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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:04 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Willton wrote:
There's more to baseball than the 9th inning. Your focus on late-game situations largely ignores the work that players do during the rest of the game that is more outcome-determinative than what happens in a limited number of "clutch" situations.


Like how a player performs when he comes up with runners in scoring position? Or is that just luck?

A large sample size is more significant than a small sample size. Always.

However, in this case, we have somebody arguing that Nady is more of a clutch hitter despite the fact that Bay hits much, much better with runners in scoring position, so there is no point in making the argument that there is no evidence that clutch hitting is a repeatable skill.

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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:54 am 
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No. 9 wrote:
Willton wrote:
There's more to baseball than the 9th inning. Your focus on late-game situations largely ignores the work that players do during the rest of the game that is more outcome-determinative than what happens in a limited number of "clutch" situations.


Like how a player performs when he comes up with runners in scoring position? Or is that just luck?

No, because once again, that's thinking too narrowly. There's more to baseball than RISP opportunities. You need to realize that the plate appearances with no RISP is just as important as those with RISP, as plate appearances with no men on is an opportunity to create a situation with RISP (or score outright with a homerun).

Further, how one does with RISP tends to mirror how one does in all situations. For instance, Bay has a career line of .281/.377/.516 overall and .284/.397/.523 with RISP. As you can see, making the distinction does not tell us much.

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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 9:31 am 
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Willton wrote:
You need to realize that the plate appearances with no RISP is just as important as those with RISP, as plate appearances with no men on is an opportunity to create a situation with RISP (or score outright with a homerun).


LaRoche at-bat in the third inning, runners on second and third, one out. Bucs down 4-2.
LaRoche at-bat in the ninth inning, no one on base, one out. Bucs down 4-2.

How LaRoche performs in the ninth is "just as important" as how he performs in the third?

I understand (or "realize" as you put it) that getting on base is part of trying to create runs. But getting those runs home is how games are won or lost. You'll never be able to convince me that all plate appearances are equivalent (or, in your words, "just as important") to one another. Just as you were never able to convince me that an out is an out is an out.

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Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:05 pm 
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Here's a question for you . . . was Abreu's AB in the third inning last night "just as important" as his AB in the ninth inning last night?

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Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:29 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Here's a question for you . . . was Abreu's AB in the third inning last night "just as important" as his AB in the ninth inning last night?

As far as evaluating a player is concerned, which is what we're doing here with Nady and Bay, yes, it was.

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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:36 pm 
Willton wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
Here's a question for you . . . was Abreu's AB in the third inning last night "just as important" as his AB in the ninth inning last night?

As far as evaluating a player is concerned, which is what we're doing here with Nady and Bay, yes, it was.


I disagree. WHEN a player gets a hit or doesn't get a hit is hugely important. The goal is to win games, and the WHEN is a huge factor in that.


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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:41 am 
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Elmer wrote:
Willton wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
Here's a question for you . . . was Abreu's AB in the third inning last night "just as important" as his AB in the ninth inning last night?

As far as evaluating a player is concerned, which is what we're doing here with Nady and Bay, yes, it was.


I disagree. WHEN a player gets a hit or doesn't get a hit is hugely important. The goal is to win games, and the WHEN is a huge factor in that.

I agree as far as winning games are concerned, but when it comes to evaluating how well a player plays, focusing on narrowly tailored situations loses sight of the player's true value. It is for these reasons that people overrate players like Joe Carter and Ruben Sierra and underrate players like Jason Bay. A broader perspective is needed.

Players do not pick and choose when they get hits; if they could, they'd hit all the time. Players can control the frequency at which they get their hits, but they do not control the "when" that you speak of to any degree of certainty. That's why asking silly questions, such as the one No. 9 asked above, does not advance the discussion.

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 Post subject: Re: bay and nady
PostPosted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:13 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Willton wrote:
You need to realize that the plate appearances with no RISP is just as important as those with RISP, as plate appearances with no men on is an opportunity to create a situation with RISP (or score outright with a homerun).


LaRoche at-bat in the third inning, runners on second and third, one out. Bucs down 4-2.
LaRoche at-bat in the ninth inning, no one on base, one out. Bucs down 4-2.

How LaRoche performs in the ninth is "just as important" as how he performs in the third?

I understand (or "realize" as you put it) that getting on base is part of trying to create runs. But getting those runs home is how games are won or lost. You'll never be able to convince me that all plate appearances are equivalent (or, in your words, "just as important") to one another. Just as you were never able to convince me that an out is an out is an out.

The problem with your scenario is that the first example probably comes up 10 times as often as the second, but you're treating them as equals.

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