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 Post subject: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:55 pm 
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For the 2nd time this season, talks between the Red Sox and Jason Bay have been shelved. The Red Sox said they made an aggressive offer, but it was rejected.

So....does that certain someone here, who likes to bitch about the Bay trade, STILL think he actually would have resigned with the Pirates?


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:58 pm 
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This is an obvious sign that he WANTS to be part of a winning team here in Pittsburgh. He is going to follow suit of Jack and Freddy and look into taking a pay cut to come back to the Pirates and win. Jack, Jason, and Freddy will be the three amigos and heroes of this team.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 5:11 pm 
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cappscrew138 wrote:
This is an obvious sign that he WANTS to be part of a winning team here in Pittsburgh. He is going to follow suit of Jack and Freddy and look into taking a pay cut to come back to the Pirates and win. Jack, Jason, and Freddy will be the three amigos and heroes of this team.


If he comes back, he might have a tough time cracking the lineup with Jones and McCutchen and Milledge...

I guess they could use a power righty bat off the bench...

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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 5:47 pm 
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VanSlick wrote:
For the 2nd time this season, talks between the Red Sox and Jason Bay have been shelved. The Red Sox said they made an aggressive offer, but it was rejected.

So....does that certain someone here, who likes to bitch about the Bay trade, STILL think he actually would have resigned with the Pirates?


The offer he just rejected was in the $12 million range, and even that figure would have made him about one-quarter of the Pirates' payroll.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 5:59 pm 
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I think it was Wilton who said earlier about Bay not wanting to re-sign with Boston and wanting to go play for Seattle. I didn't believe him at the time, but now it is looking like he is right. Kudos to you man!


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:36 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
VanSlick wrote:
For the 2nd time this season, talks between the Red Sox and Jason Bay have been shelved. The Red Sox said they made an aggressive offer, but it was rejected.

So....does that certain someone here, who likes to bitch about the Bay trade, STILL think he actually would have resigned with the Pirates?


The offer he just rejected was in the $12 million range, and even that figure would have made him about one-quarter of the Pirates' payroll.


WOW -- what does he think he's worth. If he gets that much, I'm sure he will disappoint whomever he signs with. Well, he's a good guy and he'll be wealthy in the end.

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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:02 pm 
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urbanexplorer wrote:
I think it was Wilton who said earlier about Bay not wanting to re-sign with Boston and wanting to go play for Seattle. I didn't believe him at the time, but now it is looking like he is right. Kudos to you man!

I didn't say it, but I'm not surprised if that's the truth. I think Bay's home is around the Seattle area. But the main reason I think Bay rejected the deal is that he really wants to test the waters of free agency. At age 30, this is his one and only chance to get a big contract, so he's going to want to do it right, and that means no extensions unless they're ridiculously lucrative. And he'll probably get paid huge dollars too, as I think he'll be the top player in the free agent market this off-season.

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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:05 pm 
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Willton wrote:
urbanexplorer wrote:
I think it was Wilton who said earlier about Bay not wanting to re-sign with Boston and wanting to go play for Seattle. I didn't believe him at the time, but now it is looking like he is right. Kudos to you man!

I didn't say it, but I'm not surprised if that's the truth. I think Bay's home is around the Seattle area. But the main reason I think Bay rejected the deal is that he really wants to test the waters of free agency. At age 30, this is his one and only chance to get a big contract, so he's going to want to do it right, and that means no extensions unless they're ridiculously lucrative. And he'll probably get paid huge dollars too, as I think he'll be the top player in the free agent market this off-season.


Bay is from Trail B.C. so not real close (8 hours) to Seattle but in the Pacific Northwest.

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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:07 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
WOW -- what does he think he's worth. If he gets that much, I'm sure he will disappoint whomever he signs with. Well, he's a good guy and he'll be wealthy in the end.


