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 Post subject: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 12:39 am 
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Tabata homered for the second time in the past 4 games. So far in AAA, Tabata is hitting .351/.400/.512. His .912 OPS is pretty remarkable for a guy in AAA who just turned 21 a few days ago.

Great to see that he is not struggling with the higher level competition when moved from AA to AAA. If his defense is as good as advertised, and if he continues to hit AAA pitching like this, he will be playing RF by June of next year. That would move Garrett Jones to first, and improve both the hitting and OF defense quite a bit.

I am intrigued by a Pirates team next summer that would feature the following line-up. The players ages are noted in parentheses:

CF McCutchen (22)
2B Young (27)
3B Laroche (25)
1B Jones (28)
C Doumit (28)
LF Milledge (24)
RF Tabata (21)
SS Cedeno (26)

Average age for the 8 potential starters by midway 2010 would be 25. That would have to be the youngest starting line-up in the majors.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 12:42 am 
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Add to that the potential line up of Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf, Morton, and Hart who all would average around 26 or 27.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:13 am 
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cappscrew138 wrote:
Add to that the potential line up of Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf, Morton, and Hart who all would average around 26 or 27.

Indeed. And pitching depth is abundant - Daniel McCutchen, Brad Lincoln, Tim Alderson are all in the upper minors. Jose Ascanio is a power arm who is a potential starter. Those four are good enough to challenge for starting jobs with quite a few teams.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:34 am 
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I have read that no scout in baseball believes he is 20-21. Most seem to believe he is at least 2 years older. From the for what it is worth department.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:40 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I have read that no scout in baseball believes he is 20-21. Most seem to believe he is at least 2 years older. From the for what it is worth department.

ZM


That's funny. I was just typing the same thing. Does that matter to you and others? I'm not sure it does since he is performaing. However, I would be wary of the "Ortiz" decline in 10 years.

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:04 am 
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BostonBuc wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
I have read that no scout in baseball believes he is 20-21. Most seem to believe he is at least 2 years older. From the for what it is worth department.

ZM


That's funny. I was just typing the same thing. Does that matter to you and others? I'm not sure it does since he is performaing. However, I would be wary of the "Ortiz" decline in 10 years.


Ortiz may not be a good measuring stick. He was pretty average early in his career and is quickly declining after the beginning of drug testing in which he didn't exactly get an A+. Possible, just possible that his playing success may be linked to drugs. I know he is very popular in Boston but, hey, not so much here.

Tabata's age may be a factor but I think an increasiongly small one as he is now performing well in AAA and about major league ready. Meant more when he was in A ball.

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:16 am 
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[quote="Substitute2"]Ortiz may not be a good measuring stick. He was pretty average early in his career and is quickly declining after the beginning of drug testing in which he didn't exactly get an A+. Possible, just possible that his playing success may be linked to drugs. I know he is very popular in Boston but, hey, not so much here.[\quote]

I thought about the drugs when I typed it, but no ther example of "getting old fast" popped into mind. I know Ortiz was linked to drugs, and I think what's funny is listening to people here talk about his "supplement problem" and totally discount that he could have used steroids.

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 3:35 pm 
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As for Tabata's age ... he signed with the Yankees at age 16. He weighed 165 lbs when he signed. He now weighs 210 lbs. That kind of weight gain is normal for males between the ages of 16 and 20. Additionally, he is not from the Dominican, home of the phony birth certificate. He is from Venezuela.

I have heard some question his age, but have not heard that scouts uniformly "doubt" his age.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 5:54 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
As for Tabata's age ... he signed with the Yankees at age 16. He weighed 165 lbs when he signed. He now weighs 210 lbs. That kind of weight gain is normal for males between the ages of 16 and 20. Additionally, he is not from the Dominican, home of the phony birth certificate. He is from Venezuela.

I have heard some question his age, but have not heard that scouts uniformly "doubt" his age.


As far as I'm concerned, the age of all the Latin players is very suspect. There is a pretty strong motivation to fudge the numbers on the birth certificates, and it has to do with the prospect of eight-figure salaries.

But for Tabata and the Pirates, it doesn't matter. Let's say he is 23 and comes up next year...so we'll be getting him in his prime years. When he leaves, he'll be close to 30 and on his way down. It will be the team who signs him in free agency that will get screwed, not us.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:23 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
As far as I'm concerned, the age of all the Latin players is very suspect.

No Venezeluan player, to my knowledge, has been implicated in questions about age.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:30 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
As for Tabata's age ... he signed with the Yankees at age 16. He weighed 165 lbs when he signed. He now weighs 210 lbs. That kind of weight gain is normal for males between the ages of 16 and 20. Additionally, he is not from the Dominican, home of the phony birth certificate. He is from Venezuela.

I have heard some question his age, but have not heard that scouts uniformly "doubt" his age.


