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 Post subject: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 12:39 pm 
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In the past, several posters have pointed out a statistic known as Expected Wins/Expected Losses which, from what I can tell, is a function of Runs Scored versus Runs Allowed.

In any event, my perusal of MLB.com this morning revealed that the Bucs' EW/EL was 16-16. That compares favorably to the rest of the league.

For the statistically driven, does that give you hope?

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 1:01 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
In the past, several posters have pointed out a statistic known as Expected Wins/Expected Losses which, from what I can tell, is a function of Runs Scored versus Runs Allowed.

In any event, my perusal of MLB.com this morning revealed that the Bucs' EW/EL was 16-16. That compares favorably to the rest of the league.

For the statistically driven, does that give you hope?

Hope for ... what? Contending this season? Reaching .500 by September? Sucking less than we did last year?

Our Pythagorean record basically tells me that we should be better than our current 13-19 record, but it is far too early in the season to be drawing such conclusions. We've played less than a quarter of the season.

In any event, I've already written off the season as a loser. I'm more concerned with individual performances at this point, both at the minor and major league level.

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 1:09 pm 
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Wilton, that may be the facts for the season, but I plan to continue to support the team each and every night. One game at a time.

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 1:11 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
Wilton, that may be the facts for the season, but I plan to continue to support the team each and every night. One game at a time.


I dont think Wilton meant he isnt rooting for them to win, just that he isnt expecting them to challenge for a playoff spot...

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 1:12 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Our Pythagorean record basically tells me that we should be better than our current 13-19 record, but it is far too early in the season to be drawing such conclusions. We've played less than a quarter of the season.


Serious question here . . . at what point in the season does the "sample size" become significant?

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 1:21 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Willton wrote:
Our Pythagorean record basically tells me that we should be better than our current 13-19 record, but it is far too early in the season to be drawing such conclusions. We've played less than a quarter of the season.


Serious question here . . . at what point in the season does the "sample size" become significant?

Maybe 50-60 games, maybe more. I'm not sure. What I do know is that when a team's record is worse than its Pythag record, it's usually because they've lost an abnormally high number of 1-run games or won an abnormally high number of blowouts. Because I don't think either scenario has happened, I don't think it's fair to draw a judgment based on what we have seen thus far.

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 1:24 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Substitute2 wrote:
Wilton, that may be the facts for the season, but I plan to continue to support the team each and every night. One game at a time.


I dont think Wilton meant he isnt rooting for them to win, just that he isnt expecting them to challenge for a playoff spot...

Correct. I'd love to see the Pirates win, but I'm holding no hope for it to happen this season. What I'm really looking for is player improvement, particularly from our younger players that have room to grow (LaRoche Jr, Jaramillo, Ohlendorf, Alvarez, McCutchen, etc.).

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 4:11 pm 
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I'm right there with you on player development. But it still gives me a charge when the team wins, so I still hope that happens every night.

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2009 5:16 pm 
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If the top four pitchers continue to turn in a majority of quality starts, this team can be competitive all year long.

Will it go anywhere? Probably not. But competing, along with some good individual performances, could set the stage for better things down the road.

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 Post subject: Re: A statistical analysis; optimism?
PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2009 6:48 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If the top four pitchers continue to turn in a majority of quality starts, this team can be competitive all year long.

Will it go anywhere? Probably not. But competing, along with some good individual performances, could set the stage for better things down the road.


We have had a big problem with when players have a good year, the next year they can't come close to matching their numbers. It seems to be the bullpen this year. Everybody that we could count on last season has been shaky this season.


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