He will probably end up with a four year contract at $14 mil per from whomever signs him. Given the salaries of players with similar numbers and age, I think he's probably worth that. A few examples (I've picked players within two years and 5 OPS+ points, where Bay is 30 and has a lifetime OPS+ of 130; also I limited this to players at "low intensity" defensive positions, i.e. 1B, LF, RF, DH):

Mark Teixeira: age 30, career OPS+ 135, $20.6 mil
Adam Dunn: 29, 131, $8 mil
Matt Holliday: 29, 130, $13.5 mil
Justin Morneau: 28, 126, $11.6 mil
Carlos Pena: 31, 125, $8 mil

That averages out to $12 mil annual salary, albeit with a lot of variation. Teixeira is being grossly overpaid and Dunn is probably being underpaid, so $12-$14 mil sounds about right for Bay.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:12 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:
Willton wrote:
urbanexplorer wrote:
I think it was Wilton who said earlier about Bay not wanting to re-sign with Boston and wanting to go play for Seattle. I didn't believe him at the time, but now it is looking like he is right. Kudos to you man!

I didn't say it, but I'm not surprised if that's the truth. I think Bay's home is around the Seattle area. But the main reason I think Bay rejected the deal is that he really wants to test the waters of free agency. At age 30, this is his one and only chance to get a big contract, so he's going to want to do it right, and that means no extensions unless they're ridiculously lucrative. And he'll probably get paid huge dollars too, as I think he'll be the top player in the free agent market this off-season.


Bay is from Trail B.C. so not real close (8 hours) to Seattle but in the Pacific Northwest.

This is a quote from a blog post Bay authored on WEEI.com's Full Count blog:
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston ... er-forget/
Quote:
Workout day. I run back in from the field to get sunglasses. Locker room completely empty except Ichiro stretching on the floor and his translator sitting on the chair beside him. Sow [sic] we make small talk, and I ask him where he lives in Seattle because I lived in the suburbs.

This leads me to believe that he knows the Seattle area rather well.

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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:50 pm 
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VanSlick wrote:
For the 2nd time this season, talks between the Red Sox and Jason Bay have been shelved. The Red Sox said they made an aggressive offer, but it was rejected.

So....does that certain someone here, who likes to bitch about the Bay trade, STILL think he actually would have resigned with the Pirates?


The Pirates should not have traded him. If the Pirates still had him, we would be in first place.

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"Live proud! Laugh Loud! Standout in a Crowd!"


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sat Jul 18, 2009 9:32 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
Substitute2 wrote:
WOW -- what does he think he's worth. If he gets that much, I'm sure he will disappoint whomever he signs with. Well, he's a good guy and he'll be wealthy in the end.


He will probably end up with a four year contract at $14 mil per from whomever signs him. Given the salaries of players with similar numbers and age, I think he's probably worth that. A few examples (I've picked players within two years and 5 OPS+ points, where Bay is 30 and has a lifetime OPS+ of 130; also I limited this to players at "low intensity" defensive positions, i.e. 1B, LF, RF, DH):

Mark Teixeira: age 30, career OPS+ 135, $20.6 mil
Adam Dunn: 29, 131, $8 mil
Matt Holliday: 29, 130, $13.5 mil
Justin Morneau: 28, 126, $11.6 mil
Carlos Pena: 31, 125, $8 mil

That averages out to $12 mil annual salary, albeit with a lot of variation. Teixeira is being grossly overpaid and Dunn is probably being underpaid, so $12-$14 mil sounds about right for Bay.


I think $12-14 mil sounds reasonable. At the time that we traded him, I was predicting he would have required $15-18 mil per season to sign, but that was before the downturn in the economy. I'd still say closer to $14 than 12.

The big thing, I think, will be the # of years. Bay is already 30, and has dealt with a wonky knee and shoulder problems. He'll be unlikely to get another lucrative deal after this one, so if I were in his shoes, I'd be looking for a 5 year + deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:56 am 
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Willton wrote:
bucco boy wrote:

Bay is from Trail B.C. so not real close (8 hours) to Seattle but in the Pacific Northwest.

This is a quote from a blog post Bay authored on WEEI.com's Full Count blog:
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston ... er-forget/
Quote:
Workout day. I run back in from the field to get sunglasses. Locker room completely empty except Ichiro stretching on the floor and his translator sitting on the chair beside him. Sow [sic] we make small talk, and I ask him where he lives in Seattle because I lived in the suburbs.

This leads me to believe that he knows the Seattle area rather well.



