Jay, as Sisyphus pointed out, your flaw is that you're not comparing apples to apples. You need to compare the lost innings and runs allowed by Snell and Gorzo to the people who actually had to make up those innings. Guys like Capps, Marte, Yates, and Grabow are off the list. They'll get their innings regardless of how long the starters last. We need to focus on the long relievers
and starters (remember, Gorzo isn't even on the team anymore). Herrera, JVB, and Osoria top my list. Combined they've topped 100 innings of mopup/spot starting.
So lets move onto the math.
Snell averaged 6.5 IP per start last year (208/32). This year he is averaging 5.18 (114/22). So he's giving up 1.32 innings per start to one of my triumverate.
Without going through all the math again, Gorzo was giving up 1.12 innings. But here is where it gets tricky, the 1.12 innings assumes Gorzo has made all of his starts, he hasn't. By my estimate, he's missed five starts in AAA. So we'll need to factor in these innings.
Assuming 22 starts for Snell alone, we are left with 29 (1.32*22) innings left to a JVB, Osoria, or Herrera. Gorzo is a bit trickier, if he started 22 games, which we all know he didn't, he would be surrendering 24.64 innings (1.12*22). However we also need to add to this the innings lost by not starting at all. I get roughly 25 (5 games * 5 innings).
So by my calculations, Snell and Gorzo have given up 79 innings to the likes of Herrera, JVB, and Osoria. These three goofballs have a combined era of 7.73. That is 1.4 runs per game higher than Snell's and Gorzo's combined ERA.
Soooooo, 79 * 1.4 = 110 "extra" runs surrendered. Plugging this into the pythagorean the Pirates are projected to be 60-54.
Now you may call that not really in the hunt, but I can guarantee you that if the Pirates were 6 games over .500 and 3.5 out in the wildcard race, people would be excited. I'd also go as far to say that Bay and Nady are probably still on the team.
Have fun checking my math.