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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:10 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
Jeremy wrote:
chetthespian wrote:
The goal is to break the .500 barrier? That was the problem of the last administration. Yes, you want to start winning because we're not going to win a World Series overnight. But there is no reason to fight for .500 if its not going to help you move towards what the real goal is: a championship.


So improving from year to year isn't moving towards the goal of a World Series? Breaking through that huge mental barrier of .500 isn't moving towards a World Series?

I can tell you this right now, selling off all the decent talent on this club would be one of the worst mistakes that could be made. All that's going to do is send a message to anyone paying attention that the Pirates have totally given up any hope of winning anything and are willing to be the AAA team to the stars.

Pearce and AM might be good prospects, but they damn sure aren't ready for prime time yet.

The goal is not to improve a little every year. The goal is to put a championship quality team on the field. If the best way to do that is to trade off everybody over the age of 26 who has any value, then that's what you should do.


Go and ask the Marlins what happens when you sell, and it would be selling, off everyone of value.

I'll save you the time by telling you that you suck bad.....real bad. And what you get in return is never worth what you sold.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:19 am 
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Jeremy wrote:
Go and ask the Marlins what happens when you sell, and it would be selling, off everyone of value.

I'll save you the time by telling you that you suck bad.....real bad. And what you get in return is never worth what you sold.

Yeah, that Hanley Ramirez guy is terrible. :roll:

You're acting as if the Marlins would not have sucked if they had not done so. I'm pretty sure the Marlins would have still lost bad if they had not traded Backett and Delgado in 2005. Just like how the Pirates are still not going to win in 2009 if they hold on to Nady and Bay.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:24 am 
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Jeremy wrote:
Go and ask the Marlins what happens when you sell, and it would be selling, off everyone of value.

I'll save you the time by telling you that you suck bad.....real bad. And what you get in return is never worth what you sold.

I didn't say that the Pirates should trade everybody for whatever they can get. You need to get value in return, or you wait until you can. Your example, the Marlins, did not even try to get value in return. Their fire sale (after their first WS, at least; I didn't really analyze the one after their second) had one goal: reduce payroll to an absolute minimum, and they did it because their owner was a bitter SOB who was pissed off that Florida taxpayers balked at giving one of the richest men in the country a free ballpark. They made no effort to build for the future at all. I want the Pirates to build a contender in whatever way they can. Given the fact that they cannot afford to buy a team that can contend through free agency, the best option is through the draft and trades. If you'd prefer that they hold on to the mediocre players they have until the draft produces a contender, that's fine. I'm not that patient.

So you can tell me "go and ask the Marlins", but the Marlins are not an example of what I want the Pirates to do. Oakland is an example of what I want to do. Cleveland is an example of what I want to do. Not the Marlins. When I tell you to go and ask the Pirates, it's because what you are recommending is exactly what they've been doing for 15 years now, and contention is still not on the radar.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:41 am 
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Willton wrote:
Just like how the Pirates are still not going to win in 2009 if they hold on to Nady and Bay.


(1) I think we can agree that the Pirates are definitely not going to win in 2009 if they trade Nady and Bay.
(2) The question is, "Will the Pirates make themselves a winner by 2010 or, more likely, 2011, by trading Nady and Bay?"
(3) The answer to that question depends on who they get in exchange for Nady and/or Bay.
(4) The point raised by MM, Elmer, Jeremy and me is, "What are the chances that the Pirates get players in trade who are better than Nady and Bay?"
(5) My belief is that the Pirates are not likely to get players who turn out to be better than Nady or Bay.

The real issue is that the Pirates apparently are not willing to pay to keep Nady ("he has Boras as an agent, blah, blah"). That is the real issue here - are the Pirates willing to spend to keep guys who have talent?*

*For purposes of this discussion, I ignore Sisy's argument that Nady is not a good player and not worth keeping. If that were the case, then of course the Pirates would not get anything in return for him in trade. That position also simply ignores Nady's hitting the past 1+ seasons and his defensive skills in RF.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:25 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
Willton wrote:
Just like how the Pirates are still not going to win in 2009 if they hold on to Nady and Bay.


(1) I think we can agree that the Pirates are definitely not going to win in 2009 if they trade Nady and Bay.
(2) The question is, "Will the Pirates make themselves a winner by 2010 or, more likely, 2011, by trading Nady and Bay?"
(3) The answer to that question depends on who they get in exchange for Nady and/or Bay.
(4) The point raised by MM, Elmer, Jeremy and me is, "What are the chances that the Pirates get players in trade who are better than Nady and Bay?"
(5) My belief is that the Pirates are not likely to get players who turn out to be better than Nady or Bay.


