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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:33 pm 
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If the Pirates had a 5th starter who has shown he can win, then I'd be more OK with making sure he gets his turn. But they don't, so I'd rather the decent pitchers get their turns and use the 5th guy when you need him. That's not an unprecedented approach.

Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 2:01 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
If the Pirates had a 5th starter who has shown he can win, then I'd be more OK with making sure he gets his turn. But they don't, so I'd rather the decent pitchers get their turns and use the 5th guy when you need him. That's not an unprecedented approach.

The Pirates hardly have a 3rd or 4th starter who has shown he can win. What makes our 5th starter so much different from Duke and Gorzo right now?

Mayor Mystery wrote:
Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.

Years ago pitchers threw with less effort and from a higher mound than now. There's a giant difference between the pitching conditions during the dead-ball era and now. It's not an apt comparison.

I concur with the above-stated reasons for not skipping Dumatrait. In theory, skipping the 5th starter probably would increase the team's chances of winning. But with the 2008 Pirates, I don't think that's the case.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 2:20 pm 
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The higher mound was not easier to throw off, in terms of arm health. It was harder to hit from because of the downward plane of the ball, but it ruined arms.

That is why all current medical studies regarding pitching are recommending lowering the mound more, and at a minimum, having pitchers "between sessions" be done on flat ground (like Andrews is doing right now).

I would posit that the reason for the success of 4 man rotations before was simply the end product of a more rigorous training regime caused by more players, playing at an earlier age and longer, on fewer teams that allowed only the very strongest and most durable to arrive at the MLB.

The 4-man rotation everyone wants was merely the end result of a devastating natural selection process.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:20 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
If the Pirates had a 5th starter who has shown he can win, then I'd be more OK with making sure he gets his turn. But they don't, so I'd rather the decent pitchers get their turns and use the 5th guy when you need him. That's not an unprecedented approach.

Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.


Years ago guys arms fell off all the time. You could fill PNC park with pitcher's whose arms fell off many times over. The survivors who went on to long careers are by far the exception, not the rule, and most of them battled arm troubles at some time or another.

I'm not opposed to a four man rotation in principle. The problem is that the Pirates currently have a rotation full of fairly young pitchers with suspect health or poor performance except for Snell, and Snell's velocity is down this year. On top of that, they have all come up in a system that prepared them for a five man rotation, and, more importantly, prepared for this season with the same assumption. 32 or 33 starts are enough for any young pitcher.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:31 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.


Something tells me you are a big fan of Dusty Baker. Trust me, we all want to win every game we play. But its what you do over the long haul that determines how successful you are. Sure, skipping Dumatrait is a good move to put you in a position to win THAT game, but when Snell hits the DL in late August from overuse (hypothetically speaking) and we have both Dumatrait AND Bullington in the rotation, it ends up hurting more than it helped.


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:53 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


Because you'd prefer not to have your best guys' arms fall off before the end of the season. I especially support sticking to the rotation when I see the troubles Gorzelanny and Duke are having, not to mention the fact that I rarely see Snell hitting 92 on the gun this year.


I heard, I believe it was on Ellis Cannon's show, Huntington saying theres been problems with the PNC Radar Gun and was measuring upto 4 MPH less than the actual reading...

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 8:01 pm 
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Let Phil try...this way we're not waiting 10 days to see if he is a stop-gap for a while or if Neal needs to get on the phone and find someone...this way if a deal needs to be made it can be done quick

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:55 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


Because you'd prefer not to have your best guys' arms fall off before the end of the season. I especially support sticking to the rotation when I see the troubles Gorzelanny and Duke are having, not to mention the fact that I rarely see Snell hitting 92 on the gun this year.


I heard, I believe it was on Ellis Cannon's show, Huntington saying theres been problems with the PNC Radar Gun and was measuring upto 4 MPH less than the actual reading...


That doesn't explain his lack of velocity in Chicago. I know he didn't pitch well tonight, but did anybody hear any radar numbers?

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:56 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Let Phil try...this way we're not waiting 10 days to see if he is a stop-gap for a while or if Neal needs to get on the phone and find someone...this way if a deal needs to be made it can be done quick


You think that one start will tell you that?

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:38 pm 
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Combined with some of his relief work and this one start is a step in the process...If he comes out in this 1st start and totally bombs, you know its time to find a replacement very very soon...if he pitches ok or higher, you got some more time to worry about that spot...

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:54 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Combined with some of his relief work and this one start is a step in the process...If he comes out in this 1st start and totally bombs, you know its time to find a replacement very very soon...if he pitches ok or higher, you got some more time to worry about that spot...


If he comes out of his start with an ERA better than Gorzo's, should we then take Gorzo out of the rotation? One start just isn't enough.

In your support, we do have his six starts with the Reds last year. On the other, we have his minor league performance. I'd give him a pass on last year based on rookie nerves and give him at least as many starts as Morris had. It's not like Indianapolis is loaded with hot prospects who are breathing down his neck.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:09 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
nad69dan wrote:
Combined with some of his relief work and this one start is a step in the process...If he comes out in this 1st start and totally bombs, you know its time to find a replacement very very soon...if he pitches ok or higher, you got some more time to worry about that spot...


If he comes out of his start with an ERA better than Gorzo's, should we then take Gorzo out of the rotation? One start just isn't enough.

In your support, we do have his six starts with the Reds last year. On the other, we have his minor league performance. I'd give him a pass on last year based on rookie nerves and give him at least as many starts as Morris had. It's not like Indianapolis is loaded with hot prospects who are breathing down his neck.


I guess what I mean is, one start will give you an idea if he is ready for that spot...He can still have a bad game and show signs he's there, but if he flat comes out and bombs and does nothing at all right, its time to search the Yellow Pages for Pitching...

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:27 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
If he comes out of his start with an ERA better than Gorzo's, should we then take Gorzo out of the rotation? One start just isn't enough.

I guess what I mean is, one start will give you an idea if he is ready for that spot...He can still have a bad game and show signs he's there, but if he flat comes out and bombs and does nothing at all right, its time to search the Yellow Pages for Pitching...

Fair point. Dumatrait's pitching does not have to be evaluated only by looking at the results.

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