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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:06 pm 
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Willton wrote:
And my guess is that they're right: Freddy is very likely to make much more than $2M in 2011. In fact, I'd say that Freddy is likely to make at least twice that amount, given what the Pirates offered him on a per-year basis.


Two baseball years is a long time. There is more risk involved for Freddy than I think you're giving him. Heck, his bid for 635 PAs this year could go up in smoke with a simple hbp or bad hop. He still has 275 PAs to go.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:07 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Willton wrote:
BBF wrote:
Willton-

What is- in your opinion- fair value for Sanchez and/or Wilson? One of a team's top 10 prospects? More? Less? Just asking, because I find myself struggling to value these guys.

Actually, I'd like to hear everyone answer that one, because I guarantee no matter how much he gets for these guys, people will be complaining that it wasn't enough. So let's hear it now, instead of after the fact.

I'd say Tim Alderson, RHP of the Giants would be a good return. Somewhere in that ballpark would be acceptable to me.


Wow! If we could get Alderson for Sanchez straight up, I would be ecstatic!

I'm not certain Freddy has that much value. But that is a fair enough ballpark, I suppose.

I remember Joe Sheehan suggested that the Pirates offer Sanchez and LaRoche to the Giants for Alderson. I'd say that's reasonable too.

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:07 pm 
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I would take that deal in a hearbeat. Tim Alderson is a big time talent. Local kid from Horizon HS here in Phoenix. He didn't walk 10 guys combined his Jr. and Sr. year. Giants would be crazy or desperate to make that deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:09 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
Willton wrote:
And my guess is that they're right: Freddy is very likely to make much more than $2M in 2011. In fact, I'd say that Freddy is likely to make at least twice that amount, given what the Pirates offered him on a per-year basis.


Two baseball years is a long time. There is more risk involved for Freddy than I think you're giving him. Heck, his bid for 635 PAs this year could go up in smoke with a simple hbp or bad hop. He still has 275 PAs to go.

No, his All-Star selection drops the requisite amount of PAs to 600. Freddy only needs 240 more to make the option vest.

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:12 pm 
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His back could flare up in a NY minute. He wants to play hard ball then sit him. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:13 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
I would take that deal in a hearbeat. Tim Alderson is a big time talent. Local kid from Horizon HS here in Phoenix. He didn't walk 10 guys combined his Jr. and Sr. year. Giants would be crazy or desperate to make that deal.


I agree. I don't think we will get him. Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson are the Giants only real good pitching prospects. I think we would stand a better chance at Jonathan Sanchez still. Although if the Giants are thinking about going somewhere this season they might want to trade Alderson and keep J.Sanchez just because he is already a major league pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:18 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Bad analogy. First, $10M over 2 years is not their budget; they can in fact pay him much more than that. So, if you can actually pay more than the $500k for the house, but only offer $400k, you run the risk of not being asked back to the table with a chance to amend your offer. Second, there's already a firm offer on the table: $8M for one year that the team is obligated to pay should Freddy reach 600 PAs (which is likely to happen). So, sticking with the analogy, you're competing with another buyer that's willing to pay a whole lot more for the house but with a few more express conditions. If you want that house, why would you submit an offer that is worse in many respects than the competitor's offer? (As you see, there's no consideration for time in buying a house, so this buying-a-house analogy falls apart in that regard.)


You missed the point entirely.
The point is this . . . if you have a value that you are willing to spend for something . . . why not put it out there? The Pirates may be able to pay $40M/year for Sanchez, but they won't do it. What they can spend is completely different than what they want to spend. So . . . if they have decided internally that they would be happy to pay $9M per year over the next two years for Sanchez/Wilson combination, why not throw it out there? Perhaps it will work. Perhaps it won't.

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:34 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Willton wrote:
Bad analogy. First, $10M over 2 years is not their budget; they can in fact pay him much more than that. So, if you can actually pay more than the $500k for the house, but only offer $400k, you run the risk of not being asked back to the table with a chance to amend your offer. Second, there's already a firm offer on the table: $8M for one year that the team is obligated to pay should Freddy reach 600 PAs (which is likely to happen). So, sticking with the analogy, you're competing with another buyer that's willing to pay a whole lot more for the house but with a few more express conditions. If you want that house, why would you submit an offer that is worse in many respects than the competitor's offer? (As you see, there's no consideration for time in buying a house, so this buying-a-house analogy falls apart in that regard.)


