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 Post subject: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:15 pm 
... it revealed a lot about posters.

To my surprise, and to their credit, a lot of posters who normally defend the Pirates at all costs were criticizing the team. And as they should have been - if that misreported deal had actually been the case, then the team would deserve all kind of criticism. Now that the truth comes out, some are praising NH and I respect that. It was a quality deal.

It also revealed the true apologists. Those defending the fake deal look kind of silly and have their credibility injured, imho.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:15 pm 
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I don't get what you're saying, especially the part about defending the trade. I don't think (or at least, I didn't see it) anyone on here was saying we got a steal or anything. The "wait and see" approach is obviously much more reasonable than bashing NH in the case of a trade like this.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:20 pm 
tennis08tarheels wrote:
I don't get what you're saying, especially the part about defending the trade. I don't think (or at least, I didn't see it) anyone on here was saying we got a steal or anything. The "wait and see" approach is obviously much more reasonable than bashing NH in the case of a trade like this.


I wasn't talking about a trade "like this" -- trades like the one that actually happened are fine. I mean when everyone was operating under the assumption that the initial reports were, in fact, true. (We were all operating that way bc the media irresponsibly reported it as fact). Defending THAT move wasn't reasonable, in my opinion, because it was so plainly bad according to nearly everyone in the know.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:48 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
I wasn't talking about a trade "like this" -- trades like the one that actually happened are fine. I mean when everyone was operating under the assumption that the initial reports were, in fact, true. (We were all operating that way bc the media irresponsibly reported it as fact). Defending THAT move wasn't reasonable, in my opinion, because it was so plainly bad according to nearly everyone in the know.


The Kontos/Coke non-deal had me wondering ... I knew about Ohlendorf, having seen him pitch. I knew that Tabata was a high-risk, high-reward, high-ceiling guy. I knew zip about Kontos/Coke, but knew that McCutchen was a good pitcher with good performance in the upper minors because I clicked on his minor league link when I was following Andrew McCutchen.

I would look at AM's performance on MiLB.com. That site has a link where you put in the player's name and it calls up the stats. I put in "McCutchen," and two players came up. At one point last year, I looked at DM's performance and was impressed at how well he did when moved from A to AA. His ERA remained low and his K rate increased to almost 8 per 9 innings. I did a quick google search and read reports from Yankee fans who had seen him pitch. They reported that he threw 92-94 with superb control, and that he looked like a major league starter.

So, when the revised trade was announced, I knew a little (very little) about Daniel McCutchen.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:51 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
... it revealed a lot about posters.

To my surprise, and to their credit, a lot of posters who normally defend the Pirates at all costs were criticizing the team. And as they should have been - if that misreported deal had actually been the case, then the team would deserve all kind of criticism. Now that the truth comes out, some are praising NH and I respect that. It was a quality deal.

It also revealed the true apologists. Those defending the fake deal look kind of silly and have their credibility injured, imho.

I preferred the original deal. I think that Kontos has more upside than any of the pitchers we ended up with. What does that say?

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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:55 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
tennis08tarheels wrote:
I don't get what you're saying, especially the part about defending the trade. I don't think (or at least, I didn't see it) anyone on here was saying we got a steal or anything. The "wait and see" approach is obviously much more reasonable than bashing NH in the case of a trade like this.


I wasn't talking about a trade "like this" -- trades like the one that actually happened are fine. I mean when everyone was operating under the assumption that the initial reports were, in fact, true. (We were all operating that way bc the media irresponsibly reported it as fact). Defending THAT move wasn't reasonable, in my opinion, because it was so plainly bad according to nearly everyone in the know.

1) We weren't all operating that way. Some of us were being criticized for saying that the return on the trade was still in the rumor stage.

2) Who is "everyone in the know"? The same schmuck's who reported the wrong trade?

3) If I took the yearly stats for the two guys that we didn't get and scrambled them up with those of the two guys we ended up with you probably would have a tough time associating a third of them with the correct names.

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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:03 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
I preferred the original deal. I think that Kontos has more upside than any of the pitchers we ended up with. What does that say?


Kontos had an injury last year (labrum?) that kept him out of action for several months. That should have made him questionable from the get-go.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:48 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I preferred the original deal. I think that Kontos has more upside than any of the pitchers we ended up with. What does that say?


Kontos had an injury last year (labrum?) that kept him out of action for several months. That should have made him questionable from the get-go.

I was unaware of that. Judging from his numbers this year, either he's over it or he has a high pain tolerance.

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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:30 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
I was unaware of that. Judging from his numbers this year, either he's over it or he has a high pain tolerance.


He did not pitch last year until June due to the injury. His injury history lowered him, in my estimation, since guys coming off an injury are much more of a risk.

