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 Post subject: Evaluating Young Talent: What's in the numbers?
PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 5:39 pm 
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One of the reasons I registered for this board, aside from being a life long inmate.. err Pirates Fan... is that there are quite a few of you that really know the science/math behind this great game of ours.

And since so much of being a Pirates fan in recent years is about reading and watching young arms, gloves, and bats, I was curious as to what you thought were the most important statistics in looking at guys Double A and below. You know, the really young guys.

For pitchers, for example, which stats tend to correlate best to what they can do in the bigs?

And what's the most critical stat for a young fielder/batter?

This might not be an easy question to answer, but I look forward to some of you trying :)

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 Post subject: Re: Evaluating Young Talent: What's in the numbers?
PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 5:54 pm 
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Pitchers
Velocity
No. of BB's
Whip

Hitters
Walk/K ratio
Doubles at low levels as player may develop better power and he matures.
Need to check home field dimensions.
Body type.

Fielding
Arm strength.
Cannot go by fielding percentage. Many minor league parks are not good fields.
Footwork
Instinct, jump on ball.
routes


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 Post subject: Re: Evaluating Young Talent: What's in the numbers?
PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 5:57 pm 
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Ah. maybe easier to answer than I thought. Thanks AZ!

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 Post subject: Re: Evaluating Young Talent: What's in the numbers?
PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 6:04 pm 
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Az gave a very good summary. His focus on walk vs. K rate, for both hitters and pitchers, is spot on.

Hitters who walk as much as they K in the lower minors have a history of success as they advance. The number of low walk, high K batters in the low minors who succeed in the majors is miniscule.

For pitchers, low walk rates and high K rates project to success at higher levels, since those stats show that the pitcher has command as well as swing-and-miss stuff.


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 Post subject: Re: Evaluating Young Talent: What's in the numbers?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:23 am 
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Don't forget age, of course. Good stats mean less if its a 25 year old in low A ball.


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