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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 11:43 am 
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Ryann wrote:
Baseball needs to have a limit on how much a team can and cannot spend similiar to hockey. Its just out of hand 200milion payrolls to 30 million payrolls.

There's no way the player's association would agree to such a proposal without teams giving up their exclusive rights to a player's first 6 years in the majors. Further, payroll caps have done little to encourage spending from low-budget teams or create competitive balance. I don't see how instituting a NHL-like payroll cap would help a team like the Pirates, especially when the NHL sees mostly the same teams in the playoffs each year.

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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 1:00 pm 
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My thoughts exactly Bucfan. I'm not upset the Pirates traded Nady, but he's certain a good player who isn't just some guy having a fluke of a year.


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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 3:25 pm 
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Zane41 wrote:
My thoughts exactly Bucfan. I'm not upset the Pirates traded Nady, but he's certain a good player who isn't just some guy having a fluke of a year.


It will be very interesting to see where Nady ends up when all is said and done. Not just this year either, I'm talking career. There seems to be a lot of interest in him this year from both sabremetricists and traditionalists alike.

The question, is this a fluke year or has Nady somehow managed to put it all together?

A few believe that it's flukey, a few believe that it's not. Most seem to think that it's somewhere in between. I tend to agree with most. However, if forced to choose, would lean towards flukey.

I was perusing his stats over at fangraphs and noticed a peculiar, albeit rather obscure statistic that I thought interesting. It involves plate discipline. Bucfan has mentioned discipline a few times in presenting his thoughts on Nady. I'd like to inject "O-Contact %" into mine.

O-Contact % (henceforth OC%) : The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.

Nady's career OC% is 56%, this year it's a significantly higher 63%.

O-Swing%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.

Nady's career OS% is 29%, this year it's slightly higher at 30%.

So Nady isn't swinging at more pitches outside of the strikezone, he's just making more contact when he does. We've seen him play this year and we know he's not hacking either. On the other hand, I'm not sure I'd say that increasing ones productivity by going outside of the strike zone is terribly smart either. Going outside of the strike zone usually is a recipe for failure. Unless of course your last name is Clemente. And Nady has a well documented history of bad things happening when swinging at bad pitches.

Given Nady's history and age, I doubt that he has all of a sudden become a much better hitter. Especially given that he has not admitted to any sweeping changes to preparation or practice. And while I'll admit that it isn't all luck, I can't help but think that he is an extreme beneficiary of hitting them where they ain't more times than can be reasonably expected.

When I started typing this I thought my conclusion would eventually write itself. It hasn't although I'm more of the opinion that Nady will not continue on at a 330/390/560 clip. At best I'd guess 300/350/500, not too shabby, but certainly not awe inspiring.

NH made the right move.

Oh, I came across this article from Peter Bendix over at beyondtheboxscore.com. It was similar to where I was heading, but with more thought put into it :) . And he also touches on some things that I didn't, such as walks, ks, line drives, ground outs etc.........

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/7/28/580702/x-marks-the-spot-evaluatin


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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 5:46 pm 
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I would be a little careful with a stat like OC% and OS% (from me? surprising eh).

I think back to what Nady, and others say about Long and how his idea of discipline is to make the pitcher throw more to YOU than swing toward him. If you are somehow making the pitcher come tighter to you than he would like, if you are forcing him to nibble more than he'd like as opposed to say, walking the batter up the ladder, then you might have an explanation as to what is going on.

He is swinging at more pitches outside the K-zone, but they are much closer to the K-zone than the pitcher would like, and thus are more hittable. This is kinda what I envision that Manto and other talking about.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 5:53 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I would be a little careful with a stat like OC% and OS% (from me? surprising eh).

I think back to what Nady, and others say about Long and how his idea of discipline is to make the pitcher throw more to YOU than swing toward him. If you are somehow making the pitcher come tighter to you than he would like, if you are forcing him to nibble more than he'd like as opposed to say, walking the batter up the ladder, then you might have an explanation as to what is going on.

He is swinging at more pitches outside the K-zone, but they are much closer to the K-zone than the pitcher would like, and thus are more hittable. This is kinda what I envision that Manto and other talking about.

ZM


I'm shocked by this! :)

You may be right if you can prove that the pitches outside the zone are indeed closer to the plate tha normal, and that he has learned to be a more disciplined hitter. We've kind of come full circle now, is he new and improved, or just slightly improved with some luck sprinkled on top?


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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 5:59 pm 
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I go back to the overall jump in plate discipline on the team this year. That might be a clue.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 6:04 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
I would be a little careful with a stat like OC% and OS% (from me? surprising eh).

I think back to what Nady, and others say about Long and how his idea of discipline is to make the pitcher throw more to YOU than swing toward him. If you are somehow making the pitcher come tighter to you than he would like, if you are forcing him to nibble more than he'd like as opposed to say, walking the batter up the ladder, then you might have an explanation as to what is going on.

He is swinging at more pitches outside the K-zone, but they are much closer to the K-zone than the pitcher would like, and thus are more hittable. This is kinda what I envision that Manto and other talking about.

ZM


I'm shocked by this! :)

You may be right if you can prove that the pitches outside the zone are indeed closer to the plate tha normal, and that he has learned to be a more disciplined hitter. We've kind of come full circle now, is he new and improved, or just slightly improved with some luck sprinkled on top?


I remember one of the Spring Training games that was televised Nady was talking about his approach to spring and it was to be better selective and some of his atbats he went up just to take everything unless it was down the middle and beachball like...

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 Post subject: Re: It's amazing.....
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 6:48 pm 
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The thing with Nady that impresses me, and indicates that he is going to be a very good hitter for the next several years, is his ability to hit pitches on the outside corner.

How often do we hear hitting coaches preach about the ability to hit pitches "the other way"? Think about Nady hitting not one, but two home runs to right field against the Braves on opening day. He hit 6 or 7 home runs to right field this year, as well as numerous XBH into the gap in right-center.

That is a sign of a darn good hitter.


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