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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:24 pm 
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Willton wrote:
The Reds are almost certainly going to see some regression from their pitching staff. Dusty Baker worked Cueto and Bailey very hard last year, as they threw more innings and more pitches last year than they ever had in their entire respective careers. Bailey in particular threw 3334 pitches last season, which is 1,200 more than he had thrown in any of his previous years in the majors. And given the physical build of Cueto (5'10', 215 lb.), I don't think his arm can take much more of Dusty. Plus, I'm expecting Arroyo to regress due to age, and I'm also expecting the Chapman starting experiment to be a disaster.

The Brewers will likely still have a terrifying lineup. But their pitching is loaded with question marks. Michael Fiers looks like the real deal, but Gallardo's control is slipping, Marco Estrada was impressive but is still a converted reliever, and Greinke and Marcum are both gone. Tom Gorzelanny was signed to presumably take a rotation spot, but he is fragile (as we know) and his peripherals are unimpressive. And the pitchers from their farm system (Tyler Thornburg and Wily Peralta) show some promise but are likely to be inconsistent. And that's just their rotation; their bullpen is a disaster.

The Cubs have improved, but not enough to get them out of the basement. Adding Edwin Jackson is not going to catapult them into being an average team. They're two best hitters are still Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano's resurgeance in 2012 is not likely to continue into 2013, they no longer have Ryan Dempster, and their rotation still can't stay healthy, which means they are still relying on guys like Travis Wood and Justin Germano to eat innings.

The Cardinals are a legit contender and most likely to win the division. But that doesn't mean that the Pirates can't win a wild card spot, particularly when there are now two such spots available and given the uncertainty of the NL Central.

Picking winners in January is a crap shoot, but I sure hope your optimism pans out. I just don't see it. Again this is just "on paper" but I don't see how the Pirates can compete with the Reds, Cards, or even the Brewers. Cubs...maybe. As JC pointed out there are just too many question marks and not enough talent. Hopefully we have a bunch of guys step forward. If Snider, Alvarez, Marte, and JMac all reach their "potential" then you might have something. Let's hope that happens.


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:26 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Willton wrote:
The Reds are almost certainly going to see some regression from their pitching staff. Dusty Baker worked Cueto and Bailey very hard last year, as they threw more innings and more pitches last year than they ever had in their entire respective careers. Bailey in particular threw 3334 pitches last season, which is 1,200 more than he had thrown in any of his previous years in the majors. And given the physical build of Cueto (5'10', 215 lb.), I don't think his arm can take much more of Dusty. Plus, I'm expecting Arroyo to regress due to age, and I'm also expecting the Chapman starting experiment to be a disaster.

The Brewers will likely still have a terrifying lineup. But their pitching is loaded with question marks. Michael Fiers looks like the real deal, but Gallardo's control is slipping, Marco Estrada was impressive but is still a converted reliever, and Greinke and Marcum are both gone. Tom Gorzelanny was signed to presumably take a rotation spot, but he is fragile (as we know) and his peripherals are unimpressive. And the pitchers from their farm system (Tyler Thornburg and Wily Peralta) show some promise but are likely to be inconsistent. And that's just their rotation; their bullpen is a disaster.

The Cubs have improved, but not enough to get them out of the basement. Adding Edwin Jackson is not going to catapult them into being an average team. They're two best hitters are still Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano's resurgeance in 2012 is not likely to continue into 2013, they no longer have Ryan Dempster, and their rotation still can't stay healthy, which means they are still relying on guys like Travis Wood and Justin Germano to eat innings.

The Cardinals are a legit contender and most likely to win the division. But that doesn't mean that the Pirates can't win a wild card spot, particularly when there are now two such spots available and given the uncertainty of the NL Central.

Picking winners in January is a crap shoot, but I sure hope your optimism pans out. I just don't see it. Again this is just "on paper" but I don't see how the Pirates can compete with the Reds, Cards, or even the Brewers. Cubs...maybe. As JC pointed out there are just too many question marks and not enough talent. Hopefully we have a bunch of guys step forward. If Snider, Alvarez, Marte, and JMac all reach their "potential" then you might have something. Let's hope that happens.


Its pretty clear that if things don't go well in 2013 NH will be fired.

I think we are a 83-85 win team, good for 3rd in the NL central close to Cincy, behind St. Louis.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 7:52 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
So if the Red Sox record improves this year, they made a good trade for Hanrahan, even if Melancon puts up the same numbers in Pittsburgh that Hanrahan does in Boston, plus Sands hits 25 home runs for the Pirates? I'm sorry, but that's a bad trade for the Red Sox any way you look at it. They improved, but not as much as they would have by standing pat with what they had. It isn't that the guy you traded away becomes and All-Star that matters, it's that he would have helped you win more games than the guy you got.


If Melancon pitches as well for Pittsburgh as Hanrahan does for the Red Sox, then the Red Sox did not improve their team with the trade.

