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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:05 pm 
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b] He's still definitely a star, but he and Bay are almost interchangeable as hitters.[/b]

I agree with most things you say, but I disagree here...

While there overall stats this year look similar...

Manny- .299BA, .926OPS, 20HR, and 60RBI
Bay-.291BA, .894OPS, 22HR, 64RBI

You need to look at their performances against lefties...

Manny- .274BA, .737OPS, 1HR, 8RBI

Bay-.190BA, .679OPS, 2HR, 8RBI

That's a big difference in BA and OPS agiainst lefties. Bay's going to see a healthy dose of his former teammate Marte when playing against the Yanks, along with other tough lefties.

I loved Jason Bay on the Buccos, and he's easily a top 10-15 offensive player, but Manny still has the more balanced offensive game.


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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 1:13 am 
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It would have been interesting to read Bob's angle on this trade, but I guess he has "done a Judge" as threatened.

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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 1:28 am 
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PBB wrote:
b] He's still definitely a star, but he and Bay are almost interchangeable as hitters.[/b]

I agree with most things you say, but I disagree here...

While there overall stats this year look similar...

Manny- .299BA, .926OPS, 20HR, and 60RBI
Bay-.291BA, .894OPS, 22HR, 64RBI

You need to look at their performances against lefties...

Manny- .274BA, .737OPS, 1HR, 8RBI

Bay-.190BA, .679OPS, 2HR, 8RBI

That's a big difference in BA and OPS agiainst lefties. Bay's going to see a healthy dose of his former teammate Marte when playing against the Yanks, along with other tough lefties.

I loved Jason Bay on the Buccos, and he's easily a top 10-15 offensive player, but Manny still has the more balanced offensive game.

That doesn't make much sense. Manny is a bit better against lefties this year, sure, but that is only in 83 plate appearances for Manny and 84 for Bay. That's only one fifth of their plate appearances, and the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. Either or both of them could post an OPS of .650 against lefties for the rest of the season, or one of 1.000. Bay historically hits lefties better than righties. Nobody is going to be bringing in a lefty to face him.

Now look at the ballparks. Bay is going from a pitchers park that is particularly tough on righties to a fine offensive park that loves righties. Manny is leaving one of baseball's best hitting parks behind to play in one of the toughest hitting parks in baseball. My guess is that Bay puts up a better OPS for the rest of the year than Ramirez does, and they get him for next year as well. If I'm the Dodgers, I'd give up a bit more and get Bay instead of Manny.

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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 1:38 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
Now look at the ballparks. Bay is going from a pitchers park that is particularly tough on righties to a fine offensive park that loves righties. Manny is leaving one of baseball's best hitting parks behind to play in one of the toughest hitting parks in baseball. My guess is that Bay puts up a better OPS for the rest of the year than Ramirez does, and they get him for next year as well. If I'm the Dodgers, I'd give up a bit more and get Bay instead of Manny.


The Dodgers came out on the short end of this deal. They gave up one of their top prospects, and one of the better prospects in baseball, in Laroche, and added a power arm in the process. They get Manny for a couple months.

And his hitting will decline in Dodger Stadium, no doubt about that. The foul territory has to be twice as much in Dodger Stadium as it is in Fenway. Also, I am going to bust a gut laughing when I watch Manny try to play defense in the big LF in Dodger stadium.

I know that the idiots at ESPN would extol Manny's defense in Fenway, while ignoring the fact that the LF fence was so close he had to cover a puny area. Now, he has to cover a lot of freaking ground. He will embarrass himself on defense.


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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 1:47 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Now look at the ballparks. Bay is going from a pitchers park that is particularly tough on righties to a fine offensive park that loves righties. Manny is leaving one of baseball's best hitting parks behind to play in one of the toughest hitting parks in baseball. My guess is that Bay puts up a better OPS for the rest of the year than Ramirez does, and they get him for next year as well. If I'm the Dodgers, I'd give up a bit more and get Bay instead of Manny.


The Dodgers came out on the short end of this deal. They gave up one of their top prospects, and one of the better prospects in baseball, in Laroche, and added a power arm in the process. They get Manny for a couple months.

