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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 5:23 pm 
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Jack is an above average player who has played well recently, therefore he has significant trade value.

LaRoche is a below average player who has played very poorly recently, therefore he has little trade value.

If Kemp is deemed to be a good return for Wilson, I wouldn't let a surplus of outfielders stop me from making the trade. Bay and Nady will likely both be traded, which will take care of that problem.

I would, however, worry about the fact that we would not have a shortstop. We would have to get one somewhere, even if it's just a defense-only guy as a short term solution.

I would hate to have to watch Rivas or Bixler or even Gomez continue to butcher the position. That drags the whole defense down.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:01 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
The Pirates are in last place. They need to get as many good players at as many positions as possible.

As BBF said, you don't decline the opportunity to acquire a good player because you have "too much" talent at a position. You get the best players possible, and then maneuver from there.


Assuming you can. I just take what I read about this being a pretty thin trade market and go from there.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:52 pm 
Jeremy wrote:
Elmer wrote:
The Pirates are in last place. They need to get as many good players at as many positions as possible.

As BBF said, you don't decline the opportunity to acquire a good player because you have "too much" talent at a position. You get the best players possible, and then maneuver from there.


Assuming you can. I just take what I read about this being a pretty thin trade market and go from there.


Worst case scenario, you have one hell of a bat on your bench. There is no downside to acquiring good players.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:33 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
Jeremy wrote:
Elmer wrote:
The Pirates are in last place. They need to get as many good players at as many positions as possible.

As BBF said, you don't decline the opportunity to acquire a good player because you have "too much" talent at a position. You get the best players possible, and then maneuver from there.


Assuming you can. I just take what I read about this being a pretty thin trade market and go from there.


Worst case scenario, you have one hell of a bat on your bench. There is no downside to acquiring good players.


And you have a black hole at short. All I'm saying is that this seems to be one of those deals that gets flipped a few days later.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:55 pm 
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we need pitching guys...Oakland put Crosby on the DL and he's been slumping...trade Jack and Nady to the A's for Blanton or Hardin...

why not ask the dodgers for pitching?...I'd take Kershaw...then again we got to do something about the plethora of average at best lefthanders on this team!


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:09 am 
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mr. crawdad wrote:
we need pitching guys...Oakland put Crosby on the DL and he's been slumping...trade Jack and Nady to the A's for Blanton or Hardin...

why not ask the dodgers for pitching?...I'd take Kershaw...then again we got to do something about the plethora of average at best lefthanders on this team!


Definitely have to think they are going to ask for pitching when working out any trades. Unfortunately I don't see your two scenarios working. The Dodgers are not trading Kershaw, especially for anything we'd offer them. He didn't fair so well when he was called up, but remember he was coming from AA and I believe is only 20 years old. I'd say he is an untouchable in their system. As for the A's thing...please not Blanton. He is what we already have a lot of...average on a good day. Harden I would love but you'd have to be nuts to trade for him considering he gets injured about 3 times per year. He is a hard thrower(Cy Young potential when healthy). I just can't imagine the Pirates would take the risk. I have heard his name mentioned as possibly being available.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 2:18 am 
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Matt Kemp is a classic "high ceiling" player because of his physical tools. He is big, with huge power, yet runs well enough to play CF and steal 20 bases. He also a tremendous. arm - teams just do not run on him any more.

But . . . his knowledge of the strike zone is non-existent. Major league teams know this and throw fastballs just off the outside corner, breaking balls down and away, etc. Kemp keeps swinging. When a pitcher makes a mistake to Kemp, and his bat connects, he will drive the ball.

He is going to be prone to really bad slumps due to his problems recognizing the strike zone and his propensity for the K. I actually like Ethier better as a hitter. He looks like a 20 HR, 35 2B, .300 average, .375 OBP guy who will be a solid middle of the order hitter. Less "upside" potential than Kemp, but his bust potential is about 1/10th of that for Kemp.

JMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 3:03 am 
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Ethier's already 26, though. Kemp is 23. Ethier has had basically the same season three years in a row. He pretty much is what he is at this point. He's certainly better than the Jody Gerut-Ty Wigginton type of players Dave Littlefield would pursue, but he's the same kind of low-upside player.

Star-quality talent is what the Pirates need, and Kemp has it. You're right about him having a bigger chance of busting than Ethier, but I think that's a chance the Pirates need to take if they can. I think his problems with plate discipline may be real, but that you overstate them. He's had very high batting averages in both the minors and the majors - consistently, so not in a fluky way - and he has a career .300 BA in the majors, with a .342 OBP. While that's certainly an area he could improve, it's not like some huge Francoeur red flag.

In other words, I don't think the plate discipline issue is as likely to be his undoing as you seem to think. It's okay, and he still posts those very high batting averages. When a hitter has a well-rounded set of other skills, the walks will often come as he ages - think Sammy Sosa, or maybe Chili Davis (Kemp's PECOTA comparables list contains both those players).

I think Kemp's upside is, say, a couple notches worse than Vlad Guerrero. I mean, I think he could be really, really, really good. I'm not saying he'll reach his full potential, but I do think you can't let Andre Ethier get in the way of a player like that.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:41 am 
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Look, Jack is my favorite player on the team and I don't want to see him go, but, if he could bring talent in return then I could go for it. That said, I don't think we blow our wad so-to-speak to aquire free swinging Kemp. I have read on other boards that we should throw in Bay, throw in Nady... Why? The Dodgers are desperate for a SS and we hold the leverage. Jack Wilson is extremely valuable to this team as evident by his absence, plus, his salary is well within the range for quality shortstops. Nutting has already said that his salary is not an issue.

