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 Post subject: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:46 am 
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...may never be higher than it is right now. His July splits make him a serious contender for NL player of the month. He certainly deserves it — for the sheer amount of crap he takes here and elsewhere for being a slow starter.

Code:
SPLIT   G   AB   R   H   2B   3B   HR   RBI   BB   K   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SL
July   21   74   16   29   7   2   7   17   12   15   0   0   .392   .477   .824


His flaws as a player are well-documented, but he could be extremely valuable to a team making a stretch run. The Angels, perhaps?

What kind of return do you think he could net?

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:43 pm 
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Depends, of course, on what the Pirates would be looking for: MLB-ready talent or young prospects like Tabata.

Since we're dealing in hypotheticals and you brought up the Angels, my reading indicates that the following are their top prospects (someone please correct me if you have better information):

Brandon Wood, 3B/SS, at AAA Salt Lake City. He's 23, has a .285 BA, 20 home runs, a .354 OBP, and a .917 OPS. 75 K's and 27 walks in 284 at-bats so far. Blocked at the moment by Chone Figgins, Mecier Izturris, and Erick Aybar.

Nick Adenhart, RHP, also at Salt Lake City. Apparently it's taking him some time to adjust to the talent level there since he's carrying a 6.19 ERA and has given up 123 hits in 100 IP. But he's still only 21. He has K'd 75 hitters and walked 49. Tougher on left-handed hitters than on righties. Has had Tommy John surgery.

Sean O'Sullivan, RHP, 12-4, at High-A Rancho Cucamonga. 4.98 ERA, has given up 113 hits in 106-2/3 IP, fanned 79, and walked 35. He's 20 years old.

Jordan Walden, RHP, also only 20 and already earned a promotion from low-A Cedar Rapids to Rancho Cucamonga. He has a combined 2.32 ERA, has given up 90 hits in 116-1/3 IP, with 98 K's and 39 walks.

Hank Conger, C, aged 20. Has "light tower power" but also a potential weight problem that ultimately may result in a position switch to 1B. .289 average, 7 homers, .325 OBP, .849 OPS at Rancho Cucamonga.

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:22 pm 
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I doubt LaRoche has much trade value come winter, he might interest a team looking for a lefty bat to platoon at first base or DH. You can't ignore his history of slow starts if you're trying to make the playoffs. The Pirates will be lucky to get a second tier prospect out of him.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:30 am 
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LaRoche deserves to be player of the month because of the amount of crap he took for playing poorly in the first half? Very curious logic there.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:07 pm 
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I agree Ralph, but I also think his trade value is highest for a team wanting a rental type player now, to help with play-off time. I don't think he's going anywhere.

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:10 pm 
Substitute2 wrote:
I agree Ralph, but I also think his trade value is highest for a team wanting a rental type player now, to help with play-off time. I don't think he's going anywhere.


I don't think you'd get a ton either, but you will get the most you'll ever get for him right now. If you want a hot bat and good glove for down the stretch, he's your man.

If you trade him int he offseason, I think you get almost nothing. Other teams know he doesn't hit til June and most teams aren't willing to accept complete failure at a position for a third of a season.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:15 pm 
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I'm on record from May as saying that Laroche should be shopped at the deadline after he gets hot. Right now, opposing GMs would be thinking, "Hmm, this guy can really help me get over the hump." In January, they'll be thinking, "This guy will suck for the first two months of the season, why would I want him?" I would at least be dangling him out there to see what people offer up.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:20 pm 
burghermeister wrote:
I'm on record from May as saying that Laroche should be shopped at the deadline after he gets hot. Right now, opposing GMs would be thinking, "Hmm, this guy can really help me get over the hump." In January, they'll be thinking, "This guy will suck for the first two months of the season, why would I want him?" I would at least be dangling him out there to see what people offer up.


Exactly, Burghmeister. I share your thoughts exactly. Get SOMETHING for him while he has SOME value.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:36 pm 
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The question that the Pirates have is, "Can Laroche avoid hitting .140 in April?" If he hits .250 in April and .275 in May, with even average power and RBI production for a first baseman, then his second half hitting makes him an above average run producer and player in the Pirates' analysis.

If the Pirates believe that he is above average, then they will not trade him for a mediocre prospect. That is my take on the situation - though I continue to believe that Laroche's horrendous hitting in April and May greatly reduce his value to the Pirates. If the dude could avoid his Mario Mendoza imitation, he would be a solid player, but he has yet to hit a lick in the first 2 months.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:02 pm 
Bucfan wrote:
The question that the Pirates have is, "Can Laroche avoid hitting .140 in April?" If he hits .250 in April and .275 in May, with even average power and RBI production for a first baseman, then his second half hitting makes him an above average run producer and player in the Pirates' analysis.

If the Pirates believe that he is above average, then they will not trade him for a mediocre prospect. That is my take on the situation - though I continue to believe that Laroche's horrendous hitting in April and May greatly reduce his value to the Pirates. If the dude could avoid his Mario Mendoza imitation, he would be a solid player, but he has yet to hit a lick in the first 2 months.


I don't think the upside is worth the risk, imho. If the upside were A-Rod type numbers then I would agree with you. My hunch is that the struggles are in his head, too, so I really think they'll continue each April. Just my opinion.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:35 pm 
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He is hurt right now too. Bad back.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:15 am 
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Ralphie wrote:
LaRoche deserves to be player of the month because of the amount of crap he took for playing poorly in the first half? Very curious logic there.

No, just a poorly/half-assed articulated point on my part. Obviously, he deserves POM honors solely for his July numbers. But in general, he deserves more credit, here and elsewhere, when his bat finally comes around — but doesn't often get it, perhaps because people balance the July-August version of LaRoche with the April-May version.

Adam is what he is — and because of that, he has more trade value in July than in December. Just not sure what his trade value, even at peak, is.

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I don't think the upside is worth the risk, imho. If the upside were A-Rod type numbers then I would agree with you.

Alex Rodiguez, April, 2007 (when, if you recall, everyone was crapping the bed about him being on way to a historic offensive season): .355 .415 .882 14HR OPS 1.297
Adam LaRoche, July 2008: .390 .472 .805 7HR OPS 1.277

I'd say LaRoche's July was pretty damn close to ARod territory.

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche's value
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:39 am 
LtCol Kojak Slaphead wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
LaRoche deserves to be player of the month because of the amount of crap he took for playing poorly in the first half? Very curious logic there.

No, just a poorly/half-assed articulated point on my part. Obviously, he deserves POM honors solely for his July numbers. But in general, he deserves more credit, here and elsewhere, when his bat finally comes around — but doesn't often get it, perhaps because people balance the July-August version of LaRoche with the April-May version.

Adam is what he is — and because of that, he has more trade value in July than in December. Just not sure what his trade value, even at peak, is.

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I don't think the upside is worth the risk, imho. If the upside were A-Rod type numbers then I would agree with you.

Alex Rodiguez, April, 2007 (when, if you recall, everyone was crapping the bed about him being on way to a historic offensive season): .355 .415 .882 14HR OPS 1.297
Adam LaRoche, July 2008: .390 .472 .805 7HR OPS 1.277

I'd say LaRoche's July was pretty damn close to ARod territory.


Good point. Still, when you can pretty much guarantee that a player won't hit in April and May, I don't think he deserves to start those months. Hurts your team too much. I was hoping they'd trade him, but now that's not going to happen.


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