Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:06 am

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 11 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 8:32 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:39 pm
Posts: 96
I will take it if this team can play .500 or around there on the road. Key is winning at home...series against the Astros hoping to take 2 if not sweep them. The Braves seem to be on a role, but they played the Nationals, and then the Marlins. I would like a 6-3 or 5-4 homestand.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 9:02 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 5:10 pm
Posts: 384
DoeyDoumit wrote:
I will take it if this team can play .500 or around there on the road. Key is winning at home...series against the Astros hoping to take 2 if not sweep them. The Braves seem to be on a role, but they played the Nationals, and then the Marlins. I would like a 6-3 or 5-4 homestand.


"This ball club will be in alot of close games, and if we can win our share of them, we'll be fine..."------Quote repeated during April and May of every year since 1999 by Bob Walk.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 11:34 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 11:28 pm
Posts: 2169
Here is my prediction for the next series.
1-2
0-3
2-1
2-1

_________________
0 straight losing seasons


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 11:40 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:18 pm
Posts: 5060
Location: Scotch Plains, NJ
Ryann wrote:
Here is my prediction for the next series.
1-2
0-3
2-1
2-1

Not one blowout, eh? You're giving the Bucs' pitching (and the Astros' pitching for that matter) too much credit.

_________________
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
~H. L. Mencken


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:46 am 
Offline
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:59 am
Posts: 385
Location: Elizabeth, PA
Well I may as well throw in my .02. Here are my predictions for the rest of the month

Houston: 3-0
Atlanta: 1-2
Florida: 1-2
San Diego: 2-1
Milwaukee: 1-2
Total: 8-7

Final April record 11-10, one game above .500. Not a bad start. I just cannot expect a win in any game Snell starts. I feel comfortable with Maholm, Duke, and Ohlendorf.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 9:19 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:45 pm
Posts: 1296
Location: Bowie, Md
Rod Serling wrote:
DoeyDoumit wrote:
I will take it if this team can play .500 or around there on the road. Key is winning at home...series against the Astros hoping to take 2 if not sweep them. The Braves seem to be on a role, but they played the Nationals, and then the Marlins. I would like a 6-3 or 5-4 homestand.


"This ball club will be in alot of close games, and if we can win our share of them, we'll be fine..."------Quote repeated during April and May of every year since 1999 by Bob Walk.


A sign of a good team is one that can win the close games on a consistent basis. A variation of this quote is said by virtually every announcer in the league about their respective teams because it is the truth.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 1:43 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 11:28 pm
Posts: 2169
Willton wrote:
Ryann wrote:
Here is my prediction for the next series.
1-2
0-3
2-1
2-1

Not one blowout, eh? You're giving the Bucs' pitching (and the Astros' pitching for that matter) too much credit.


No I met like real series such as the astros atlanta ect...

_________________
0 straight losing seasons


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:46 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:18 pm
Posts: 5060
Location: Scotch Plains, NJ
Piratefan13 wrote:
Rod Serling wrote:
DoeyDoumit wrote:
I will take it if this team can play .500 or around there on the road. Key is winning at home...series against the Astros hoping to take 2 if not sweep them. The Braves seem to be on a role, but they played the Nationals, and then the Marlins. I would like a 6-3 or 5-4 homestand.


"This ball club will be in alot of close games, and if we can win our share of them, we'll be fine..."------Quote repeated during April and May of every year since 1999 by Bob Walk.


A sign of a good team is one that can win the close games on a consistent basis. A variation of this quote is said by virtually every announcer in the league about their respective teams because it is the truth.

Tell that to the Boston Red Sox. They lost more 1-run games than they won in 2007, and yet they won the World Series that year. See also the 2007 Texas Rangers, who had a record of 26-18 in 1-run games but ended up with a seasonal record of 75-87. Just because every announcer says it does not mean that it's true.

_________________
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
~H. L. Mencken


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:04 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 2:11 pm
Posts: 4977
Location: 120 miles west of Iowa City
Willton wrote:
Piratefan13 wrote:
A sign of a good team is one that can win the close games on a consistent basis. A variation of this quote is said by virtually every announcer in the league about their respective teams because it is the truth.

Tell that to the Boston Red Sox. They lost more 1-run games than they won in 2007, and yet they won the World Series that year. See also the 2007 Texas Rangers, who had a record of 26-18 in 1-run games but ended up with a seasonal record of 75-87. Just because every announcer says it does not mean that it's true.


I'd take issue with your definition of a "close game" being limited to one run decisions. At least for me, I certainly consider a game decided by two runs to be a close game. If you look at the save rule, one could conclude that a game decided by three runs is a close game.

I'd be willing to venture that the vast majority of "good teams" will have a winning record in games decided by one and two runs. There may be some exceptions but they are probably outliers (see . . . I know a little stat verbage!). There may be "good teams" that consistently lose close games but more often than not beat the other team into submission but I'm willing to go out on a limb and predict they are a rarity.

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 8:18 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10207
No. 9 wrote:
I'd take issue with your definition of a "close game" being limited to one run decisions. At least for me, I certainly consider a game decided by two runs to be a close game.

Wilton's point is that at least for 1-run games, success in that category is not a sign of success as a whole.

Indeed, Bill James spent quite a bit of time looking at 1-run games, and he found that teams would frequently change dramatically in terms of their record in those games from one season to the next, with no real explanation. He concluded that 1-run games have an element of luck in them.

Having seen I don't know how many infield dribblers that yield a single, then the winning run, and rocket shots directly at an outfielder with two out and a runner on second, etc., I agree that luck plays quite a role in 1-run games.

The sign of good teams is their record in games decided by more than 3 runs. Good teams have a winning percentage of .600 or more in those games. They win blow-outs since they have good pitchig and good hitting. That is the recipe for winning blow-outs.

As for 1-run games, last year Texas went 28-18 in those games, and finished with a record of 79-83. The Cubs were just 24-22 in 1-run games, and had the best record in the NL at 97-64.

The Giants were 31-21 in 1-run games, and 72-90 overall. The Mets were 16-19 in 1-run games, and 89-73 overall.

As a predictor of success, a team's record in 1-run games is not good. On the other hand, a team's record in easier wins and blow-outs (more than 3 runs) is a better indicator of success.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: 3-3 after first week
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 8:21 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10207
Here is what Bill James said about 1-run games:

"My conclusion is slightly different. My conclusion is that winning a lot of one-run games has a persistence of zero (meaning that it appears to be luck) but that losing a lot of one-run games is not necessarily completely meaningless. It's mostly just bad luck, but it doesn't appear to me that it entirely disappears in the following season."

[ΒΆ]"One-run games involve a huge amount of luck. This may be the only safe statement that can be made about them."

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/james_onerun.htm


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 11 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot] and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits