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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:12 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Thanks for that table, Willton. Printed out a copy for myself and a copy for a coworker.

I wonder, though, if there is a way to calculate the thresholds for the batters on deck and in the hole. In other words, if the batter you are asking to bunt sucks, and the next two guys suck, how much do they have to suck to make a bunt worth it?

Also, lost in all of this is that Young absolutely smoked that ball up the middle. If Hampton doesn't glove it and it deflects into CF, no one is bitching that he should have bunted (yeah, yeah, yeah...IF...well if assholes were airplanes this place would be an airport).

The book raises your point: bunting is a much better strategy when the following hitter is a singles or doubles hitter. This is why it is usually prudent to have the pitcher bunt, as the lead-off hitter is typically a singles or doubles hitter.

Seriously folks, Baseball Between the Numbers is an excellent book to read if you want a greater understanding of the game. It was well worth the $18 I spent to get it 3 years ago.

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:18 pm 
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Willton wrote:
BBF wrote:
Thanks for that table, Willton. Printed out a copy for myself and a copy for a coworker.

I wonder, though, if there is a way to calculate the thresholds for the batters on deck and in the hole. In other words, if the batter you are asking to bunt sucks, and the next two guys suck, how much do they have to suck to make a bunt worth it?

Also, lost in all of this is that Young absolutely smoked that ball up the middle. If Hampton doesn't glove it and it deflects into CF, no one is bitching that he should have bunted (yeah, yeah, yeah...IF...well if assholes were airplanes this place would be an airport).

The book raises your point: bunting is a much better strategy when the following hitter is a singles or doubles hitter. This is why it is usually prudent to have the pitcher bunt, as the lead-off hitter is typically a singles or doubles hitter.

Seriously folks, Baseball Between the Numbers is an excellent book to read if you want a greater understanding of the game. It was well worth the $18 I spent to get it 3 years ago.


When your the pirates every single hitter in the lineup is a singles hitter. That is why you have to bunt.

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 2:48 pm 
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Ryann wrote:
Willton wrote:
BBF wrote:
Thanks for that table, Willton. Printed out a copy for myself and a copy for a coworker.

I wonder, though, if there is a way to calculate the thresholds for the batters on deck and in the hole. In other words, if the batter you are asking to bunt sucks, and the next two guys suck, how much do they have to suck to make a bunt worth it?

Also, lost in all of this is that Young absolutely smoked that ball up the middle. If Hampton doesn't glove it and it deflects into CF, no one is bitching that he should have bunted (yeah, yeah, yeah...IF...well if assholes were airplanes this place would be an airport).

The book raises your point: bunting is a much better strategy when the following hitter is a singles or doubles hitter. This is why it is usually prudent to have the pitcher bunt, as the lead-off hitter is typically a singles or doubles hitter.

Seriously folks, Baseball Between the Numbers is an excellent book to read if you want a greater understanding of the game. It was well worth the $18 I spent to get it 3 years ago.


When your the pirates every single hitter in the lineup is a singles hitter. That is why you have to bunt.

Actually, no, they are not. Garret Jones is not a singles hitter. Adam LaRoche is not a singles hitter. And by singles hitter, I meant GOOD singles hitters, as in one that has a good chance at hitting a single. Low average hitters do not apply.

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 3:38 pm 
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Since when does this site have a time limit for typing responses. I just lost my point-by-point arguments because I am required to log in. That is freaking disappointing.

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 3:55 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Also, lost in all of this is that Young absolutely smoked that ball up the middle. If Hampton doesn't glove it and it deflects into CF, no one is bitching that he should have bunted (yeah, yeah, yeah...IF...well if assholes were airplanes this place would be an airport).


BBF -
At risk of being nitpicky here . . . I'm not "bitching" that he should have bunted. Not even close to it. I only know of one person who is screaming from the moutaintop. My point is and always has been that there is reasonable room for debate here. So many people view this as a black and white issue. Its not. There are lots and lots and lots of shades of grey. Lots of variables. And, dare I say, "intangibles."

I simply raise the point as to why I would have had Young bunting in the first yesterday. That doesn't mean that I think that Nutting is cheap, Huntington makes bad trades or that Russell should be fired. I'm simply pointing out a different strategy and - MOST IMPORTANTLY - why I think that way. I'm not calling anyone an idiot or calling for them to "live in reality" (yeah, that one is directed at Willton) for taking a different position.

You advocate Young hitting away. I've got no problem with that. You take your chances. And last night . . . just as it has for the vast majority of games over the last 3 weeks . . . it didn't work. Doesn't make it right. Doesn't make it wrong. But no one needs to be called an idiot or stupid or have a fundamental lack of understanding of the game if you take the opposite approach.

And, for what its worth, Jim Leyland (who knows a hell of a lot more than me about the game) agrees with the score early approach and he usually has a hitting lineup that is head-and-shoulders better than what was thrown out there last night.

I may go back and retype my previous post if I get over my anger at having it disappear . . . I'm off the charts livid on that right now. Complete waste of my lunch hour.

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Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:07 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
I may go back and retype my previous post if I get over my anger at having it disappear . . . I'm off the charts livid on that right now. Complete waste of my lunch hour.


Been there, done that. I now type responses that are more than a few sentences in either Word or Outlook, that way I can save them for just such an occasion.


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:10 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
At risk of being nitpicky here . . . I'm not "bitching" that he should have bunted.


No. 9-

Should have been more clear- my post wasn't referencing your argument in favor of the bunt. In fact, I, like you, think that reasonable arguments can be made on both sides. I was instead referring to those who claimed that they (paraphrasing here) "have had it with this team" and were "ready to snap" because the sac bunt was not used. Those happen to be the same people (trolls) who tend to be the most inflammatory on the issue.


