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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 2:47 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
Hitting 300 plus is good enough. What do you expect from a second sacker? Almost none have HR power, and Freddy is at or near the top of doubles hitters every year. No offensively he's just fne. He only defeciency is in range at second. He field well and pivots great, he is where he's supposed to be, he husstles. Someone out there is better but no one can say Freddy is the reason we aren't winning.

Three time All-Star ought to say something even on our team. I say keep him and maybe even Jack for a couple more years. Jack has agreed to take less next year if they give him a couple years.

My endorsement means a trade is coming soon for both and Adam too.


This year, no, I can't expect anything more from Freddy. He's the fourth best offensive second baseman in the majors. I just don't want the team to sign him to an extension and have him fall back to 45th, which is where he was last year.

If he were 27, it'd be one thing, because we could probably expect him to keep this up. But he's 31, and his numbers are going to start dropping off. This is especially true of players like him whose success is predicated on their bat speed and who have absolutely no plate patience of which to speak. Vlad Guerrero is providing a fine example of this right now in LA.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 2:59 pm 
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He was still hurt last year.

If you wish to argue the age and injury issues, sure, we can talk about decline.

But, if he is still healthy, no way does he drop anywhere near what you describe.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 3:06 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
He was still hurt last year.

If you wish to argue the age and injury issues, sure, we can talk about decline.

But, if he is still healthy, no way does he drop anywhere near what you describe.

ZM


I'll talk age and susceptibility to injury all day when discussing whether to sign a guy to what would be the Pirates' biggest contract. But even if he does stay healthy, players that are his age start to see a decline in bat speed, and Freddy depends on his bat speed a lot.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 3:06 pm 
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2010
CF - Andrew McCutchen
2B - Freddy Sanchez
LF - Lastings Milledge
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - ??? (I'd advocate a one year reasonable deal for LaRoche) (Alvarez may be a late year call up)
3B - Andy LaRoche
RF - Brandon Moss (Tabata may be a late year call up)
SS - Jack Wilson

2011
CF - Andrew McCutchen
2B - Freddy Sanchez
LF - Lastings Milledge
1B - Pedro Alvarez
RF - Jose Tabata
C - Ryan Doumit
3B - Andy LaRoche
SS - Jack Wilson

With these projected lineups, I have no problem with trying to lock in Wilson and Sanchez through 2011.

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 3:09 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
But even if he does stay healthy, players that are his age start to see a decline in bat speed, and Freddy depends on his bat speed a lot.


Jaybee -
Not to be argumentative, but I think that if there is anyone in the lineup who doesn't rely upon bat speed it is Freddy Sanchez. He is all about contact, putting the ball in play and . . . I don't want to get into the argument again on the issue . . . but watch him over a 10 game span . . . inside out/outside in/dink here/slap there/pulling/pushing . . .

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 3:26 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
jaybee24 wrote:
But even if he does stay healthy, players that are his age start to see a decline in bat speed, and Freddy depends on his bat speed a lot.


Jaybee -
Not to be argumentative, but I think that if there is anyone in the lineup who doesn't rely upon bat speed it is Freddy Sanchez. He is all about contact, putting the ball in play and . . . I don't want to get into the argument again on the issue . . . but watch him over a 10 game span . . . inside out/outside in/dink here/slap there/pulling/pushing . . .


Ok, I am probably using the phrase "bat speed" incorrectly, but I believe the concept is the same. He relies on making good contact at the plate and is almost never going to wait for his pitch. But the hand-eye coordination on which Freddy relies is subject to the same decline that speed and strength are. Not to belabor the example of Vlad, but the guy is notorious for swinging at absolutely everything, and we can see how that is going this year. Factor in susceptibility to injury, and I'm not liking a big money, multi-year signing.

