BBF wrote:
Can someone give me some support for this point, aside from anecdotal cases like Hermansen? What says the failure rate of, say a teams top 30 prospects, is greater than the chance that Nady fails to put up these numbers again next year, or even the rest of this year?
I could not find a site that listed the percentage of players who made the major leagues from the minors for all years. One reference source analyzed the 2002 draft (the subject of "Moneyball" and Billy Beane's draft strategy), and found that the percentage of players who reached the majors by 2006 or were likely to reach the majors was just 104 out of 1484, or 7%.
http://baseballevolution.com/guest/rich ... eane1.htmlThis does not reflect the percentage who reach the majors and stay, and become regular contributors - just the number who make it to the majors.
The number who become regular contributors is much, much, much lower - maybe 30 in the 2002 draft, out of 1484 picks - or about 2%.
Another site reported that 5% of minor league players will reach the majors.
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Players have to live outside baseball at least for a time even as they strive to be the one in 20 minor leaguers who make it to the big leagues."
http://www.drexel.edu/univrel/drexelink ... l=11&num=6Obviously, the chances of a minor league player reaching the majors increase as the level of play is higher. A greater percentage of players in AA reach the majors than those in high A, and so on.
Further, players who are successful in the minors at high A or AA have a greater chance of reaching the majors - probably much greater - than the overall talent pool.
So, if we presume that the chances of reaching the majors for a touted prospect in AA are 10x to 15x greater than the total talent pool, that would mean that the likelihood that the player makes it to the Pirates is something on the order of 50% to 75%.
And what are the chances that the player makes the starting rotation and performs, or is a regular position player and hits 20 HR's and drives in 75 runs?
Pretty darn low. In 2007, there were a total of 202 minor league teams (including independent leagues). There were a total of 185 affiliated minor leage teams. Each team has on average 13 position players, for a total of 2405 minor league position players. A number of guys are promoted and occupy a spot on more than one team, but an equal number are released.
In 2007, a total of 86 players had at least 20 HR's. A total of 89 players drove in at least 75 runs. There are 30 major league teams, with an average of 13 position players on each team, for a total of 390 position players.
Add the major league players to the minor league rosters yields 2795 players. A number of those guys were in the minors and the majors, so move the number down to 2700 players.
So, overall, using last year as a measuring stick, the chances are 1 in 31 that a player on a professional roster will hit at least 20 HR's in the majors or drive in at least 75 runs.
Additionally, of the players who drove in at least 75 runs, 69 also had at least 20 HR's. That means basically that the chances of a player in the minors reaching the majors and hitting 20 HR's and driving in 75 runs are approximately
1 in 39.
So if the Pirates trade Bay or Nady, the chances of them getting a player who hits 20 HR's and drives in at least 75 runs would appear to be maybe 1 in 3 or 1 in 2, presuming that the talent level for the prospect obtained is
10 to 15 times better than the entire pool of minor league talent. (1/39 x 10 = 10/39 or 26%; 1/39 x 15 = 15/39 or 46%.)