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 Post subject: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:34 am 
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Mr. Crawdad,

What is the scoop on Hague? Seems that his fielding might be suspect, at least for a 3B but he seems to be raking it.

Is this a mirage or someone to keep an eye on for the future? If Pedro Alvarez is signed, his future at 3B is likely bleak...that said would a switch to 1B or RF be in order?

Stats - Spikes and Crawdads

As always, thank you for your regular reports!

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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:05 pm 
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Obviously not Mr. Crawdad here, but from what I've read and heard, Alvarez's future seems to be at 1b anyway.

There in lies the question for the Buccos. Will Neil Walker ever become a serviceable pro, him becoming an above average pro has passed him by, will Hague be a legit 3b candidate, will we draft one in a future draft, will we find a gem in the DR, or will be we need to go outside the org.?

The previous regime really did leave the cupboard bare. They attempted to build this team thru pitching, which failed obviously, but what hasn't been focused on enough is that by drafting poor pitchers they made two mistakes. They (1) took the wrong pitcher, and (2) they ignored position players.

By completely selling out for one strategy, i.e. pitching, you are guaranteed to have at least one hole. By using a parallel draft strategy, or at the most a slight lean, you hedge your bets.


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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:28 pm 
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Way too early to make that kind of statement about Walker. He's barely 21 and drafted out of HS.

Bautista is becoming a very servicable 3b.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:10 pm 
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honestly the kid can hit, but he doesn't have a position...they've tried him at 3B and 1B and his hands are stone-like...reminds me of the Keel kid who was here last year and now is a backup at Lynchburg and the ball doesn't jump off his bat as it did with Corley(when he made contact) and Romak who I think is a better hitter than even Walker...

THese guys are all righthanded and we haven't seen a left handed power hitter come through here since Walter Young...

Obviously kids change and develop or not...but I haven't seen any thing that would 'wow' you about any of these hitters...

Mercer is struggling adjusting to the wood and McClune hasn't been consistent either....it hasn't been a good year really all the way around...

on the pitching front...Mike Feliz, former starter, turned reliever, has been put back in the rotation...without glancing at the numbers, he's been awfully wild...and can't seem to put two or three solid innings together...makes you wonder how he'll fare once he goes through the order once....but i guess it's time to fish or cut bait...

Welker gave them a solid outing last night and looked more confident in his stuff...


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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:18 pm 
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I don't want to get into stats analysis, but I guess I will...lol... looking at Baseball Prospectus take on Neil Walker, they aren't that high on him.

In his prime, he is projected to be a mid-to-high teens HR hitter, a high 60s RBI guy, a guy that ks in the 90s and only walks in the 40s. Basically he becomes Jose Bautista with a worse glove. If you're a catcher and that is your offensive output, then you can pass as a legit player, not if you're a third baseman.

Here's what BP had to say before the 2008 season...

The Joe Mauer trajectory of local catcher making good isn`t going as planned so far for Neil Walker. Injuries (wrist surgery), illness (a viral infection), and uninspired production have the Pirates talking about moving him to third base. Ironically that will make him even less of a prospect because, as is often the case, a strong bat for a catcher is a weak bat elsewhere around the diamond. Walker didn`t hit well in the Arizona Fall League (.291/.306/.397), which is like being on the faculty at Bordello University and not being able to score with a co-ed.

Now lets look at what he's done this year compared to his BP projections...

Actual----Projection
.233--AVG---.266
.217--OBP---.322
.430--SLG---.425

Lets also not forget that he is second in the International league in errors with 14.

Other than slugging, he's well below what should be expected from a player at Walker's development. BP also took into account that he has gone thru injuries.


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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:40 pm 
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Thanks everyone!

Seems that small sample size could be at play with Hague...

Always on the lookout for diamonds in the rough to get excited about...

Always let down though...Eldred and Redmond were my last ones and we know how that turned out!

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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 5:57 pm 
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PBB wrote:
Actual----Projection
.233--AVG---.266
.217--OBP---.322
.430--SLG---.425



I think you made a bad key stroke...his OBP is .267 not .217...

just trying to help...

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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:17 pm 
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I did hit the wrong key, thanks. That would be a first, a player with a lower OBP than a BA...lol.


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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 7:07 pm 
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Actually, it isn't impossible for a lower OBP than BA. For a full time player it is highly unlikely, but for pitchers' batting stats, it has happened before. A sacrifice fly counts against OBP, but not BA. So, if a player has more Sac Flies than Walks, they will end up with a lower OBP than BA. The only real example I can give is Steve Carlton from 1974. His BA was .245 but his OBP was .238 (3 Sac Flies to 0 BB's). I think Fernando Valenzuela did it a season or two, but I am too lazy to keep looking it up....sorry.


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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:06 am 
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It seems that Hague got DK's attention...

From today's notebook
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08206/899114-63.stm
Quote:
Hague shines at Hickory

The Pirates assigned only one prospect to Class A Hickory shortly after the draft, ninth-round third baseman Matt Hague, and he has handled it exceedingly well: He is batting .333 with five home runs and 12 RBIs in 25 games.

Hague, 22, played at Oklahoma State University, as well as some summer ball with wooden bats, so management projected the adjustment would be easier.

But this easy?

"Matt's track record made us feel comfortable pushing him to Hickory, and he has not disappointed," director of player development Kyle Stark said. "Our scouts did a great job of identifying that, and Matt has done a great job."

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 Post subject: Re: Matthew Hague - For Real?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:12 pm 
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PBB wrote:
I don't want to get into stats analysis, but I guess I will...lol... looking at Baseball Prospectus take on Neil Walker, they aren't that high on him.

In his prime, he is projected to be a mid-to-high teens HR hitter, a high 60s RBI guy, a guy that ks in the 90s and only walks in the 40s. Basically he becomes Jose Bautista with a worse glove. If you're a catcher and that is your offensive output, then you can pass as a legit player, not if you're a third baseman.

Here's what BP had to say before the 2008 season...

The Joe Mauer trajectory of local catcher making good isn`t going as planned so far for Neil Walker. Injuries (wrist surgery), illness (a viral infection), and uninspired production have the Pirates talking about moving him to third base. Ironically that will make him even less of a prospect because, as is often the case, a strong bat for a catcher is a weak bat elsewhere around the diamond. Walker didn`t hit well in the Arizona Fall League (.291/.306/.397), which is like being on the faculty at Bordello University and not being able to score with a co-ed.

Now lets look at what he's done this year compared to his BP projections...

Actual----Projection
.233--AVG---.266
.217--OBP---.322
.430--SLG---.425

Lets also not forget that he is second in the International league in errors with 14.

Other than slugging, he's well below what should be expected from a player at Walker's development. BP also took into account that he has gone thru injuries.

Those are all good points. Another good point is that he is 21 years old in AAA, so there is still a lot of time for him to improve.

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