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 Post subject: Multiplying by 6
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2009 11:19 am 
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We're 27 games into the season, exactly one sixth of the way done. Time to multiply by six and project out some full season numbers.

First off the most important numbers: 72-90 record for your Battlin' Bucs

Now some individual stats. Here are a few for the hitters (only did calculations for regulars - cutoff of 70 AB):

    Morgan: 204 hits, 12 doubles, 12 triples, 60 BB, 42 SB, 72 RBI
    Sanchez: 216 hits, 78 doubles, 12 triples, 18 HR, 24 BB, 60 RBI
    McLouth: 102 RBI, 24 HR, 6 doubles, 18 SB
    Ad LaRoche: 30 HR, 162 SO, 84 RBI
    An LaRoche: 6 HR, 66 RBI, 48 doubles
    Moss: 0 HR, 18 RBI

And the pitchers:

    Maholm: 18-0
    Ohlendorf: 18-12
    Duke: 18-18
    Snell: 6-24
    Karstens: 6-6

    Capps: 0-12, 30 Saves, 6 BS

Obviously some of these are still skewed significantly by sample size but I think there's some interesting nuggets in there as well. Thoughts?


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 Post subject: Re: Multiplying by 6
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2009 11:48 am 
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Freddy with 78 Doubles would be exciting...

But I think once the weather warms up some of them Doubles will be Dingers...

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 Post subject: Re: Multiplying by 6
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2009 12:33 pm 
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Burghermeister

There are lots of ways of predicting. You could plot Morgan's average and extend it to see when it goes negative, for example. As each week goes by it seems to get lower. Don't really want to rain on your parade, but there are some - and Morgan is the prime candidate - that I don't expect to continue at the current rate. And, I don't want to start plotting trends of the ERAs of the staff. I'm going to be surprised if Morgan is hitting anywhere near .300 by July 1. I'd be real happy if he did surprise me, but I'm not hopeful.

On the other hand, there are some optimistic thoughts in your idea, and we need that right now. Thanks.


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 Post subject: Re: Multiplying by 6
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2009 1:55 pm 
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StanRojek wrote:
Burghermeister

There are lots of ways of predicting. You could plot Morgan's average and extend it to see when it goes negative, for example. As each week goes by it seems to get lower. Don't really want to rain on your parade, but there are some - and Morgan is the prime candidate - that I don't expect to continue at the current rate. And, I don't want to start plotting trends of the ERAs of the staff. I'm going to be surprised if Morgan is hitting anywhere near .300 by July 1. I'd be real happy if he did surprise me, but I'm not hopeful.

On the other hand, there are some optimistic thoughts in your idea, and we need that right now. Thanks.

Well I'm not marching in a parade so rain away. I think there are as many negative numbers as positive in what I posted. I'm just putting the numbers out there as one more data point.


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