Okay, now you're making my argument for me. Thank you.4

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:24 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
So if the Red Sox record improves this year, they made a good trade for Hanrahan, even if Melancon puts up the same numbers in Pittsburgh that Hanrahan does in Boston, plus Sands hits 25 home runs for the Pirates? I'm sorry, but that's a bad trade for the Red Sox any way you look at it. They improved, but not as much as they would have by standing pat with what they had. It isn't that the guy you traded away becomes and All-Star that matters, it's that he would have helped you win more games than the guy you got.


If Melancon pitches as well for Pittsburgh as Hanrahan does for the Red Sox, then the Red Sox did not improve their team with the trade.

Okay, now you're making my argument for me. Thank you.4


Because Hanrahan was brought in to be an upgrade to Melancon. It's Hanrahan's performance that matters to the Red Sox.


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:21 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
If Melancon pitches as well for Pittsburgh as Hanrahan does for the Red Sox, then the Red Sox did not improve their team with the trade.

Okay, now you're making my argument for me. Thank you.4


Because Hanrahan was brought in to be an upgrade to Melancon. It's Hanrahan's performance that matters to the Red Sox.

So you don't ascribe to the notion that a team can overpay for a particular player? For instance, if Hammer is only marginally better than Melancon, was the trade still a good one for the Red Sox, despite the fact that they also gave up a 1B/OF prospect in Sands?

Would you call the 2005 Mark Mulder trade a good one for the Cardinals because it improved the team, even though they gave up Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton in the process?

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 1:19 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Because Hanrahan was brought in to be an upgrade to Melancon. It's Hanrahan's performance that matters to the Red Sox.

And Holt's. And the four players who they traded away.

Hanrahan was not brought in to be an upgrade to Melancon. He was brought in to be a closer.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:26 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Because Hanrahan was brought in to be an upgrade to Melancon. It's Hanrahan's performance that matters to the Red Sox.

And Holt's. And the four players who they traded away.

Hanrahan was not brought in to be an upgrade to Melancon. He was brought in to be a closer.


Which is an upgrade to what Melancon was for them. Geez. Do you argue just to argue?

The point is this: If Hanrahan performs GREAT as a closer for the Red Sox, and Holt becomes a solid utility infielder, it doesn't matter to the Red Sox if Melancon is a solid 8th inning relief pitcher for the Pirates and Sands hits 25 home runs. What matters is that they improved their club in the way that they desired through the trade. I assure you that the Red Sox already have a first baseman who will out-perform Jerry Sands, so they're not "losing" his production.

If Pimentel becomes a solid MLB pitcher in 4 years, that doesn't matter to the Red Sox either -- they have a bunch of lottery ticket pitchers in the minors, too. The trade was made to improve the Red Sox in 2013. If it does that, then the trade worked for the Red Sox. It doesn't matter to them if the Pirates "win the trade" in the long run; that wasn't the point.

This should not be difficult to understand.


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:28 pm 
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Willton wrote:
So you don't ascribe to the notion that a team can overpay for a particular player? For instance, if Hammer is only marginally better than Melancon, was the trade still a good one for the Red Sox, despite the fact that they also gave up a 1B/OF prospect in Sands?


Of course a team can overpay for a player. My point is that an overpay can, on occasion, still be a good move if it helps a team achieve its goal.

Would you "overpay" for a player if, in advance, you knew that doing so would result in a World Series win? Of course you would. That's why these teams play the game.

As for Hanrahan/Melancon, see my prior response to sisyphus.


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:34 pm 
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Quote:
I assure you that the Red Sox already have a first baseman who will out-perform Jerry Sands, so they're not "losing" his production.


They might be on the market looking for another one since they haven't officially signed Napoli yet...LaRoche signed with Washington. Garrett Jones must be looking nice right about now.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:53 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Willton wrote:
So you don't ascribe to the notion that a team can overpay for a particular player? For instance, if Hammer is only marginally better than Melancon, was the trade still a good one for the Red Sox, despite the fact that they also gave up a 1B/OF prospect in Sands?


Of course a team can overpay for a player. My point is that an overpay can, on occasion, still be a good move if it helps a team achieve its goal.

Would you "overpay" for a player if, in advance, you knew that doing so would result in a World Series win? Of course you would. That's why these teams play the game.

Sure, but here's the thing: nobody knows whether executing a trade for a particular player will result in a World Series win. And if you overpay and fail to reach the World Series, even if the received player plays well, is it still a good trade?

Did Boston execute a good trade in 1990 when it traded minor league prospect Jeff Bagwell to Houston for major league reliever Larry Anderson, even when Anderson pitched well for Boston? Would your view of the trade change if the Red Sox had won the 1990 ALCS against Oakland?

I'll go back to the Mark Mulder trade. Do you view the 2005 Mark Mulder trade as a good one for St. Louis? Would your view be any different if St. Louis had beaten the Astros in the NLCS and made it to the World Series?

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 1:53 pm 
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Boston is not a shaky closer away from the World Series.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 1:59 pm 
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Good points on both sides of this. Trades have to be analyzed on a trade by trade basis...

1. What was the team's reason for the trade?
2. Is it a long term goal or a short term goal?
3. Is the team going for it all THIS YEAR?
4. Big market team or small market team?
5. Deep farm system or weak farm system?

