent.


Are you sure about that? I remember reading a primer somewhere that said to basically score an inning and count the error as an out. Any runs that score after the third "out" would then be unearned, regardless of whether the error was the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd out. Maybe that is wrong though.


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 3:46 pm 
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Hmmm...I could be wrong about that. The rule would definitely be more consistent if that were the case.


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:35 pm 
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We in the legal business (Bucfan, PoP) and those that are close to the ranks of being in the legal business (Willco) deal with a legal concept called proximate causation. In order for a plaintiff to recover damages against an alleged tortfeasor, the plaintiff must prove that his damages were proximately caused by the tortfeasor's wrongdoing. In the absence of proximate causation, there is no recovery. Often, this is referred to as a "but for" analysis. Ie; "But for" the alleged wrongful conduct, the person would not have been injured.

The concept of ERA is no different. Would the offense have scored any runs in a particular inning "but for" an error being committed by the defense (including that of the pitcher)? In other words, did the offense "earn" the run or was it "given" to them as a result of a defensive miscue?

Back in my playing days, it was relatively common - at the end of an inning in which the other team scored unearned runs - for the player who committed the error to tell the pitcher "not your fault, those runs are mine . . . keep pitching well . . . we'll get it next time." Merely illustrative.

It is certainly valid to debate whether ERA is a good measure of a pitcher's effectiveness or whether RA is a better measure or some complicated variation of a multitude of factors. However, that is a wholly different question. The concept of why a run is "unearned" versus "earned" is, IMO, pretty straight-forward and logical.

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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:44 pm 
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Quote:
The concept of ERA is no different. Would the offense have scored any runs in a particular inning "but for" an error being committed by the defense (including that of the pitcher)? In other words, did the offense "earn" the run or was it "given" to them as a result of a defensive miscue?


Maybe the logic overseas is completely different...

I have no problem with the runs that are scored due to an error, are turned to unearned runs.. but when the error-play
is completely of the bases and the pitcher afterwards gives up runs it is his own fault, he did not make the final out afterwards, before those extra runs came in.. he must be rewarded with those runs. he makes those pitches after that error.. that will show his real numbers.. even if it is maybe unfair couz the pitcher wasnt to blame for the error.. HE comitted those runs by his pitching.

What if the ball is hit to the pitcher with 2 outs, he tries to field the ball, sees he's to late to get the out probably and makes an error (nobody will see if it is done on purpose).. every run then scored isn't his fault? hey then i could
manipulate my own ERA.. the team could manipulate the ERA.. ??? just whobble the ball as an infielder and whatever happens next that inning, the team ERA and Pitchers ERA is still good. Strange

And i know rules are rules, but i love this as an open item to discuss..

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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 6:36 pm 
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Wouldn't do much for your win-loss record though would it?


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:03 pm 
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PiratesFan.from.NL wrote:
What if the ball is hit to the pitcher with 2 outs, he tries to field the ball, sees he's to late to get the out probably and makes an error (nobody will see if it is done on purpose).. every run then scored isn't his fault? hey then i could
manipulate my own ERA..


Why would a pitcher ever want to make an error on the 3rd out of an inning? To manipulate his ERA?

His ERA is improved by getting the third out and sitting down, since he has pitched 1/3 more innings. The more innings pitched (denominator in the ERA calculation), the lower the ERA.

So, no, that is not going to happen. Making an error on any ball, and particularly the third out of an inning, would be a way for the pitcher to throw extra pitches and run the risk of giving up runs that would not otherwise have scored, thereby greatly increasing his FL'ing - "freaking losing."


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:10 pm 
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Willton wrote:
It matters for pitchers that tend to induce many errors and passed balls from the defense. Barry Zito and most knuckleball pitchers fall into this category.


A pitcher may tend to induce more passed balls (pitches with wicked movement, misplayed by the catcher - knuckleball is a good example), but how exactly would a pitcher "induce errors"??

By getting the batter to hit a ball to the defense that should be an out? Ground balls, regular fly balls, etc.? Shouldn't the pitcher be rewarded - or at least not punished - for doing his job?

For some of you who do not realize it, Az and I share a view on this issue - the pitcher gets three routine infield grounders, he should not be charged with runs that scored because one or more of those ground balls is muffed by the defense.

And there should be no surprise that we also both have sons who pitch. When my kid needs to get 4 or even 5 outs in an inning, bad things often happen. Even if he battles through the inning, and winds up having to throw 25 pitches instead of 15, he pays for it later in the game. So, he is already paying a price for the defensive lapses that are not his fault - and some want to punish him more?


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 Post subject: Re: WTF explain to me...
PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:56 pm 
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PiratesFan.from.NL wrote:
Quote:
Snell left with a lead that the Pirates never lost. He got the win. What are you talking about?


That was what was written (damn many w's, not used too ;) ) in another topic when Snell left after 7 innings leading 1-0, but finally Snell got the win even when the score was 4-1.. I thought like argentum that snell did not get the withbut he left after leading.. still strange couz he wasnt the active pitcher when the pirates scored 3 more and the cards got one back in the 9th.. explain 2 me please, couz this is not always the outcome..

and explain to me why pitchers are not credited with with more earned runs when a 3rd out is not made due to an error.. i understand that that run is unearned, but when a pitcher get beaten heavily afterwards all runs allowed after that error are unearned.. last year i saw "ollie" perez getting blown away after a not made 3rd out due to an error of the ss. the next 5 batters all got hits (homers, doubles) and all got in.. but all those runs were unearned..
That is the weardest rule i have ever seen about the ERA.. It makes pitchers do look good who are banged.. ;) eh hit
very hard..

can anybody (i trust on bucfan) give me the explaination.. Thanx

Hugo

The rule for unearned runs made a lot more sense back when it was invented. It was common in the early days of baseball for fielders to make 40 - 60 errors in a season, and the seasons were a lot shorter than they are today. Check out this link (scroll down for the fielding stats)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/1882.shtml

That is the 1882 Cincinnati Red Stockings. They made 322 errors in 80 games. And they were the BEST defensive team in baseball. Baltimore, the worst, made 488 errors in 74 games.

Over the years fielding has improved, and, as fielding improved, more and more responsibility for a team's defense moved from the fielders to the pitchers. That's why some folks (including yours truly) don't care much for ERA.

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