Bay does/did live in the Seattle area, so he is quite familiar with the Emerald City. Also, while Trail is 400+ miles away, it is very much Mariner country around there (for baseball fans, at least). He also went to Gonzaga (in Spokane) which has a huge Mariners following. I live almost smack dab in between Seattle and Spokane. They are pretty big fair-weather fans around the area, but if there is a baseball team to follow it is the Mariners.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 1:10 am 
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Animal wrote:

The Pirates should not have traded him. If the Pirates still had him, we would be in first place.


Well, that's a little silly to say. I caught myself believing the same earlier this season, but honestly, this team just doesn't have it yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 1:54 am 
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JimY wrote:
Animal wrote:

The Pirates should not have traded him. If the Pirates still had him, we would be in first place.


Well, that's a little silly to say. I caught myself believing the same earlier this season, but honestly, this team just doesn't have it yet.


Animal just forgot his sarcasm emoticon.

I did an analysis very early in the season as to whether the Pirates would be in contention with Bay. At the time, the Pirates pitchers were throwing out of their minds, the guys we got for Bay were playing sub-replacement ball, and Bay was putting up Manny-like numbers in Boston....so it appeared then that Bay would have put us over the top. However, I only looked at VORP in my analysis, which takes into account offense alone, so I neglected the fact that Bay was a huge liability in PNC's left field. (Aside: He's having an excellent year in Boston defensively, but that's the easiest left field to play in the majors. You don't need any range at all to play there. He's made it onto Sportscenter several times with diving catches as well...dare I say that a better left fielder wouldn't have had to dive.) Also, a lot has changed since then...Bay and the Pirate pitchers have cooled off, and Andy LaRoche has turned into a decent third baseman. I plan on doing the analysis again, but I suspect that Bay would be worth an extra 2-3 games over the entire season, not nearly enough to put the Pirates over the top.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 10:44 am 
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Bay is from Trail B.C. so not real close (8 hours) to Seattle but in the Pacific Northwest.

Slightly closer then Boston Mass.

_________________
2011 Will Be Our Year -- well make that 2012 (just saying) So it looks like 2013 now - how long must this go on!
THIS IS IT-- NO MORE STREAK!!! *** Finally*** Time to win it in 2014


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:14 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
Bay is from Trail B.C. so not real close (8 hours) to Seattle but in the Pacific Northwest.

Slightly closer then Boston Mass.


Not trying to bash on you or anyone else that has used this tidbit of info on why Bay might not want to play in Seattle, but an 8 hour drive to see baseball isn't that big of deal around the Pacific Northwest. This isn't Pittsburgh where, within an 8 or 9 hour drive, you could have over a dozen teams available. For a majority of baseball fans, an 8 hour drive JUST to see a game is reality. For an idea of the how large the geographic area of the Pacific Northwest gets Mariners broadcast, they have TV/radio affiliates in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Canada and Alaska.


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:21 pm 
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Chris Anderson wrote:
Substitute2 wrote:
Bay is from Trail B.C. so not real close (8 hours) to Seattle but in the Pacific Northwest.

Slightly closer then Boston Mass.


Not trying to bash on you or anyone else that has used this tidbit of info on why Bay might not want to play in Seattle, but an 8 hour drive to see baseball isn't that big of deal around the Pacific Northwest. This isn't Pittsburgh where, within an 8 or 9 hour drive, you could have over a dozen teams available. For a majority of baseball fans, an 8 hour drive JUST to see a game is reality. For an idea of the how large the geographic area of the Pacific Northwest gets Mariners broadcast, they have TV/radio affiliates in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Canada and Alaska.


When I lived in Montana, I was 8 hours away from Seattle...I had a 3 day weekend from the school I was working at and drove out and took in the sights and sounds (very good music scene)...Everything in Montana was a 3 or 4 hour trip...I had wrestling matches we rode on a bus for 5 hours for a match against a school that had 5 kids, compared to my team that had 20...

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For those jumping ship, we'll keep the bandwagon warm for you...


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 Post subject: Re: Um....No
PostPosted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:35 pm 
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JimY wrote:
Animal wrote:

The Pirates should not have traded him. If the Pirates still had him, we would be in first place.


Well, that's a little silly to say. I caught myself believing the same earlier this season, but honestly, this team just doesn't have it yet.



Was kidding... as somone said, I forgot the sarcasm emoticon. Which smilie was that again?? :lol:

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