You missed the point entirely.
The point is this . . . if you have a value that you are willing to spend for something . . . why not put it out there? The Pirates may be able to pay $40M/year for Sanchez, but they won't do it. What they can spend is completely different than what they want to spend. So . . . if they have decided internally that they would be happy to pay $9M per year over the next two years for Sanchez/Wilson combination, why not throw it out there? Perhaps it will work. Perhaps it won't.

Because it's not a good-faith offer. This is the same crap that other GMs hated Littlefield for: he would make outrageous trade demands that would piss off other GMs, and that in turn made it harder to make a deal. Here, Huntington is poisoning his own well, so to speak, for contract negotiations from a player's point of view. The way he's handling the Sanchez/Wilson situation may make it harder to sign a different player, perhaps a young productive player that comes up through the system (e.g. Alvarez, Tabata, Milledge, Lincoln, Morton, the draft picks that have yet to sign), to a long-term, club-friendly deal. If other players can't trust Huntington to make good faith offers regarding extensions, it's going to make it harder to make such deals in the future when it benefits the club.

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:39 pm 
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I agree, IF that is what is going on. Big IF.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:45 pm 
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Willton wrote:
I remember Joe Sheehan suggested that the Pirates offer Sanchez and LaRoche to the Giants for Alderson. I'd say that's reasonable too.


I think that is a much more reasonable deal for both teams. The Giants could use both guys. For some reason, Sabean doesn't want a "rental" 1bman, but after watching them this weekend, it seems obvious that Pablo Sandoval will be Prince Fielder-ing his way (that is to say, being a fat @ss) to be the full time 1bman in the future, so a rental would fit perfectly.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:33 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Argentum wrote:
Willton wrote:
And my guess is that they're right: Freddy is very likely to make much more than $2M in 2011. In fact, I'd say that Freddy is likely to make at least twice that amount, given what the Pirates offered him on a per-year basis.


Two baseball years is a long time. There is more risk involved for Freddy than I think you're giving him. Heck, his bid for 635 PAs this year could go up in smoke with a simple hbp or bad hop. He still has 275 PAs to go.

No, his All-Star selection drops the requisite amount of PAs to 600. Freddy only needs 240 more to make the option vest.


Which does little to alter my point.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:44 pm 
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I disagree that the Sanchez offer is not a good faith opening offer. I know that Sanchez is likely to gain the necessary plate appearances to vest his option for next year but it's no guarantee. An injury could still derail his season and, if it does, he's very unlikely to get a contract as good as the 2 year, $10 million that NH is offering. Even if the option vests, there's no guarantee of a $2 million pay day the year after. Again, it's likely but not guaranteed. So the 2 year, $10 million offer is a bird in hand; the vested option followed by, presumably, another contract worth more the $2 million is two in the bush.

I'm not saying Sanchez should accept it but I think it's a good faith offer.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:45 pm 
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Very complex situation, and a very good discussion. My two cents:

NH has been shopping Freddy and had no luck. Teams simply aren't willing to pay that high a price, either in the 8 million for next season or for the kind of player(s) we insist on in return. NH didn't know this in the beginning of the season but now is aware and looking for a way out of this money crunch he put himself in with this contract.

Jack is of course not much above a rent-a-player next year. As such, he should hope for 4 million and sign instantly.Freddy can hit much better, he's in the 2 slot and Jack of course is in the 8 slot for the last placed team. I absolutely agree that Freddy is the issue here not Jack.

If the Pirates are serious about keeping both, then they need to offer Freddy his present deal and 5 to 6 million more for 2011. IMO they can not sign him for less then 13 or 14 for the two years. To offer 8 for the 2 years must be unacceptable to him. He could counter offer but NH doesn't want to commit that much when he knows that his young kids are coming and going to be much more expensive.

Looks to me like Jack is gone or willing to sign for maybe 2 or 3 million and Freddy will be with us one more year and then go FA. We can't sell him because we can't get enough in return with the payroll issue for the new team on top of giving up a quality player. So, we get a draft pick.