And his hitting will decline in Dodger Stadium, no doubt about that. The foul territory has to be twice as much in Dodger Stadium as it is in Fenway. Also, I am going to bust a gut laughing when I watch Manny try to play defense in the big LF in Dodger stadium.

I know that the idiots at ESPN would extol Manny's defense in Fenway, while ignoring the fact that the LF fence was so close he had to cover a puny area. Now, he has to cover a lot of freaking ground. He will embarrass himself on defense.

Manny is not noted for his speed afoot or his hustle, that's for sure.

I just can't understand the Dodgers disdain for LaRoche. I can see why they wouldn't want to finish the season with DeWitt at third. He's in over his head, and I don't think he's much of a prospect anyway. LaRoche should have been in the lineup every day as soon as he got healthy. Then they would have had a better feel for whether they needed a Casey Blake by the time the trade deadline came around.

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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 10:38 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
PBB wrote:
b] He's still definitely a star, but he and Bay are almost interchangeable as hitters.[/b]

I agree with most things you say, but I disagree here...

While there overall stats this year look similar...

Manny- .299BA, .926OPS, 20HR, and 60RBI
Bay-.291BA, .894OPS, 22HR, 64RBI

You need to look at their performances against lefties...

Manny- .274BA, .737OPS, 1HR, 8RBI

Bay-.190BA, .679OPS, 2HR, 8RBI

That's a big difference in BA and OPS agiainst lefties. Bay's going to see a healthy dose of his former teammate Marte when playing against the Yanks, along with other tough lefties.

I loved Jason Bay on the Buccos, and he's easily a top 10-15 offensive player, but Manny still has the more balanced offensive game.

That doesn't make much sense. Manny is a bit better against lefties this year, sure, but that is only in 83 plate appearances for Manny and 84 for Bay. That's only one fifth of their plate appearances, and the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. Either or both of them could post an OPS of .650 against lefties for the rest of the season, or one of 1.000. Bay historically hits lefties better than righties. Nobody is going to be bringing in a lefty to face him.

Now look at the ballparks. Bay is going from a pitchers park that is particularly tough on righties to a fine offensive park that loves righties. Manny is leaving one of baseball's best hitting parks behind to play in one of the toughest hitting parks in baseball. My guess is that Bay puts up a better OPS for the rest of the year than Ramirez does, and they get him for next year as well. If I'm the Dodgers, I'd give up a bit more and get Bay instead of Manny.


Manny is batting something like .320 with runners in scoring position, Bay is batting .216. Manny's batting 20 points higher this year. In the last three years, Manny has OPS of 1.058, .881, and .927. Bay's are .894, .745, and .926. Bay batted .247 last year; Manny's lowest average in any season when he's had 300+ ABs is .292. I realize parks have something to do with this, so I took a look at Baseball Reference's park adjusted OPS numbers. Bay's are 138, 93, and 135 in the last three seasons (league average is centered at 100); Manny's are 165(!), 126, and 140. These numbers compare a player's park adjusted OPS to the rest of the league in which the players plays. Manny is putting up superior numbers as compared to the rest of the AL, which is a superior league.

It's a good deal in the long term IF the Sox can land a premier SS next year. In the short term, this is 75 cents on the dollar for the Sox.


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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 11:58 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
PBB wrote:
b] He's still definitely a star, but he and Bay are almost interchangeable as hitters.[/b]

I agree with most things you say, but I disagree here...

While there overall stats this year look similar...

Manny- .299BA, .926OPS, 20HR, and 60RBI
Bay-.291BA, .894OPS, 22HR, 64RBI

You need to look at their performances against lefties...

Manny- .274BA, .737OPS, 1HR, 8RBI

Bay-.190BA, .679OPS, 2HR, 8RBI

That's a big difference in BA and OPS agiainst lefties. Bay's going to see a healthy dose of his former teammate Marte when playing against the Yanks, along with other tough lefties.

I loved Jason Bay on the Buccos, and he's easily a top 10-15 offensive player, but Manny still has the more balanced offensive game.

That doesn't make much sense. Manny is a bit better against lefties this year, sure, but that is only in 83 plate appearances for Manny and 84 for Bay. That's only one fifth of their plate appearances, and the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. Either or both of them could post an OPS of .650 against lefties for the rest of the season, or one of 1.000. Bay historically hits lefties better than righties. Nobody is going to be bringing in a lefty to face him.

