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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 1:34 pm 
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Smizik must just think its easy to go sign an Albert Pujols from the free agent list every year...

An article about not signing Sano on his blog...

Quote:
As far as warning signs, no one need look any further than the Pirates inability to evaluate young talent in the recent past. Although they have been dealing with players 18 and older, they have been largely incorrect in their evaluations. Of the 16 first-round draft choices the Pirates have made since they took Jason Kendall in 1992, Paul Maholm has been the most and, arguably, only successful pick. Behind Maholm would be Kris Benson and then Sean Burnett. Of course, the jury is still out on some of the more recent picks but even among those only Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez look to have significant upside.


Quote:
If talent evaluators can’t get the No. 1 pick, often college-age players, right, how can they be expected to expertly evaluate a 16 year old?
Signing Sano would be a major public-relations coup for the Pirates and a large step foward in the talent-rich Dominican.
But to spend $4 million on a 16-year-old kid, well, that sounds like something the Pirates of Dave Littlefield would do.


http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs ... -sano.aspx

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 1:44 pm 
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Watch for his follow up article, probably already written, for when the Pirates fail to sign Sano, titled "Pirates Refuse to Spend Money in Latin America".

As I said, it is his job to be critical, not to be knowledgeable. He does his job just fine, but he doesn't understand a damn thing about major league baseball.


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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 1:45 pm 
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What an absolute putz.

Ignoring a player reportedly as talented at Sano, is what DL did do.

Trying to somehow, equate today's organzational evaluations to the previous regimes is also a patently ridiculous statement.

You want to suggest that the current regime cannot effectively evaluate, go ahead and show how. Don't simply lump NH with Camaroonies.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 1:47 pm 
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I wouldnt even have read it if Dejan didnt put the link in his blog...

I wonder how much trouble he'd get in if he forgot who Smizik is?

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 1:54 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
What an absolute putz.

Ignoring a player reportedly as talented at Sano, is what DL did do.

Trying to somehow, equate today's organzational evaluations to the previous regimes is also a patently ridiculous statement.

You want to suggest that the current regime cannot effectively evaluate, go ahead and show how. Don't simply lump NH with Camaroonies.

ZM


I agree that $4M is an awfully steep price to pay for a kid that is 16 years old. However, one thing that Smizik wrote jumped out at me. Something to the effect of giving the Pirates instant credibility in the DR. Consequently, I wouldn't look at the $4M as just an investment in this kid. I'd look at is as (1) an investment in what looks to be a great talent; (2) a necessary follow-up to the new DR facility; (3) "buying" credibility when it has apparently been lacking for years. If it doesn't pan out . . . well, that sucks. But, at least you have a first rate facility and you've essentially identified yourself as a "player" in the DR market. If Sano isn't the next Pujols, maybe you'll get the next one.

Again, steep price but probably a necessary one.

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 3:11 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Alexandria Dukes wrote:
I would also suspect Dunn's trade value would be higher at this point.


I'll raise the point that I did during the CIA invasion . . . if no team was willing to meet Dunn's contract demands in free agency when they would not have to give up any players in return . . . why would any team take on Dunn's contract in a trade which would now require them to give up key prospects?

Oh, I'm not saying teams will be lining up and offering key prospects for Dunn at the trade deadline. Only suggesting his trade value is higher than LaRoche's. LaRoche will likely be gone after this year, leaving the Pirates with nothing. Perhaps they trade him, but the return will be less than what the Nats can likely get for Dunn. But it will be interesting to see what a team like San Francisco does should they be in it in July. 1st base for them has been dead. Or what if Delgado isn't able to come back from his injury, do the Mets look to acquire another 1st baseman?


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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 3:24 pm 
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Based on historical players response, I will disagree that Dunn will be worth more.

I believe Dunn is on a one-year contract, right? If so...

The historical play of Dunn in the second half vis a vis La Roche, is no comparison. If I'm San Fran or a Delgado-less NYM, I want the "Second Half" La Roche in my lineup for a rental period. Not "I don't give a hoot" Dunn and the bumbling glove show.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 3:55 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Based on historical players response, I will disagree that Dunn will be worth more.

I believe Dunn is on a one-year contract, right? If so...

The historical play of Dunn in the second half vis a vis La Roche, is no comparison. If I'm San Fran or a Delgado-less NYM, I want the "Second Half" La Roche in my lineup for a rental period. Not "I don't give a hoot" Dunn and the bumbling glove show.

ZM


Dunn signed for 2 years...

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 5:30 pm 
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Alexandria Dukes wrote:
Oh, I'm not saying teams will be lining up and offering key prospects for Dunn at the trade deadline. Only suggesting his trade value is higher than LaRoche's. LaRoche will likely be gone after this year, leaving the Pirates with nothing. Perhaps they trade him, but the return will be less than what the Nats can likely get for Dunn. But it will be interesting to see what a team like San Francisco does should they be in it in July. 1st base for them has been dead. Or what if Delgado isn't able to come back from his injury, do the Mets look to acquire another 1st baseman?


I don't think that trade value comparison is an easy answer.

Option #1: Trade for Adam Dunn, pay the remainder of this years $10M contract and be "on the hook" for next years $10M contract.

Option #2: Trade for Adam LaRoche, pay the remainder of this years $7.5M (or is it $8.5M) contract.