As far as I'm concerned, the age of all the Latin players is very suspect. There is a pretty strong motivation to fudge the numbers on the birth certificates, and it has to do with the prospect of eight-figure salaries.

But for Tabata and the Pirates, it doesn't matter. Let's say he is 23 and comes up next year...so we'll be getting him in his prime years. When he leaves, he'll be close to 30 and on his way down. It will be the team who signs him in free agency that will get screwed, not us.

I strongly disagree. There is a huge difference between dominating AAA at 21 and putting up the same numbers at 23. You're right about getting his prime years, but his ceiling for those years is a lot lower if he's 23 right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:47 pm 
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Regarding the scouts age assessment, all one has to do is search DK archives to find the quotes.

Again, for me it is in the "for what it is worth" department.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 11:44 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Regarding the scouts age assessment, all one has to do is search DK archives to find the quotes.
ZM

I googled "tabata doubt age," and came up with nothing supporting your statement. I did find articles noting that Tabata was quite productive for a hitter his age. I also searched PPG under "Tabata" and "age" and came up with nothing.

Not buying.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 12:06 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Regarding the scouts age assessment, all one has to do is search DK archives to find the quotes.
ZM

I googled "tabata doubt age," and came up with nothing supporting your statement. I did find articles noting that Tabata was quite productive for a hitter his age. I also searched PPG under "Tabata" and "age" and came up with nothing.

Not buying.


There was exactly one article written by DK that I can remember that said some scouts do question his age.

Which is a far cry from:

ZM wrote:
I have read that no scout in baseball believes he is 20-21. Most seem to believe he is at least 2 years older.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 12:52 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:27 am 
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My source, for the quote about Tabata's age comes from Jim Callis on Rocco's show during the "trade review" interview. It's probably from Aug 1st or so if you want to download the Podcast.

His specific quote was "'I have not talked w/ a single scout that believes he is 20". They talked for 1-2 minutes about why Jim and the scouts think this, which basically revolves around his size and strength.

I don't know what his actual age is, but I think it brings up two interesting quetions:
1) Does it matter? (which was the question I was asking)
2) What do the Pirates believe?

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 12:56 pm 
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I think Ortiz's delcine is a mix of the drug testing and the fact it doesnt look like he has taken good care of his body...

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 3:43 pm 
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BostonBuc wrote:
My source, for the quote about Tabata's age comes from Jim Callis on Rocco's show during the "trade review" interview. It's probably from Aug 1st or so if you want to download the Podcast.

His specific quote was "'I have not talked w/ a single scout that believes he is 20". They talked for 1-2 minutes about why Jim and the scouts think this, which basically revolves around his size and strength.

I don't know what his actual age is, but I think it brings up two interesting quetions:
1) Does it matter? (which was the question I was asking)
2) What do the Pirates believe?



Thank you yes, that is the one I remember being the strongest.

Like I said, from the WIIW department.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:09 pm 
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BostonBuc wrote:
They talked for 1-2 minutes about why Jim and the scouts think this, which basically revolves around his size and strength.

That is interesting, since he was 160 lbs. when signed. He has been in the professional ranks now for 5 years, and his playing weight is listed at 215 presently.

That type of development and weight gain is not uncommon for males between the ages of 16 and 21. Further, at least part of his weight gain comes from having access to the training table.

I have not seen Tabata in person. I have only seen pictures and videos from the MILB web site. From what I have seen, Tabata is no bigger than a lot of college juniors and seniors. His size and strength just do not seem that out of reason.

Also, for a guy who is supposedly too strong for his age, Tabata has not hit an unusual number of HR's, though he puts the bat on the ball very well and K's at a low rate.

Just don't get this. He gained too much weight, though going from a teenage boy to a man very often brings about exactly this kind of weight gain. He is too strong, though his strength when hitting is not unusual. He is too big for a 21-year old, though he is smaller than a lot of college juniors and seniors.

I certainly cannot rule out age issues, but to offer this observation with no supporting facts, apart from "he looks too big," is patently unfair.

BostonBuc wrote:
I don't know what his actual age is, but I think it brings up two interesting quetions:
1) Does it matter? (which was the question I was asking)
2) What do the Pirates believe?

Yes, it matters very much. A guy drafted out of high school who makes AAA in three years (by age 21) is a big-time talent. (See, McCutchen, Andrew.) A guy drafted out of college who makes AAA in three years may be a good player, but not of the same level.

As for the second question - no idea. I guess they should run the same tests as they did on Sano.


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 Post subject: Re: Tabata homers
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:03 pm 
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After Bucfan put the whole "fact check" thing on me, I went a searching and found a bunch of notes and blogs from Yankee types saying Tabata was first noticed by a Yanks area scout at 14, signed the day he turned 16 and off we go.

Now, I don't know this, but is 14 a common age to notice and start tracking a kid's development?

ZM

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