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 Post subject: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:22 pm 
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We will probably be active at the trading deadline. With McCutchen heating up at Indy there are some interesting stats to consider:

Morgan
April - .307
May - .256

Moss
April - .203
May - .311

There are times when it takes a few times around the league before pitchers figure a guy out. The Pirates had a guy maybe 50 years ago - Dino Restelli - who (paired with Kiner!) just tore up the league one time around, then they figured out he couldn't hit a curve ball and he was gone a month later. You have to wonder about Morgan. What's happening to him may be what happened to a lot of previous "wonders" (Tyke Redman, and on and on).

On the other hand, it's good to see that maybe Moss is figuring things out. I'd rather have that than have things going the other way.

Anyhow, if we wait until July Morgan may well be below the Mendoza line - not that I'm hoping for that. But we might have to wait until July to get another year out of McCutchen. What would you do? Given the trends it looks like a tough problem for Huntington.


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:26 pm 
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Morgan is not going there.

He had a little slump, but has now rebounded back into the .290's. His career is one of slow start, then .290 - .300+.

He should maintain this, especially as he gets to be a better bunter, and gains more confidence at the plate.

He's doing a better job here than McCutcheon is at AAA.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:27 pm 
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McCutchen is starting to heat up... .293 avg, 9 2B's, 8 3B's, 3 HR's, 10 steals...15 BB's, 18 K's

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:36 pm 
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Made a mistake. Meant to give the source for the numbers. I apologize.

First, the stats are at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/roster?team=pit. Click on the player's name, then on Splits to get the info.

Nyger Morgan. Last 7 days - .207.

Brandon Moss. Last 7 days - .286

But, the real question is whether trading Morgan now is the best strategy. There may be a need for a CF somewhere. If we keep him, we're hoping that he will rebound. I'd like it if he did, but ????


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:41 pm 
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Without taking sides (at this point) . . . when can McCutcheon be promoted and not have this year detract from the years that he is eligible for (1) free agency and (2) arbitration?

I thought that it was June 1st.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:47 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Without taking sides (at this point) . . . when can McCutcheon be promoted and not have this year detract from the years that he is eligible for (1) free agency and (2) arbitration?

I thought that it was June 1st.


I thought from what I read as long as he is unable to complete a full 162 game season it doesnt count on his clock...maybe I'm wrong

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:50 pm 
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I'm not real sure. Over at bucsdugout (http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/5/27/890974/andrew-mccutchen-its-time#comments) they were arguing about that. Not sure I really understand it - and there does seem to be a lot of confusion on that.


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 4:52 pm 
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StanRojek wrote:
I'm not real sure. Over at bucsdugout (http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/5/27/890974/andrew-mccutchen-its-time#comments) they were arguing about that. Not sure I really understand it - and there does seem to be a lot of confusion on that.


Sounds like a good submission to DK for the next Q & A session.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 5:00 pm 
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The June date is double secret probation.

Seriously, the June date is another type of arbitration eligible date that is super good for the Pirates.

That said, McCutcheon hasn't done much to show he should displace Nyger at this point. I can see where he is more talented, but 7 days, or 25 ABs isn't what you are looking for.

When McCutch starts to dominate and keep dominating, then he will come up.

For Pete's sake, Nyger has been good.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 5:02 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
I thought from what I read as long as he is unable to complete a full 162 game season it doesnt count on his clock...maybe I'm wrong

You are correct, Dan, but the problem is the "super two" for certain players with minimum time with the big league club. (September time is excluded, by the way, since rosters can be expanded.)

The rule provides in part:

Free Agency and Arbitration
MLB players cannot choose their employer until they have reached six full years of Major League service time, at which point they can declare free agency. At that point, they are free to sign with whomever they wish.

Prior to the six years of service time, players are bound to whichever team controls their rights. During this period, there is a cutoff date in the winter at which the controlling team can offer or not offer a contract to the player. For the first three years, the team usually offers a contract at or slightly above the major-league minimum (roughly $300,000). However, there are some measures built into the six-year period that increase the players' earning potential: this is called salary arbitration.

Most players become eligible for arbitration after three full years of service team ("Super Two" players, as noted below, are an exception). ...

"Super Two" Players
A player is classified as a Super Two and is eligible for arbitration provided he:

1) Has at least two but less than three years of Major League service time,
2) Has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season, and
3) Ranks in the top 17 percent in total service time among all MLB Players who meet the above two criteria

http://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index ... rbitration

Pirates are concerned that McCutchen will be among the top 17 percent in total service time if they bring him up before June.

Hopes this provides some further information.


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 5:14 pm 
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Many thanks for the clarification. Now if I can just somehow understand the legalese.


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 5:25 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Morgan is not going there.

He had a little slump, but has now rebounded back into the .290's. His career is one of slow start, then .290 - .300+.

He should maintain this, especially as he gets to be a better bunter, and gains more confidence at the plate.