9, the lineups you project for 2010 and 2011 look pretty realistic. For a Freddy signing to be worth it, the team has to be in contention by 2011 so that he can contribute to it. Even assuming he is still hitting well at that point, you're asking a ton from two rookies (Alvarez and Tabata) to put the team into the playoffs. Projecting out to 2012, the young guys will have come along a bit more, but Freddy will be one year older and that much less likely to produce at a high level.

The bottom line is this: our top prospects will most likely be in a position to contribute just as Freddy is hitting his decline. If Freddy is traded and Jack leaves through free agency, it is obvious where the focus of the draft needs to be next year.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 3:30 pm 
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Who says you need to sign Freddy to a deal...Picking up his option buys you time in the offseason and into the 2010 season to find a replacement...

If there is no trade for a SS in place, I'm for trying to lock Jack in for a 2 year deal...

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 3:46 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
2010
CF - Andrew McCutchen
2B - Freddy Sanchez
LF - Lastings Milledge
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - ??? (I'd advocate a one year reasonable deal for LaRoche) (Alvarez may be a late year call up)
3B - Andy LaRoche
RF - Brandon Moss (Tabata may be a late year call up)
SS - Jack Wilson

2011
CF - Andrew McCutchen
2B - Freddy Sanchez
LF - Lastings Milledge
1B - Pedro Alvarez
RF - Jose Tabata
C - Ryan Doumit
3B - Andy LaRoche
SS - Jack Wilson

With these projected lineups, I have no problem with trying to lock in Wilson and Sanchez through 2011.


As I was mowing 2 1/2 acres last week, I was thinking about the 2011 Bucs, and I have the exact same lineup as you, No. 9.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 4:28 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Who says you need to sign Freddy to a deal...Picking up his option buys you time in the offseason and into the 2010 season to find a replacement...

If there is no trade for a SS in place, I'm for trying to lock Jack in for a 2 year deal...


Two reasons I'd argue against letting the club option trigger:

1. If the Pirates have no intention of signing Freddy to a multi-year deal, then he will be traded either this year or next. (You can't let him walk away at the end of next season and have nothing to show for it except a compensatory draft pick.) Since Freddy is having the best offensive season of his career, the Pirates would run an enormous risk of a decline in trade value by keeping him into 2010. In short, I don't believe his trade value will ever be higher.

2. The option is for $8.5 million, which would make Freddy the highest paid player on the team. Resources are scarce for the Pirates, and it would be an enormous waste to spend that type of money on a player when, realistically, the Pirates aren't going anywhere in 2010 either.

There seems to be the sentiment that we need to have Freddy's replacement locked up before we can let him go, and I just don't see it that way. Even if he's worth 5 to 7 wins over the course of a season, an optimistic estimate to be sure, Freddy isn't going to put the 2010 Bucs over the top. So the worst case scenario is that we throw a replacement-level player in his place and lose 95 games next year...who cares? The difference between losing 85 and 95 games is meaningless, and if we get players that can contribute to a World Series run in three years, then I'm fine with sacrificing next year. The point is to win the World Series in the future, not to play .500 ball in 2010.


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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 4:32 pm 
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doug frobel wrote:
As I was mowing 2 1/2 acres last week, I was thinking about the 2011 Bucs, and I have the exact same lineup as you, No. 9.


Hey . . . I'm always advocating that there are "reasons" underlying moves/trades . . . after the last trade, I simply tried to get into NH's head and see what he is seeing. I think the the projected lineups are a pretty good idea of what is bouncing around in NH's head right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:20 pm 
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jaybee24 wrote:
Substitute2 wrote:
Hitting 300 plus is good enough. What do you expect from a second sacker? Almost none have HR power, and Freddy is at or near the top of doubles hitters every year. No offensively he's just fne. He only defeciency is in range at second. He field well and pivots great, he is where he's supposed to be, he husstles. Someone out there is better but no one can say Freddy is the reason we aren't winning.

Three time All-Star ought to say something even on our team. I say keep him and maybe even Jack for a couple more years. Jack has agreed to take less next year if they give him a couple years.