Now look at the ballparks. Bay is going from a pitchers park that is particularly tough on righties to a fine offensive park that loves righties. Manny is leaving one of baseball's best hitting parks behind to play in one of the toughest hitting parks in baseball. My guess is that Bay puts up a better OPS for the rest of the year than Ramirez does, and they get him for next year as well. If I'm the Dodgers, I'd give up a bit more and get Bay instead of Manny.


Manny is batting something like .320 with runners in scoring position, Bay is batting .216. Manny's batting 20 points higher this year. In the last three years, Manny has OPS of 1.058, .881, and .927. Bay's are .894, .745, and .926. Bay batted .247 last year; Manny's lowest average in any season when he's had 300+ ABs is .292. I realize parks have something to do with this, so I took a look at Baseball Reference's park adjusted OPS numbers. Bay's are 138, 93, and 135 in the last three seasons (league average is centered at 100); Manny's are 165(!), 126, and 140. These numbers compare a player's park adjusted OPS to the rest of the league in which the players plays. Manny is putting up superior numbers as compared to the rest of the AL, which is a superior league.

It's a good deal in the long term IF the Sox can land a premier SS next year. In the short term, this is 75 cents on the dollar for the Sox.

Just to save you some keystrokes in the future, when you and I are discussing hitters there is no point in mentioning batting average, not even with runners in scoring position. Stick with OPS and you have a much stronger argument.

It doesn't matter what Bay and Manny did over the last three years. What matters is what Manny will do for the next two months and what Bay will do for the next two months plus next year. The Red Sox did much better in this deal than the Dodgers. They gave up less in prospects and they got at least as much back.

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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:18 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
I just can't understand the Dodgers disdain for LaRoche. I can see why they wouldn't want to finish the season with DeWitt at third. He's in over his head, and I don't think he's much of a prospect anyway. LaRoche should have been in the lineup every day as soon as he got healthy. Then they would have had a better feel for whether they needed a Casey Blake by the time the trade deadline came around.


Your thinking is shared by a ton of Dodger fans, who wonder why the hell Torre and Colletti have such a man-crush on Dewitt. Dewitt is a serviceable player, but he is essentially a left-handed Jose Bautista - 15 HR's, 60 RBI's, low average, mediocre OBP, decent defense.

Meanwhile, a guy who could hit 30 HR's and draw 100 walks, while playing pretty darn good D, is not given a shot. Oh, sure, he was given a shot in spring this year, after playing through his shoulder problems and surgery in 2007 to address a labrum injury, but that consisted of about 8 starts and 60 innings. He was never put on the field for 20 straight starts and given a chance to perform.

Meanwhile, Blake Dewitt's OPS was .472 in June and .552 in July. His OPS since the all-star game is a stellar .414. There is a reasonable chance that Laroche could post a higher OBP than that in a full season - I am not kidding.


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 Post subject: Re: PG says Bay to Boston for Moss, Hansen, Laroche, Morris
PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:42 am 
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There's really no other way to determine what a player will do in the future as what he has done in the recent past, and the last three years is about the minimum significant sample size I figure counts as "recent."

I agree that OPS is as good an indicator of performance as there is, but batting average is appropriate to look at in some scenarios. Bay's average with RiSP is awful in a statistically significant way this year. And if Manny and Bay's BAs were within 5 points of each other, I'd discount that as meaningless. However, 20 points is a big enough difference that you can make some definitive conclusions about performance from BA.

There's really not one shred of evidence that you can produce, either statistical or anecdotal, that shows Bay is even close to Manny. This season is the only one in which Bay has been close, and 1. Manny's still been better in a tougher league, and 2. three-quarters of a season is not nearly proof enough to contradict the past couple seasons. Seriously, I don't think Manny could hit lower than .250 if he tried, like Bay did last year.

One more thing: any discussion concerning winner/losers in the Bay trade is absolutely meaningless without a temporal context. In the short term, the Dodgers were the big winners and the Sox were the big losers. In the medium term (next year) the Sox were the big winners if they can fill their glaring hole at SS. In the long term, the Bucs were big winners.


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