He's doing a better job here than McCutcheon is at AAA.

ZM



I agree ZM. Morgan slumped, just like everybody does. When he is going, he is a big asset. He can do things that very few Pirate prospects can do. He already has shown signs of getting out of the slump. Why is everyone so convinced that McCutchen will come out and outplay everybody. I have been saying for years that he has played okay, but has not torn up the minor leagues. He has done nothing yet to earn a promotion over Nyjer, Moss or McLouth.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 5:27 pm 
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ZelieMike:

I'm not arguing that Morgan hasn't been good. He's been way better than most expected in Spring Training. But, somebody has to make a judgment whether or not he will continue that way. You expect him to continue to be good. That's your judgment and I hope you're right. But it's not a 100% certainty, and somebody (Huntington I guess) has to ponder how this might go and try to figure out whether to keep him or not.

I really don't know what I would do. It's a hard decision. But, if the return is really good it might be wise to trade him - depending upon how you read all that legalese regarding McCutch's situation and how you think McCutchen will work out.

After all that's been said in this thread I'm glad it's not my job to figure it out.


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 5:30 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
The June date is double secret probation.

Seriously, the June date is another type of arbitration eligible date that is super good for the Pirates.

That said, McCutcheon hasn't done much to show he should displace Nyger at this point. I can see where he is more talented, but 7 days, or 25 ABs isn't what you are looking for.

When McCutch starts to dominate and keep dominating, then he will come up.

For Pete's sake, Nyger has been good.

ZM


ZM -
Can't disagree with you about Nyjer. In my eyes, he's done nothing on the field which justifies a demotion. Similarly, I'm not sure that McCutcheon's body of work this year at AAA screams "promote me." Where I struggle on this is essentially . . . is there any value to proving McCutcheon with 2/3 of a season of experience before next year? Should he be allowed to "cut his teeth" now as opposed to next year?
In fact, I could make an argument that McCutcheon's promotion may end up hurting the Bucs in the short term if it means Nyjer sits on the bench.
I really do see both sides of the equation having merit here and I don't see there being any easy answers. And, for what it is worth, that is why one of my preseason wishes was for Nyjer to play well enough to keep the Bucs competitive but not well enough to keep Cutch on the farm as of June 1.
I see it as a real difficult question to answer.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:13 pm 
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If I had to guess, I would suspect that in July, Laroche gets traded (SALARY DUMP! QUALITY DEPTH! THE TRUTH!), Moss moves to 1st, and McCutchen comes up.

Pearce may also enter the 1B picture around that time as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:14 pm 
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I don't think it all that hard.

It is easy to see that McCutch is the most talented of all Pirate outfielders not named Tabata.

When his performance at AAA shows he is dominating play in all facets of the game, you promote and play him.

The only way it doesn't work out that way in ZM-world, is if one of the OF'ers now simply fail and gives him an opening to ripen up here at MLB.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:20 pm 
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The other night on Rocco's post game show he talked to the radio guy from Indy and they compared Pearce to Cerrano from Major League...

Then played the audio clip of him talking about not hitting the curve ball...

Quote:
Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats. I offer him cigar, rum. He will come.

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I say keep the $50 and ban him anyway...

For those jumping ship, we'll keep the bandwagon warm for you...


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:25 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
It is easy to see that McCutch is the most talented of all Pirate outfielders not named Tabata.

Well, I don't know about that but I do know that Tabata is clearly the most talented of all Pirate outfielders who is named Tabata. McCutcheon doesn't even make the top two in that category.

Seriously, I'd bring McCutcheon up as soon as you're 100% certain that the super 2 date has passed. If you're committed to him being a part of the starting outfield from day one next year, why not bring him up and get him the experience?


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:31 pm 
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burghermeister wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
It is easy to see that McCutch is the most talented of all Pirate outfielders not named Tabata.

Well, I don't know about that but I do know that Tabata is clearly the most talented of all Pirate outfielders who is named Tabata. McCutcheon doesn't even make the top two in that category.

Seriously, I'd bring McCutcheon up as soon as you're 100% certain that the super 2 date has passed. If you're committed to him being a part of the starting outfield from day one next year, why not bring him up and get him the experience?


I just hope McCutchen doesnt hang out with Snell much or he might change his name to Tabata...

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I say keep the $50 and ban him anyway...

For those jumping ship, we'll keep the bandwagon warm for you...


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 Post subject: Re: Trade Deadline - Strategy?
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:49 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Pirates are concerned that McCutchen will be among the top 17 percent in total service time if they bring him up before June.

Hopes this provides some further information.


To add to this fantastic breakdown of the rule, I would just mention that people have examined this issue and found that if you play fewer than 130 games, you are generally safe from super 2 status. Having just passed that benchmark, you are seeing the Weiters, Fernando Martinez's etc. get the call. I would say that from this point on it is not a concern for McCutchen.


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