I just can't agree with you on that. They most certainly can. Look what they gave up to get Giles, Jack Wilson, Bay and Freddy Sanchez. It's all about what their trading partner needs, and how bad they need it. And remember that they don't have to trade for a single player. They might get back a guy who turns into Jason Bay and a guy who turns into John Grabow, which is a net win.

Another point is that they can trade Nady or Bay for equal value in return, as long as that player has less service time. That frees up money to improve the team elsewhere.

Bucfan wrote:
The real issue is that the Pirates apparently are not willing to pay to keep Nady ("he has Boras as an agent, blah, blah"). That is the real issue here - are the Pirates willing to spend to keep guys who have talent?*

*For purposes of this discussion, I ignore Sisy's argument that Nady is not a good player and not worth keeping. If that were the case, then of course the Pirates would not get anything in return for him in trade. That position also simply ignores Nady's hitting the past 1+ seasons and his defensive skills in RF.

You just can't help yourself, can you? My argument is that Nady is a below average right fielder. He is not worth keeping for the Pirates at what he'll cost them. And I've already posted that they can get a good return for him, explained why, and given examples of similar trades.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:30 am 
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As for how you do both: 1 -Draft better/develop better. 2. - Spend money on the current. This team was the third most profitable team in baseball last year and had the third lowest payroll. I'm not advocating Burnitz signings, but I think going after some free agents will help your current team.


Draft better/develop better, yes that I agree with, Spend money on the current? This concept I keep hearing but what I never hear is who should have we spent money on? AROD? Sure, I'd like the Pirates to spend money too, but on the right people. Name me someone in FA that would have done anything for us this year.


Additionally, who on this board said anything about a firesale? I haven't heard it mentioned from anyone on this side of the isle as a solution to our problems. I said trade away some of the older talent only if we can get something quality in return. Giles netted us some quality at the deadline did he not? If we wait until the end of the season we risk injury and decline of skills. Sell high!


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:34 am 
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Hindsight is always 20-15(as Coach Tomlin would say), if we traded Jack for Jurjens then we would be watching Bixler hit .180 all year. Without Jack in the lineup our defense is limited.

So Lee has an 0.67 ERA, can anyone on this board tell me he was going to do that. Most of you balked at the deal because of his involvement.

And another thing, all this stressing over us getting good quality from deals, NH hasn't made a deal yet. The "trade abuse" some of you are referring to is from the previous regime. Jeez, give this guy a chance already.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:54 am 
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Cliff Lee is pitching like he is possessed by Sandy Koufax. The PPG reports that the Indians wanted to include him in the Bay trade to dump his salary, and the Pirates wanted a younger, cheaper pitcher. No question that very few (nobody) would have foreseen him pitching this well.

But as for Jurrjens, he was a highly-rated prospect. Wilson would have been moved and the Pirates would have obtained a SS to take his place. They have gone 18-20 basically without Jurrjens, and with lousy SS play. They would have been a better team with Jurrjens and somebody else at SS.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:57 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
They would have been a better team with Jurrjens and somebody else at SS.


Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:00 am 
Bucfan wrote:
Willton wrote:
Just like how the Pirates are still not going to win in 2009 if they hold on to Nady and Bay.


(1) I think we can agree that the Pirates are definitely not going to win in 2009 if they trade Nady and Bay.
(2) The question is, "Will the Pirates make themselves a winner by 2010 or, more likely, 2011, by trading Nady and Bay?"
(3) The answer to that question depends on who they get in exchange for Nady and/or Bay.
(4) The point raised by MM, Elmer, Jeremy and me is, "What are the chances that the Pirates get players in trade who are better than Nady and Bay?"
(5) My belief is that the Pirates are not likely to get players who turn out to be better than Nady or Bay.

The real issue is that the Pirates apparently are not willing to pay to keep Nady ("he has Boras as an agent, blah, blah"). That is the real issue here - are the Pirates willing to spend to keep guys who have talent?*

*For purposes of this discussion, I ignore Sisy's argument that Nady is not a good player and not worth keeping. If that were the case, then of course the Pirates would not get anything in return for him in trade. That position also simply ignores Nady's hitting the past 1+ seasons and his defensive skills in RF.


Exactly Bucfan. The ultimate goal is to contend. Part of what makes you a contender is trading for GOOD, young prospects WHEN IT MAKES SENSE. Perpetual rebuilding will not make you a contender. At some point you have to spend some $ and keep some players.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:01 am 
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BBF wrote:
Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Very possibly Izturis would have been viewed as Jack's replacement, though Huntington is not Jim Tracy. It was Tracy who loved Izturis.