Sounds to me like Nutting and NH are agreeing with Elmer, BH, and others where they aren't interested in blowing up the team. Trading Jack would "blow" up the team, there is nobody to replace him, and it would give indication that the Pirates are giving up. I say, offer Jack Wilson to the Dodgers for Kemp, Hu, and McDonald and walk away. If the Dodgers are desperate enough, let their GM make the mistake. Sure, I would love to have Kemp but I don't want us throwing in Nady, Bay or Marte for him.

That is what I think the Pirates are doing, they are giving Jack the "vote of confidence," but if the Dodgers offer more than he is worth, NH will pull the trigger, and I would be fine with that. Sad, but I would understand.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:36 pm 
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If trading Wilson is blowing up the team, what was the record before he returned to the line up and what is it with him in there. I don't know but my guess is that we have just as high a winning % with as without him.

We need to keep the big picture in mind here. Are we being short sighted by worrying about this year's SS and forgetting that the goal is future growth. While we should not sacrifice this year's team, that's no.2 in the priority list of NH.

Keep your eye on the doughnut not the hole.

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2011 Will Be Our Year -- well make that 2012 (just saying) So it looks like 2013 now - how long must this go on!
THIS IS IT-- NO MORE STREAK!!! *** Finally*** Time to win it in 2014


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:00 pm 
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How about we ship Nady to Tampa for Niemann and Brignac, then we can ship Wilson and Grabow to the Dodgers for Kemp and McDonald? I doubt it would happen, but if it were the case I would be extremely happy with Niemann, Brignac, Kemp, and Mcdonald.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:24 pm 
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I looked it up 13---

WITHOUT Jack Flash we were 23-26.
wITH him 18-21

Hard to conclude that trading Wilson blows up the team.

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2011 Will Be Our Year -- well make that 2012 (just saying) So it looks like 2013 now - how long must this go on!
THIS IS IT-- NO MORE STREAK!!! *** Finally*** Time to win it in 2014


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:34 pm 
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Substitute,
Keeping Wilson is thinking towards the future, because its difficult to replace a SS of his caliber. Just look at the teams that are interested in Jack. We have nobody in the system to replace him for at least 3 to 4 years. Like I said, if a Wilson deal is lopsided in our favor then pull the trigger. Don't throw anybody in, especially guys like Grabow, Marte, Nady, and Bay. Each one of those guys are valuable on their own.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:42 pm 
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Here's a list I found of shortstops who will be free agents this offseason.

Orlando Cabrera (34)
David Eckstein (34)
Adam Everett (32)
Rafael Furcal (31)
Cristian Guzman (31)
Cesar Izturis (29)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Edgar Renteria (33) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Juan Uribe (30)
Omar Vizquel (42) - $5.2MM club option for '09 with a $0.3MM buyout

I'd like to think Pittsburgh could find someone in that list who will play in PNC for the price the club would be offering.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:49 pm 
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You assume we could get a FA from that bunch, don't forget that FA costs are usually outrageous, other teams will be looking for SS help, not to mention, which one of those guys want to come to Pittsburgh to play for a team mired in a 16 year slump? You'd probably have to overpay for that in itself. Wilson wants to be here and has a reasonable salary and is an above average player, unless we get blown away by a deal, leave it be. Losing a guy like Wilson for a "hopeful" and a "wannabe" and/or a "possibly," just doesn't get it.

Additionally his value goes beyond wins and losses, beyond plays in the field. His attitude, work ethic and energy makes up the type of players NH wants on this team.

All that said... If Dodgers offer Kemp for Jack, bye bye buddy.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:19 pm 
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i guess we'll just have to wait and see if a decent offer comes or not. Like you 13-- that should determine the future of Jack in Pittsburgh.

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2011 Will Be Our Year -- well make that 2012 (just saying) So it looks like 2013 now - how long must this go on!
THIS IS IT-- NO MORE STREAK!!! *** Finally*** Time to win it in 2014


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:54 pm 
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How about we ship all our bad players for everyone's good players.. all at once. Big package deal.

See, its easy to trade.

:D

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:02 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
How about we ship all our bad players for everyone's good players.. all at once. Big package deal.

See, its easy to trade.

:D

ZM


There ya' go ZM. What has NH been waiting for? He should have been doing that this offseason. That's how you rebuild AND compete at the same time. After all, other teams do it, right?

But you better hurry now. The dumb GM's are a fading breed, and most of those who are left don't have any good prospects left (see Sabean, Brian). Colletti might be our last hope.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:25 pm 
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BBF wrote:
There ya' go ZM. What has NH been waiting for? He should have been doing that this offseason. That's how you rebuild AND compete at the same time.


Nah, no pressure then. You have to get it done after the first overpriced whale gets moved for a pennant contender. You can't do this type of thing without an internet full of fantasy players and bloggers telling you how to do it!
8-)
ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Jack to be a Dodger if no C.C. deal?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:59 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Nah, no pressure then. You have to get it done after the first overpriced whale gets moved for a pennant contender. You can't do this type of thing without an internet full of fantasy players and bloggers telling you how to do it!
8-)
ZM


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