My endorsement means a trade is coming soon for both and Adam too.


This year, no, I can't expect anything more from Freddy. He's the fourth best offensive second baseman in the majors. I just don't want the team to sign him to an extension and have him fall back to 45th, which is where he was last year.

If he were 27, it'd be one thing, because we could probably expect him to keep this up. But he's 31, and his numbers are going to start dropping off. This is especially true of players like him whose success is predicated on their bat speed and who have absolutely no plate patience of which to speak. Vlad Guerrero is providing a fine example of this right now in LA.


I disagree. We are talking 31, not 41. When Freddy has been healthy, he has hit. No reason to expect a decline any time in the near future.

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:36 pm 
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Animal wrote:
jaybee24 wrote:
Substitute2 wrote:
Hitting 300 plus is good enough. What do you expect from a second sacker? Almost none have HR power, and Freddy is at or near the top of doubles hitters every year. No offensively he's just fne. He only defeciency is in range at second. He field well and pivots great, he is where he's supposed to be, he husstles. Someone out there is better but no one can say Freddy is the reason we aren't winning.

Three time All-Star ought to say something even on our team. I say keep him and maybe even Jack for a couple more years. Jack has agreed to take less next year if they give him a couple years.

My endorsement means a trade is coming soon for both and Adam too.


This year, no, I can't expect anything more from Freddy. He's the fourth best offensive second baseman in the majors. I just don't want the team to sign him to an extension and have him fall back to 45th, which is where he was last year.

If he were 27, it'd be one thing, because we could probably expect him to keep this up. But he's 31, and his numbers are going to start dropping off. This is especially true of players like him whose success is predicated on their bat speed and who have absolutely no plate patience of which to speak. Vlad Guerrero is providing a fine example of this right now in LA.


I disagree. We are talking 31, not 41. When Freddy has been healthy, he has hit. No reason to expect a decline any time in the near future.


I wouldnt go anymore than 2 years with Freddy, I still think you pick up his option to buy more time to shop him around next year...

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 8:03 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
If we trade middle infielders and get middle infielders in return, then what's the point? these two are the best DP combo in the league IMHO. I say extend them for 2-3 years. There is no better option....

I'll take a pass on watching Wilson's decline to the .190 range, along with Freddy's upcoming extended forays to the disabled list, all for way more money than either is worth.

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 8:07 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
jaybee24 wrote:
But even if he does stay healthy, players that are his age start to see a decline in bat speed, and Freddy depends on his bat speed a lot.


Jaybee -
Not to be argumentative, but I think that if there is anyone in the lineup who doesn't rely upon bat speed it is Freddy Sanchez. He is all about contact, putting the ball in play and . . . I don't want to get into the argument again on the issue . . . but watch him over a 10 game span . . . inside out/outside in/dink here/slap there/pulling/pushing . . .

I don't agree, No. 9. As time passes he's not going to ba able to wait, wait, wait before he swings, and that will kill him.

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 8:23 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
If we trade middle infielders and get middle infielders in return, then what's the point? these two are the best DP combo in the league IMHO. I say extend them for 2-3 years. There is no better option....

You don't trade them for middle infielders. You trade them for still more pitching, then deal pitching for middle infielders. You'll get a better return that way.

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 Post subject: Re: Giants Asking About Freddy and Adam LaRoche
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 8:57 pm 
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I have no problem with the concept of keeping Jack and Freddy in the short term as a stop gap until we can develop someone to play middle infield, but we absolutely cannot sink $15 mil+ into the 2 of them next year. If Jack takes an extension at a much reduced rate, then I can live with him hitting 8th next year. As for Freddy, I have read nothing that said he was also willing to renegotiate his option (maybe I am wrong), and I'm not sure we can justify his option next year, especially if we can get something for him at the deadline. And put me in the camp that thinks it is more likely than not that he doesn't continue to hit like he is this year for the next 2 years.


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