And having Jurrjens in the rotation for the next 6 years would have been a big deal. He is going to be a very good pitcher and win a ton of games.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:33 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
BBF wrote:
Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Very possibly Izturis would have been viewed as Jack's replacement, though Huntington is not Jim Tracy. It was Tracy who loved Izturis.

And having Jurrjens in the rotation for the next 6 years would have been a big deal. He is going to be a very good pitcher and win a ton of games.



Good point regarding Tracy and Izturis. If I recall, David Eckstein also was a free agent this offseason and signed for under $5 mil.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:11 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
They would have been a better team with Jurrjens and somebody else at SS.


Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Wow....can you give me the lottery numbers too?

You can't say that we'd be better off with those two as opposed to Wilson. Just giving a quick glance at the stats, Cesar is hitting .240/.345/.290.

It's that kind of mentality that drives me crazy.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:46 pm 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
They would have been a better team with Jurrjens and somebody else at SS.


Actually, I suspect they would have picked up Mr. Izturis' option, and yes, we would have been a better team with Jurrjens and Izturis than we are with Jack.


Wow....can you give me the lottery numbers too?

You can't say that we'd be better off with those two as opposed to Wilson. Just giving a quick glance at the stats, Cesar is hitting .240/.345/.290.

It's that kind of mentality that drives me crazy.


Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:51 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


You're basing your judgement off of two months of baseball. Jurrjens has had two months of baseball.

There have been a lot of players who were world beaters for two months. I'm not ready to call this kid a good starting pitcher yet.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:33 pm 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


You're basing your judgement off of two months of baseball. Jurrjens has had two months of baseball.

There have been a lot of players who were world beaters for two months. I'm not ready to call this kid a good starting pitcher yet.



Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:54 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Sorry dude, Jurrjens is much much more valuable than Jack Wilson. Starting pitching, GOOD starting pitching, is the holy grail of baseball. The difference between Jurrjens and Dumatrait is much bigger than the difference between Izturis or Eckstein and Jack.


You're basing your judgement off of two months of baseball. Jurrjens has had two months of baseball.

There have been a lot of players who were world beaters for two months. I'm not ready to call this kid a good starting pitcher yet.



Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.


Kris Benson was a great minor leaguer with good scouting reports.

Let's revisit this in August when the kid goes through the league the second time. It's so freaking easy to look great the first time you see a club. It gets a hell of a lot harder when major league hitters see you for the second and third time.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:51 am 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.

Kris Benson was a great minor leaguer with good scouting reports.

And for 2 years after he was called up, Benson was quite good in the majors. It was only after his excellent 2000 and subsequent Tommy John surgery that Benson fell apart. I'd hardly call Benson a failure of minor league evaluation and scouting reports.

Jeremy wrote:
Let's revisit this in August when the kid goes through the league the second time. It's so freaking easy to look great the first time you see a club. It gets a hell of a lot harder when major league hitters see you for the second and third time.

If the Pirates were to follow that philosophy, they'd never trade for anyone.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:15 am 
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I like Jurrjens based on seeing him pitch against the Pirates twice, and one other start that I viewed.

He has a filthy, diving fastball at 94 mph. Most guys who throw the two-seam/sinker are in the 88-91 mph range. Guys who throw that thing 94 are very, very rare and generally successful - Peavy, Oswalt, guys like that.

Jurrjens reminds me a lot of Oswalt. Not a big guy, but a very compact motion and the ball just explodes out of his hand with ridiculous movement.

The Pirates obviously scouted Jurrjens last year and knew that he had this stuff. That plays into evaluating their decision to pass on him.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 9:44 am 
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Jeremy wrote:
BBF wrote:
Well then tell me at what point you would be ready to call him a good starting pitcher. I would be more than happy to revisit this issue at that point. FYI, I'm not basing it on two months of baseball. You seem to think minor league track record and/or scouting reports mean nothing.


Kris Benson was a great minor leaguer with good scouting reports.

Bad example. Kris Benson never did a damn thing above A ball. His ERA in AA was 4.98, and at AAA it was 5.37.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... nson.shtml

By the way, anecdotal evidence is worthless. It just turns into a he said/she said type of argument. I'm sure that you could point to minor league stars who flopped in the bigs all day long, and I could do the same thing with prospects who made it. If you want to show that minor league stats are meaningless then you need to do enough research to write a book about it. Besides, other people have already written those books, and they've concluded that minor league stats are actually meaningful. The problem is that they aren't easy to interpret.

Quote:
Let's revisit this in August when the kid goes through the league the second time. It's so freaking easy to look great the first time you see a club. It gets a hell of a lot harder when major league hitters see you for the second and third time.

That's reasonable, but even if he's getting lit up in August, the argument isn't over. He's got a whole career ahead of him.

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