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 Post subject: Re: The elephant in the room
PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:54 pm 
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Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:26 pm
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I and a co-worker have spent a great deal of time trying to determine the value of BABIP, both in regards to a pitcher's success and a hitter's success. We've reached the same conclusions as most here: the stat isn't very helpful unless you understand WHY the hits are falling in- are they being crushed in the gaps or dribbling under the gloves of bad middle infielders. The GB:FB ratio is an important consideration, but I'd like to make another recommendation: ISO. If your pitcher has a bad BABIP and a good ISO against, maybe you can expect his numbers to improve. If he has a bad BABIP and a high ISO against, well, he's probably getting hit hard. Obviously, for hitters a low BABIP and low ISO means you ain't hitting, a low BABIP and high ISO suggests things will start falling in for you soon.

I'd like to hear what others think of this combination. It seems almost too obvious a connection, so I must be overlooking something.


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 Post subject: Re: The elephant in the room
PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:00 am 
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Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:18 pm
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Location: Scotch Plains, NJ
BBF wrote:
I and a co-worker have spent a great deal of time trying to determine the value of BABIP, both in regards to a pitcher's success and a hitter's success. We've reached the same conclusions as most here: the stat isn't very helpful unless you understand WHY the hits are falling in- are they being crushed in the gaps or dribbling under the gloves of bad middle infielders. The GB:FB ratio is an important consideration, but I'd like to make another recommendation: ISO. If your pitcher has a bad BABIP and a good ISO against, maybe you can expect his numbers to improve. If he has a bad BABIP and a high ISO against, well, he's probably getting hit hard. Obviously, for hitters a low BABIP and low ISO means you ain't hitting, a low BABIP and high ISO suggests things will start falling in for you soon.

I'd like to hear what others think of this combination. It seems almost too obvious a connection, so I must be overlooking something.

Actually, line drive percentage has the best correlation as to what a hitter BABIP should be. See the link below:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... uld-speak/

_________________
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
~H. L. Mencken


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 Post subject: Re: The elephant in the room
PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 3:03 am 
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Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 5:32 pm
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Location: Darlington, Pennsylvania
Just looking over this topic you can tell today was an off day :lol:


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