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:48 pm 
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And another thought, since when did we start paying "market" for aging veterans? The $8 million option was stupid, NH will have to live with that, but to somehow include that in deciding current fair market value for Freddy's services seems ludicrous. The Pirates told him they feel his FMV is $5 million, which is too high in my opinion but I digress, if he wants to go for the $8 million and one year, that's his perogitive. So he has two otions:

1 - Hope to stay healthy and make $8 million next year
2 - Forgo the $8 million and take two years guaranteed at $5 million a piece

Honestly, I don't see how the Pirates offer is insulting.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 9:51 pm 
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I just can't imagine Freddy taking that 10 million over 2 years. Not only does that mean he's only worth 2 million in 2011, but another way of looking at it is it means giving back 3 million in 2010, and taking less in 2011 then he thinks he's worth. This is no way to sign Freddy. He's gone for sure if we give him the FMV stuff after just signing him to 8 million for next season. Are we nuts and how do we rationalize the FMV decreasing from 8 to 5 or decreasing by 37.5% for 2010. Why then did we sign him for 8 this past year? Was that his FMV?

I understand NHs problem but this doesn't solve it. What it does is point to a huge hole in our planning process. Guess we didn't think this one through when we started, did we Neil?

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:19 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
I just can't imagine Freddy taking that 10 million over 2 years. Not only does that mean he's only worth 2 million in 2011, but another way of looking at it is it means giving back 3 million in 2010, and taking less in 2011 then he thinks he's worth. This is no way to sign Freddy. He's gone for sure if we give him the FMV stuff after just signing him to 8 million for next season. Are we nuts and how do we rationalize the FMV decreasing from 8 to 5 or decreasing by 37.5% for 2010. Why then did we sign him for 8 this past year? Was that his FMV?

I understand NHs problem but this doesn't solve it. What it does is point to a huge hole in our planning process. Guess we didn't think this one through when we started, did we Neil?


Two things:

1 - He's not worth $8 million a year. Therefore he is not being paid less than he is worth at $5 million. As I stated earlier, I actually believe that he is being over paid at $5 million.

2 - My contention that he won't make more than $5 million in 2011 is just as valid as your contention that he will. Therefore he's just as likely to lose money by gambling on the $8 million and FA in 2011 as he is on taking the 2 years. Just how likely is anybody's guess.

Lastly, and this is not directed at you in particular, more of a general observation, IF NH had offered Freddy two years at $12 or $13 million, all the people screaming "lowball" would be screaming "over paid". And when Freddy wasn't hitting over .300 they'd be crying how NH pulled a real Littlefield by signing an overpriced, over the hill, free swinging contact hitter whose diminishing bat speed can no longer compensate for his swing at anything approach. You can bank that.


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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:42 pm 
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This is a good discussion and a good thread. I like it :)

I have been trying to think about how I would consider this deal. I put the dollars in terms I could relate to:

Assume you have an agreement to work a 12 month contract for 80,000 for the next calendar year (2010) but no agreement for the year after it (2011). Imagine your boss came to you and and said I will guarantee you 50,000 for the next two years instead of the 80,000 in 2010. What would you do?

I wouldn't take it. I don't think most people would. I think most people assume that they can always make as much or more in the following year. In this case the only way that I lose if I make less than 30,000 in 2011.

Further, I guarantee that Freddy has zero doubt that he will qualify for the AB so I don't think the reduction risk has any value to him at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:51 pm 
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I'm curious to see what kind of offer Jack and Freddy's agents come back with (if they do)

I'd do a base salary of the money originally offered and add bonuses based on plate appearances, All Star games, Gold Gloves, etc...

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 11:02 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
I'm curious to see what kind of offer Jack and Freddy's agents come back with (if they do)

I'd do a base salary of the money originally offered and add bonuses based on plate appearances, All Star games, Gold Gloves, etc...


Me too. I think I would come back with an option similar to that if I were Freddy. I think the PR right now totally favors Freddy and the general perception is that the Bucs were being cheap.

On another note, my 1st rock concert (8th grade) was Neil Young on his "Grand Solo Tour" circa 1983 w/ my dad. Two hours of Neil solo and an hour of his band at that time (the Shocking Pinks). The solo portion was amazing.

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 Post subject: Re: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez
PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 11:04 pm 
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BostonBuc wrote:
Two hours of Neil solo and an hour of his band at that time (the Shocking Pinks). The solo portion was amazing.


Loved that doo wop song they did, I think it was called "I'm Wondering". Or was that just the verse?


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