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 Post subject: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:12 pm 
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There has been much debate about Milledge and his upside. There have been many, led by myself, who want no part of the bum until he shows the ATTITUDE that should go along with being a major league player. There have been many who believe the guy is the next coming. But the truth is, the guy has not really done that much in his career. Let's compare the four candidates for the starting corner positions for the Bucs and what they have done along the way to where they are now. It is pretty obvious that part of the problem for Milledge is that he was rushed and did not get enough playing time at AAA.

BRANDON MOSS

25 years old
481 major league at bats
.252 BA 11 HR 58 RBI 54 runs 32 doubles 6 triples
.310 on base and .722 OPS
decent defense

At AAA, he had .282 BA, .485 slugging and .844 OPS
24 HR and 108 RBI in 656 at bats 49 doubles and 6 triples

In his minor league career of 7 seasons, appx 2500 at bats, he hit .287 with .816 OPS, 74 HR 403 RBI, 379 runs, and 48 SB. Throughout the minors, he consitently hit 15+ HR per year.


LASTINGS MILLEDGE

24 years old
897 major league at bats
.261 BA, 25 HR, 113 RBI, 107 R, 40 doubles, 5 triples
.326 OBP and .726 OPS
25 SB
average to below average defense

AAA
.273 BA, .362 OBP, .767 OPS in 450 AB
8 HR, 47 RBI, 73 R, 27 doubles, 4 triples
25 stolen bases

Overall in minors 7 years – 1300 Abs
.300/.377/.845
36 HR 173 RBI
93 doubles, 8 triples, 243 runs
88 SB in 127 attempts

He really hasn’t shown hardly any power since hitting 15 HR in 2004 as a 19 year old when he was worlds above the other players in rookie league and low A…but his play has consistently gone down hill throughout his career. Early on, he was really, really good.


DELWYN YOUNG

27 years old
300 major league at bats
.286 BA, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 31 R, 15 doubles, 1 triples
.356 OBP and .760 OPS
below average defense
has been very good this year
great in the clutch and off bench

AAA
.306 BA, .357 OBP, .867 OPS in 1240 AB
42 HR, 219 RBI, 2203 R, 113 doubles, 7 triples
7 SB in 14 attempts

Overall in minors 8 years – 2750 Abs
.303/.363/.876
105 HR, 480 RBI
230 doubles, 19 triples, 457 runs

He consistently hit 15-22 HR every year except his first short season. He really has shown decent power, great doubles and triples hitter. He really could be a great 4th OF, backup 1b, 2b, PH type guy, if not a starter.

GARRETT JONES

28 years old
A couple cups of coffee
Didn’t do anything in 77 ABs in 2006
Has been sensational in 11 games so far this year.
.310/.370/ 1.131 OPS
5 HR, 2 doubles, and triple in 11 games
3 SB in 3 attempts
Good, solid defense
Nice deceiving speed.

AAA
5 seasons 2200 at bats
.258 BA, .312 OBP, .762
93 HR, 375 RBI, 326 R, 216 doubles, 20 triples
54 SB in 82 attempts

Don’t really know what to make of Jones. He has been unbelievable so far, but can he really be expected to keep up numbers in the majors better than his minor league career? One thing he has been excellent at though, throughout the minors is hitting HR. This is really something we need…especially from his side of the plate. In last 6 minor league seasons he hit 31, 30, 24, 21, 13(half season), 23, and 12(this year so far) HR per year.

So what does this all mean? Personally for me, I ride Garrett Jones until he falters. I keep running Moss out there in RF. The guy really is a great prospect having a bad time right now. But he has been as successful in the past as Milledge and probably even a little better throughout their minor league career. He has played better than Milledge this year too, despite not doing well.

I would keep playing DYoung a few days a week for Jones and Moss, giving him a spot start here and there at 2b. Surprisingly, he has only played 1 game at 1b in minors and never in the majors. In the minors, he played about 3 times as many games at 2b than in the outfield.

I keep Milledge at AAA at least until the rosters expand in September, unless he is tearing it up, and the ones here are not doing well.

Your thoughts?

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:20 pm 
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I give Adam LaRoche about a week to break out in a major way, then I bench him and put Jones at first. Then I play both Young and Moss and keep an eye on Milliedge at Indy. He would have to show me an improved attitude and work ethic. Someone mentioned this earlier, but it scares me to death that he could rub off negatively on young McCutchen.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:20 pm 
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Milledge's defense in LF is not "below average."