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:13 pm 
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Do de do de do.. keep on NOT bunting, and keep losing.. Well, this team doesnt' have many players that know how to bunt anyway...


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:55 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
I simply raise the point as to why I would have had Young bunting in the first yesterday. That doesn't mean that I think that Nutting is cheap, Huntington makes bad trades or that Russell should be fired. I'm simply pointing out a different strategy and - MOST IMPORTANTLY - why I think that way. I'm not calling anyone an idiot or calling for them to "live in reality" (yeah, that one is directed at Willton) for taking a different position.

All I'm saying with the "reality" comment is that you're inventing hypotheticals where they don't need to be invented. We have actual results to work with; we don't need to be inventing hypotheticals on what might happen if the game were different. Inventing new run expectation percentages to see if I or anyone else would change our stance on bunting is essentially changing the facts to support a proposition, and I don't see a whole lot of value in doing that. Take the facts as they are, not as how you would like them to be.

Quote:
And, for what its worth, Jim Leyland (who knows a hell of a lot more than me about the game) agrees with the score early approach and he usually has a hitting lineup that is head-and-shoulders better than what was thrown out there last night.

Leyland may like scoring early, but lately his teams have not been very good at it compared to later in the game.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams ... 2009#innng
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams ... 2008#innng

There's nothing wrong with wanting to score early in the game. Where the problem lies is in intentionally giving away outs to do so. Jim Leyland is a fine manager, but it is my belief that he wins in spite of his proclivity to bunt early, not because of it. This is largely because the winning teams he's managed have had very good hitters on it. In contrast, Terry Francona rarely asks his players to bunt as early as the 1st inning, unless the intention is to get on base, and his teams have had little problem scoring early. I imagine Earl Weaver would operate similarly.

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:12 pm 
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My view on the matter:

  • Bunting with runners on first and second makes sense when the batter is a big double play candidate and not that much of a hitter.
  • Neither factor is present with Young hitting left-handed.
  • The bunt is not a positive run producer, per gross statistical analysis.
  • However, the stat analysis does not do justice to the Pirates line-up. I am reminded of the anecdote involving Mark Twain, where he says that a guy with one foot in a bucket of ice and the other in boiling water is, on average, comfortable.
  • What I mean by this is that the Pirates line-up does not have quality hitters up and down the order. The line-up has some very, very mediocre hitters (Vazquez, Pearce, Wilson, Moss).
  • Bunting to stay out of a double play, and to put runners in scoring position with the few good bats coming to the plate, makes more sense for this team than even an average line-up.
  • I understand Wilton's response ("Therefore, this team can less afford to give up outs!!").
  • However, I am of the opinion that McCutchen is a +++ base stealer. Have him run, for shit's sake. What are we afraid of? Getting dosed by Nolasco, Hampton and Warren Spahn on the comeback trail?!?!?
  • Holy shit, batman, that is already happening.
  • Therefore, this crappy group of hitters would likely increase scoring when the garbage hitters bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs, because we have seen them soil the bed dozens of times when allowed to swing away.

So there.


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:01 pm 
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If Hampton doesnt get lucky grabbing that ball, McCutchen scores and the talk would be how Young needs to play more...

Fuck it, lets trade the whole freaking team for Steeler Tickets...

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:54 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
If Hampton doesnt get lucky grabbing that ball, McCutchen scores and the talk would be how Young needs to play more...

Fuck it, lets trade the whole freaking team for Steeler Tickets...

Fuck it, lets just put Brandon Moss batting 3rd!

I think Delwyn should be playing every day.

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:33 pm 
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Ryann wrote:
nad69dan wrote:
If Hampton doesnt get lucky grabbing that ball, McCutchen scores and the talk would be how Young needs to play more...

Fuck it, lets trade the whole freaking team for Steeler Tickets...

Fuck it, lets just put Brandon Moss batting 3rd!

I think Delwyn should be playing every day.


So that he can bunt?

If Young is good enough that you want him to play every day, he is good enough that you shouldn't want to take the bat out of his hands. You certainly aren't putting him in the lineup for his defense.


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:49 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Ryann wrote:
nad69dan wrote:
If Hampton doesnt get lucky grabbing that ball, McCutchen scores and the talk would be how Young needs to play more...

Fuck it, lets trade the whole freaking team for Steeler Tickets...

Fuck it, lets just put Brandon Moss batting 3rd!

I think Delwyn should be playing every day.


So that he can bunt?

If Young is good enough that you want him to play every day, he is good enough that you shouldn't want to take the bat out of his hands. You certainly aren't putting him in the lineup for his defense.


He is a singles hitter. He is not deserving of batting 3rd, and not a power threat. Therefore I would like to see him bunt. And his right field defense isn't bad.

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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:12 pm 
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Alot of good discussions on here, I still just have to agree with bunting Young in that situation against a team who is struggling to score, as well as facing a pitcher who dominates us. While there are 2 sides to this argument I want to thank people who had a logical discussion about it, unlike BBF who just throws everything out in support of a manager who is 9 under... obviously something needs to change in the organization to get this team back to contending.


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:14 pm 
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DoeyDoumit wrote:
unlike BBF who just throws everything out in support of a manager who is 9 under... obviously something needs to change in the organization to get this team back to contending.


That's exactly right. I am a complete imbecile while you remain a shining beacon of rational thought. Thankfully we all have you around to point that out. :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: DEJA VU!!! RUSSELL DOES IT AGAIN!!! WOW
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:40 pm 
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BBF wrote:
DoeyDoumit wrote:
unlike BBF who just throws everything out in support of a manager who is 9 under... obviously something needs to change in the organization to get this team back to contending.


That's exactly right. I am a complete imbecile while you remain a shining beacon of rational thought. Thankfully we all have you around to point that out. :roll:

Is that sarcasm I see? :o

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