In all honesty I don't think the Hanrahan deal was made for a World Series or bust reason. First, if Hammer pitches well Boston has the money to sign him to a longer term contract at some point. Second, I don't think the Red Sox are at all concerned about losing any of the players they gave up. They felt Hanrahan was worth the gamble and they probably feel they gave up very little, if anything. They also probably feel they got the better utility infielder back in return.

I tend to agree with them, and will be thrilled to come here and say I was wrong at some point this season. I hope Melancon turns in to a Grilli-like set up guy(ironically for Grilli) and Sands turns in to a 25 HR guy. But I don't think that is how Boston sees this trade. I think they are taking a chance on a guy who was dominant two years ago and didn't give up anything to get him.

I, for one, long for the day when the Pirates are in a position to consider an overpay in a trade to push them over the top!


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:31 am 
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Hmmmm,

Might be time to consider this one again, since I see that JC calls me out.

And, yes, I'd say that more than being two years behind Walt, he's pretty much caught up now, and may be the team MVP.

Walt never had to build a team so bereft of talent in his career.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:50 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Hmmmm,

Might be time to consider this one again, since I see that JC calls me out.

And, yes, I'd say that more than being two years behind Walt, he's pretty much caught up now, and may be the team MVP.

Walt never had to build a team so bereft of talent in his career.

ZM


This thread will never die!

:lol:

While I'm certainly pleased with the Pirates' 2013 season thus far, I'd like to caution everyone. As a great man once said: "Let's not all start sucking each other's d*cks yet. This ain't over."

If the Pirates qualify for the "word that rhymes with 'tradeoffs'" this year, then I'll gleefully rescind my request for Neal Huntington's severed head, declare him King for a Day in Pittsburgh, and support granting him a long-term extension as General Manager of the PBC. But first, I want to see some October baseball...


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:59 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
Ryann wrote:
I like how you leave out Mike Leake who is the perhaps the 2nd best pitcher to come out of the draft, and has had a huge impact on the Reds.

Here is a prediction that just about every other baseball fan has proffered regarding Leake:

His peripherals do not bode well for continued success. He has a high WHIP, a low K rate, and is on pace to see his ERA climb. Pitchers who walk guys and give up a lot of hits, and who do not fan many batters, are dancing between the raindrops and are likely to experience problems.

That may explain why Leake has won just 1 of list last 7 starts, and why his ERA in June is 4.24.


Hey! Here's a rare instance where I get to call out Bucfan! Yay!

Mike Leake has developed into a very, very good pitcher.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30465/mike-leake

Check that out. He's posted a 2.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 67 Ks to 21 BBs, and a 2.6 WAR so far in 2013. Quality, eh?


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:21 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Hey! Here's a rare instance where I get to call out Bucfan! Yay!

Mike Leake has developed into a very, very good pitcher.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30465/mike-leake

Check that out. He's posted a 2.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 67 Ks to 21 BBs, and a 2.6 WAR so far in 2013. Quality, eh?

No doubt, wrong on Leake this year. I have noticed that his velocity is much better than what I saw from him last year and the year prior. He is dealing at 92-93 mph.

He is a much better pitcher than I anticipated, in no small part to his increased velocity and increasing K rate as a result. I think that Leake is becoming a poster child for letting young pitchers develop in the minor leagues, since now the Reds will see him become pretty darn expensive right as arbitration kicks in.


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:26 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Hey! Here's a rare instance where I get to call out Bucfan! Yay!

Mike Leake has developed into a very, very good pitcher.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30465/mike-leake

Check that out. He's posted a 2.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 67 Ks to 21 BBs, and a 2.6 WAR so far in 2013. Quality, eh?

No doubt, wrong on Leake this year. I have noticed that his velocity is much better than what I saw from him last year and the year prior. He is dealing at 92-93 mph.

He is a much better pitcher than I anticipated, in no small part to his increased velocity and increasing K rate as a result. I think that Leake is becoming a poster child for letting young pitchers develop in the minor leagues, since now the Reds will see him become pretty darn expensive right as arbitration kicks in.


Man, we get along so well now. Read back through this thread and remember when we went at it. Apparently, when the Pirates are winning, you and I are best friends!

As for the minor league/major league thing, you could also argue that the Reds are getting the best innings from Leake by using his live young arm in the majors. We don't know. But if he keeps pitching for Dusty Baker, we can probably predict a few DL stints and a trip to Dr. Andrews at some point in his future...


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:27 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Man, we get along so well now. Read back through this thread and remember when we went at it. Apparently, when the Pirates are winning, you and I are best friends!

As for the minor league/major league thing, you could also argue that the Reds are getting the best innings from Leake by using his live young arm in the majors. We don't know. But if he keeps pitching for Dusty Baker, we can probably predict a few DL stints and a trip to Dr. Andrews at some point in his future...

Well, forum chemistry is like clubhouse chemistry: it's always better when you're winning. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:53 am 
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Sorry, can't let this one pass.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:15 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Boston is not a shaky closer away from the World Series.


Nope, but apparently they may have been a good closer away from the World Series.

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