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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:01 am 
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BBF wrote:
Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Very possibly Izturis would have been viewed as Jack's replacement, though Huntington is not Jim Tracy. It was Tracy who loved Izturis.

And having Jurrjens in the rotation for the next 6 years would have been a big deal. He is going to be a very good pitcher and win a ton of games.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:33 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
BBF wrote:
Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Very possibly Izturis would have been viewed as Jack's replacement, though Huntington is not Jim Tracy. It was Tracy who loved Izturis.

And having Jurrjens in the rotation for the next 6 years would have been a big deal. He is going to be a very good pitcher and win a ton of games.



Good point regarding Tracy and Izturis. If I recall, David Eckstein also was a free agent this offseason and signed for under $5 mil.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:11 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
They would have been a better team with Jurrjens and somebody else at SS.


Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Wow....can you give me the lottery numbers too?

You can't say that we'd be better off with those two as opposed to Wilson. Just giving a quick glance at the stats, Cesar is hitting .240/.345/.290.

It's that kind of mentality that drives me crazy.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:46 pm 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
They would have been a better team with Jurrjens and somebody else at SS.


Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Wow....can you give me the lottery numbers too?

You can't say that we'd be better off with those two as opposed to Wilson. Just giving a quick glance at the stats, Cesar is hitting .240/.345/.290.

It's that kind of mentality that drives me crazy.


Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:51 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


You're basing your judgement off of two months of baseball. Jurrjens has had two months of baseball.

There have been a lot of players who were world beaters for two months. I'm not ready to call this kid a good starting pitcher yet.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:33 pm 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


You're basing your judgement off of two months of baseball. Jurrjens has had two months of baseball.

There have been a lot of players who were world beaters for two months. I'm not ready to call this kid a good starting pitcher yet.



Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:54 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


You're basing your judgement off of two months of baseball. Jurrjens has had two months of baseball.

There have been a lot of players who were world beaters for two months. I'm not ready to call this kid a good starting pitcher yet.



Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.


Kris Benson was a great minor leaguer with good scouting reports.

Let's revisit this in August when the kid goes through the league the second time. It's so freaking easy to look great the first time you see a club. It gets a hell of a lot harder when major league hitters see you for the second and third time.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:51 am 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.

Kris Benson was a great minor leaguer with good scouting reports.

And for 2 years after he was called up, Benson was quite good in the majors. It was only after his excellent 2000 and subsequent Tommy John surgery that Benson fell apart. I'd hardly call Benson a failure of minor league evaluation and scouting reports.

Jeremy wrote:
Let's revisit this in August when the kid goes through the league the second time. It's so freaking easy to look great the first time you see a club. It gets a hell of a lot harder when major league hitters see you for the second and third time.

If the Pirates were to follow that philosophy, they'd never trade for anyone.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:15 am 
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I like Jurrjens based on seeing him pitch against the Pirates twice, and one other start that I viewed.

He has a filthy, diving fastball at 94 mph. Most guys who throw the two-seam/sinker are in the 88-91 mph range. Guys who throw that thing 94 are very, very rare and generally successful - Peavy, Oswalt, guys like that.

Jurrjens reminds me a lot of Oswalt. Not a big guy, but a very compact motion and the ball just explodes out of his hand with ridiculous movement.

The Pirates obviously scouted Jurrjens last year and knew that he had this stuff. That plays into evaluating their decision to pass on him.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 9:44 am 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.


Kris Benson was a great minor leaguer with good scouting reports.

Bad example. Kris Benson never did a damn thing above A ball. His ERA in AA was 4.98, and at AAA it was 5.37.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... nson.shtml

By the way, anecdotal evidence is worthless. It just turns into a he said/she said type of argument. I'm sure that you could point to minor league stars who flopped in the bigs all day long, and I could do the same thing with prospects who made it. If you want to show that minor league stats are meaningless then you need to do enough research to write a book about it. Besides, other people have already written those books, and they've concluded that minor league stats are actually meaningful. The problem is that they aren't easy to interpret.

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Let's revisit this in August when the kid goes through the league the second time. It's so freaking easy to look great the first time you see a club. It gets a hell of a lot harder when major league hitters see you for the second and third time.

That's reasonable, but even if he's getting lit up in August, the argument isn't over. He's got a whole career ahead of him.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:14 am 
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Jurgens is also only 22 years old(I think) so I think that adds to why it would have been a great addition. And without any doubt, adding a young power throwing right hander who by all accounts is wise beyond his years, to this rotation would have made the Pirates a much better team. Even without Jack Wilson. Unfortunately our esteemed ex-GM decided we needed another "veteran" major league ready player in the deal. I believe a guy(Monroe, if I remember correctly) who got released or traded for a bag of balls. Ugh....


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:00 am 
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Minor league stats can be a good indicator of major league success. CAN BE. Jeremy, I agree that minor league numbers are worth only so much. We've all seen "prospects" flop.

That said, I do like what I've seen of Jurrjens so far. But I also agree that I'll take it with a grain of salt until he's been in the bigs for a whole year.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:04 pm 
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I could agree with that in the sense that bad minor league stats are not going to translat to MLB success.

But, to say the minor league success translates to MLB success as some kind of predictor, is a reach. I could buy that successful minor league stats can increase or decrease the odds that your prediction of success is, well, successful.

Jurjjens seems to have a lot of talent and poise. So did Snell and Gorzo and Duke their first go around. And, we see what can happen in the second or third year.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:02 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
But, to say the minor league success translates to MLB success as some kind of predictor, is a reach.


Now, where have I seen this discussion before? Ah, yes, here. ;)

Well, at least before the hackers found us.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:06 pm 
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Bob in Boston wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
But, to say the minor league success translates to MLB success as some kind of predictor, is a reach.

Now, where have I seen this discussion before? Ah, yes, here. ;)

Well, at least before the hackers found us.

Bastard hackers. Now we have to have this discussion all over again. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:00 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I could agree with that in the sense that bad minor league stats are not going to translat to MLB success.

But, to say the minor league success translates to MLB success as some kind of predictor, is a reach. I could buy that successful minor league stats can increase or decrease the odds that your prediction of success is, well, successful.

That's exactly what they do. I think that you're using the word "predictor" as if it implies certainty. It doesn't.

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