Kontos has pretty good stuff - 92 mph, good 2-seam, real good slider. But that injury issue would worry me, given the Pirates' history.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:31 am 
Gosh. You're the first person I've heard that preferred the first trade. If GMs and baseball analysts - even Kevin Goldstein of the sacred Baseball Pospectus - were ALL down on that first trade and you weren't, I think I'll go ahead and trust their unanimous judgment.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:45 am 
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Never having seen them pitch or knowing much before the trade, and just analyzing the numbers and listening to people "in the know" I must say I also liked the first trade better too. I know what Huntington was doing. We need help and we need it fast. And these 3 pitchers are ready to help this season. Kontos and Coke were at least a year away. However, if we are planning for the future, which we should be, I kind of liked the upside of the two AA pitchers. In particular Kontos. They both had impressive strikeout to IP numbers. Now maybe that is the fantasy baseball player in me coming out, but I always look to that number first. Also, I really don't like Karstens. I think he will be a bust. Hope I'm wrong. I think regardless of which trade went down the main piece was Tabata, and the second main piece was Ohlenwhatshisname. Either way I'm fine with what was done. But if you held a gun to my head and made me answer I'd join Sisyphus in liking the first deal a little bit better.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:47 am 
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I don't pay enough attention to the other minor league players to actually make a judgement on either trade.

All I know is he sold high on Marte and X, and that he bought very low on Tabata as well as adding marginal pitching depth.

All said and done... has the makings to be a nice trade.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:51 am 
PirateParrot wrote:
Never having seen them pitch or knowing much before the trade, and just analyzing the numbers and listening to people "in the know" I must say I also liked the first trade better too. I know what Huntington was doing. We need help and we need it fast. And these 3 pitchers are ready to help this season. Kontos and Coke were at least a year away. However, if we are planning for the future, which we should be, I kind of liked the upside of the two AA pitchers. In particular Kontos. They both had impressive strikeout to IP numbers. Now maybe that is the fantasy baseball player in me coming out, but I always look to that number first. Also, I really don't like Karstens. I think he will be a bust. Hope I'm wrong. I think regardless of which trade went down the main piece was Tabata, and the second main piece was Ohlenwhatshisname. Either way I'm fine with what was done. But if you held a gun to my head and made me answer I'd join Sisyphus in liking the first deal a little bit better.


Fair enough PirateParrot ... I'm not being a smart@ss, just saying these are the first two of that opinion I've heard.

I didn't like the first trade better because BP's Goldstein a projected one of the Kontos' ceiling as the bullpen, and the Coke's ceiling of maybe not even making it to the majors. Other analysts had similar less-than-enthusiastic takes on those two. However, the two we got in their place are projected as being major league starters. I've never seen these guys pitch, either, so I'm trusting the take of Goldstein and others who DO know these guys.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:45 pm 
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I wasn't up or down on the first, because I don't know those pitchers. However, reading some stuff it struck me that the Pirates new staff, with their version of Diamond Vision and the BA guy on board, were looking at differant stuff than the so-called experts.

Sisy pointed to a couple like K to BB. Both had some power.

My point was that this was the same types of decisions that the early Indians staff made in trading/drafting players, i.e., they went against the so-called experts and used their own metrics. And, it proved wildly successful.

The new Pirates regime looks like they are doing the same thing, based on the types of information they are looking for.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:56 pm 
I have no problem going against experts if it works. I think this second (real version) of the trade has a much greater chance of working.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:58 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Sisy pointed to a couple like K to BB. Both had some power.


All three pitchers have at least 3:1 K/BB ratios in the minors. Don't know how that will translate to the bigs, but NH and crew are definitely using this metric.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 1:22 pm 
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I just think that the Pirates are looking at some, not differant, but extra metrics when evaluating a player for trade. This would certainly make for some head twisting when one selects or trades for someone.

Its OK for the Indians because Antonetti and Shapiro et al, make it work. In the hands of past Pirates management, it simply looks like stupidity. It will look like the Indians for hte new management, when the propects perform like the Indian's did. But in the meantime, you like the early Tribe, are gonna get smashed in public court.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 1:50 pm 
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I don't know about all this metric crap...I leave that to the Canadians. But it does appear NH and company covet power arms, and I applaud that. That's why I think the change in players with the trade was for another reason. Karsten, and by all accounts McCutchen are certainly not what you would call power arms and Kontos apparently was. I think they went for Karsten and McCutchen because they need pitchers that can help the major league team IMMEDIATELY. And thanks to Littlefield and company who can blame NH for going in that direction. Again, Tabata and Ohlendorf will be what potentially takes this from a good trade to a great trade.


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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 2:01 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
I don't know about all this metric crap...I leave that to the Canadians. But it does appear NH and company covet power arms, and I applaud that. That's why I think the change in players with the trade was for another reason.

It was: Kontos has a labrum tear. That would scare me away too.

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 Post subject: Re: One good thing that came out of the "fake" trade ...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:54 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I was unaware of that. Judging from his numbers this year, either he's over it or he has a high pain tolerance.


He did not pitch last year until June due to the injury. His injury history lowered him, in my estimation, since guys coming off an injury are much more of a risk.

Kontos has pretty good stuff - 92 mph, good 2-seam, real good slider. But that injury issue would worry me, given the Pirates' history.

You sure know the Yankees system.

Hey, you wouldn't be a closet Yankee fan who just slums here to see how the other half lives, would you?

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