He has an "ultimate zone rating" (a measure of range, outs recorded on balls in play, plus factoring in arm strength) of 0.2. That is barely above average, but it is above average, not below.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:21 pm 
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doug frobel wrote:
I give Adam LaRoche about a week to break out in a major way, then I bench him and put Jones at first. Then I play both Young and Moss and keep an eye on Milliedge at Indy. He would have to show me an improved attitude and work ethic. Someone mentioned this earlier, but it scares me to death that he could rub off negatively on young McCutchen.



That's what worries me also.

McCutchen has cooled off a bit since his mentor was traded, but that was bound to happen.

My point with the comparison though is that we have all these fans wanting to dump Moss and give the job to Milledge. Just look at the comparison. That is not really the thing to do, just based on their numbers and not considering any other factors.

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Last edited by Animal on Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:22 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Milledge's defense in LF is not "below average."

He has an "ultimate zone rating" (a measure of range, outs recorded on balls in play, plus factoring in arm strength) of 0.2. That is barely above average, but it is above average, not below.


Have you seen him at Indy yet? Obviously I have not, but his defense in the majors had been below average throughout his career, from what I have seen. He would probably be better in LF than he has been in CF.

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:28 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Milledge's defense in LF is not "below average."

He has an "ultimate zone rating" (a measure of range, outs recorded on balls in play, plus factoring in arm strength) of 0.2. That is barely above average, but it is above average, not below.


Have you seen him at Indy yet? Obviously I have not, but his defense in the majors had been below average throughout his career, from what I have seen. He would probably be better in LF than he has been in CF.

Bucfan just cited with statistics that he is slightly above average. What statistics are you using to counter that?


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:37 pm 
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Also, for the record, don't count me among those who want to dump Moss. I'm convinced the LaRoche will be traded before the end of the month. After that, I put Jones at first, Moss and Milledge in the corners and Delwyn Young as the first guy off the bench for the rest of the season. I like Young's bat as well but he's simply too much of a liability in the field to trot him out there everyday.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:43 pm 
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burghermeister wrote:
Animal wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Milledge's defense in LF is not "below average."

He has an "ultimate zone rating" (a measure of range, outs recorded on balls in play, plus factoring in arm strength) of 0.2. That is barely above average, but it is above average, not below.


Have you seen him at Indy yet? Obviously I have not, but his defense in the majors had been below average throughout his career, from what I have seen. He would probably be better in LF than he has been in CF.

Bucfan just cited with statistics that he is slightly above average. What statistics are you using to counter that?


According to BP's FRAA (fielding runs above average), Milledge has been slightly below average in the field for his major league career. Given the precision of current fielding statistics, both UZR and FRAA, I think it's safe to call Milledge average in the field.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:57 pm 
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burghermeister wrote:
Animal wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Milledge's defense in LF is not "below average."

He has an "ultimate zone rating" (a measure of range, outs recorded on balls in play, plus factoring in arm strength) of 0.2. That is barely above average, but it is above average, not below.


Have you seen him at Indy yet? Obviously I have not, but his defense in the majors had been below average throughout his career, from what I have seen. He would probably be better in LF than he has been in CF.

Bucfan just cited with statistics that he is slightly above average. What statistics are you using to counter that?



Well, his career fielding pct in the majors is .984 and in the minors it has been .967. That is pretty substandard.

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:59 pm 
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I like it just the way Burghermeister said - Milledge, Cutch, Moss across the outfield, Jones at first, Young as a bench guy who gets 2 or 3 starts per week.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 4:22 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Well, his career fielding pct in the majors is .984 and in the minors it has been .967. That is pretty substandard.

Fielding percentage is not a good measurement of defense. First, all fielding percentage tells you is how well he handles a ball once he gets to it. It does not tell you anything about the player's fielding range, which is the most important consideration regarding outfielders. Second, fielding percentage is completely subjective, as it is dependent upon whether the scorekeeper thinks the player made an error or not. That judgment can be skewed against players that can get to tough balls but understandably have trouble handling said balls.

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 4:23 pm 
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All of Milledge's MLB defensive ratings are from CF, correct? That is what he has played in the MLB, correct?

If so, then using UZR or any other measure is probably not a good way to figure out his defense.

I look at it this way. We had a bunch of CFer types, of which A McCutch is the best bet, and which had CF in C and LF. Nats had a couple of LFers trying to play CF. The trade makes sense in that way to even out the OF potential and position each player, Milledge in our case, in the best position to be successful.