I'll submit that you have a better chance of getting HR/RBI/OBP from Dunn but, if all goes according to the past, LaRoche should put up good numbers down the stretch. So . . . . is the massive amount that you will be paying Dunn over 1.5 years make it worth trading for him versus LaRoche?

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 6:05 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Alexandria Dukes wrote:
Oh, I'm not saying teams will be lining up and offering key prospects for Dunn at the trade deadline. Only suggesting his trade value is higher than LaRoche's. LaRoche will likely be gone after this year, leaving the Pirates with nothing. Perhaps they trade him, but the return will be less than what the Nats can likely get for Dunn. But it will be interesting to see what a team like San Francisco does should they be in it in July. 1st base for them has been dead. Or what if Delgado isn't able to come back from his injury, do the Mets look to acquire another 1st baseman?


I don't think that trade value comparison is an easy answer.

Option #1: Trade for Adam Dunn, pay the remainder of this years $10M contract and be "on the hook" for next years $10M contract.

Option #2: Trade for Adam LaRoche, pay the remainder of this years $7.5M (or is it $8.5M) contract.

I'll submit that you have a better chance of getting HR/RBI/OBP from Dunn but, if all goes according to the past, LaRoche should put up good numbers down the stretch. So . . . . is the massive amount that you will be paying Dunn over 1.5 years make it worth trading for him versus LaRoche?

I just looked up their respective stats and LaRoche is the slightly better second half hitter. But I think it boils down to what it is the team looking to acquire either Dunn or LaRoche is looking for. If they are only looking for a two month rental, then LaRoche would possibly be the more attractive player. Not only does he hit better, but the team wouldn't be on the hook for the 12 million owed Dunn in 2010. But if the team is interested in a 1st baseman for the remainder of this year and 2010, Dunn would be the better option.

It will be interesting to see the returns should both get dealt this coming July.


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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 6:15 pm 
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A lot of D Back fans wish they still had Dunn with the ineptitude of the D Back offense.


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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 6:17 pm 
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Alexandria Dukes wrote:
I just looked up their respective stats and LaRoche is the slightly better second half hitter. But I think it boils down to what it is the team looking to acquire either Dunn or LaRoche is looking for. If they are only looking for a two month rental, then LaRoche would possibly be the more attractive player. Not only does he hit better, but the team wouldn't be on the hook for the 12 million owed Dunn in 2010. But if the team is interested in a 1st baseman for the remainder of this year and 2010, Dunn would be the better option.
It will be interesting to see the returns should both get dealt this coming July.


The part that I bolded is what I think is the key. One, is Dunn a legitimate 1Bman? Two, who is going to want to trade for him when they weren't willing to pay him in free agency.

I'm not saying that LaRoche could get a better return. If I'm negotiating against Huntington, I remind him that LaRoche is simply a two month rental and that Huntington needs to get something for someone who won't be resigned (ie; Rod's definition of "salary dump").

If I'm negotiating against the Nat's GM, I remind him that he's paying Dunn $12M a year for a team that may lose 110 games and that - if you want me to take that salary off his hands - I'm not throwing anything else worthwhile on top.

Given LaRoche's impending free agency, I think that his trade value will be down; given Dunn's massive contract and other teams' refusal to bite at that price with free agency, I think that his trade value will be down as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 7:18 pm 
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In a vacuum, that would be true.

In a pennant race between the Mets and Braves? Or a between San Fran and LA? Or, with 5 Divisions throughout BB up for grabs in bigger, splashier markets?

I'm banking NH could pull something worthwhile out of that kind of scenario, given LaRoches 2nd half numbers.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 8:40 pm 
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Dunn is no good at 1st base, he showed that in the World Baseball Classic and when the Reds got Scott Hatteberg to play 1st...

plus Dunn during the offseason stated he didn't want to be a regular 1st baseman...

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 10:58 pm 
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Charlie comments on the wisdom of Smizik's view of Sano, and I have to say I agree:
Quote:
Leaving aside the question of whether a sportswriter who consistently misses the boat on just about everything has any business questioning "talent evaluators," the problem here is that the Pirates don't need to be certain that Sano will play in the big leagues for him to be a good investment. If they did, no one would ever sign draft picks or Latin American amateurs. Or veterans. No investment in the future is certain.

The issue is the chance that he'll be successful. If the Pirates pay Sano $4 million, it is certainly true that he could discover American food and gain 100 pounds, or never adjust to American culture, or simply never get better, and if any of those things happened the Pirates would get nothing for that $4 million. But the Bucs have to weigh that possibility against the chance that Sano will become a star in the majors, in which case they'll be able to pay him far below market value for six years. If that happened, the Pirates would get as much as a tenfold return on their initial investment of $4 million.

Smizik is obviously right that the Pirates should be cautious here. But this is the same person who argued last year that Xavier Nady should be given an extension, presumably for far more than $4 million. His risk-reward calibrator is obviously way out of whack. Veterans aren't automatically safe bets, and risky bets aren't automatically bad ones.

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/5/18/878 ... avoid-sano

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 Post subject: Re: Smizik Is At It Again
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2009 12:09 am 
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Willton wrote:
Charlie comments on the wisdom of Smizik's view of Sano, and I have to say I agree:

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/5/18/878 ... avoid-sano

That is a good observation on the risk vs. reward. The question that the Pirates have of their scouts is the following: "Is Sano a middle of the order, power guy?" If yes, then his arm and apparent future in RF make him a multi-million dollar player.

Those type of players get more than $4 million per year, let alone for 6 years.


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