I would think Milledge in PNC Park LF has a chance to be above average.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 4:35 pm 
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One factor not yet discussed is age. If we are building for the future, that should be included. In two years both Young and Jones will be 30 or near. That does not disqualify them but puts an asterisk next to them in my opinion. If LaRoche is traded and should be, then Jones is younger and could go there. Can he play defense? Can he be even close to LaRoche in the field?

If we go that direction then Moss and Millage are the probable RF and LF in that order. And yes, Young could play a couple days a week replacing each of them once.

I believe JR will not do that. He seems to be very reluctant to play Moss for any amount of consistant time and in my mind won't change. So, he will stay with Young and use Moss as a PH and occassional rest guy. He may say he hasn't given up on him but Moss has not had many ABs in the last 5 or 6 weeks.

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 6:54 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Animal wrote:
Well, his career fielding pct in the majors is .984 and in the minors it has been .967. That is pretty substandard.

Fielding percentage is not a good measurement of defense. First, all fielding percentage tells you is how well he handles a ball once he gets to it. It does not tell you anything about the player's fielding range, which is the most important consideration regarding outfielders. Second, fielding percentage is completely subjective, as it is dependent upon whether the scorekeeper thinks the player made an error or not. That judgment can be skewed against players that can get to tough balls but understandably have trouble handling said balls.



I disagree. Yes, there are many other factors...but his low fielding pct, way below average, shows that he does not handle balls he gets to or has had trouble with throws. It is not the only factor, but fielding pct certainly plays a role.

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:38 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
All of Milledge's MLB defensive ratings are from CF, correct? That is what he has played in the MLB, correct?
ZM

No, UZR is broken down to each outfield position. I posted info about Milledge's UZR for left-field.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:45 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Willton wrote:
Animal wrote:
Well, his career fielding pct in the majors is .984 and in the minors it has been .967. That is pretty substandard.

Fielding percentage is not a good measurement of defense. First, all fielding percentage tells you is how well he handles a ball once he gets to it. It does not tell you anything about the player's fielding range, which is the most important consideration regarding outfielders. Second, fielding percentage is completely subjective, as it is dependent upon whether the scorekeeper thinks the player made an error or not. That judgment can be skewed against players that can get to tough balls but understandably have trouble handling said balls.



I disagree. Yes, there are many other factors...but his low fielding pct, way below average, shows that he does not handle balls he gets to or has had trouble with throws. It is not the only factor, but fielding pct certainly plays a role.


I think for outfielders, fielding percentage is almost totally useless. Let's say you have two outfielders, and you are evaluating the ability of each to get to a ball hit to the track. Player A gets there all of the time, but it hits the heel of his glove and he is charged with an error half the time. Player B never gets there. You'd obviously rather have Player A, despite his vastly inferior fielding percentage, because he is getting you more outs.

Obviously this is a cherry picked hypothetical, but the only two counter-arguments are:

1. Fielding percentage can account for errors on routine plays as well...these just don't happen that often, the 2009 Mets notwithstanding.

2. Fielding percentage can take throwing errors into account...true, but range is a much more important factor for an outfielder than arm.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:53 pm 
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I think it is just as important of a factor as anything else. More often than not if an OF makes a great effort but does not make the play, he is NOT charged with an error. Also, they are not charged with errors on balls they SHOULD have got to but did not.

I would guess that a great majority of the errors by an OF are throwing errors, and the second most is flubbed ground balls. Rarely do you see a guy drop a fly ball.

While it is obviously not the ONLY stat, I believe that fielding pct has its use.

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:57 pm 
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Outfield defense is something that needs to be seen. It includes factors like arm strength, range, ability to get a good jump and to take the proper route to the ball. I would guess that Clemente would not have been considered a great outfielder if the metrics were the only determining factor. Anyone who actually saw him play would know different.


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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:00 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Outfield defense is something that needs to be seen. It includes factors like arm strength, range, ability to get a good jump and to take the proper route to the ball. I would guess that Clemente would not have been considered a great outfielder if the metrics were the only determining factor. Anyone who actually saw him play would know different.



Amen!

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 Post subject: Re: Moss vs Jones vs DYoung vs Milledge.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:25 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
No, UZR is broken down to each outfield position.
I understand that.

Quote:
I posted info about Milledge's UZR for left-field.
I also understand you did do that.

However, I was under the impression that all of Milledge's MLB level experience was as the CF for the Nats. Or, at least the great bulk. If so, then an UZR for LF would be pretty worthless at this point in time... at the MLB level, no?

ZM

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