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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:49 am 
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rellimie wrote:
The Rotten One wrote:
The entire Darvish to the Cubs is everything thats wrong with baseball. Milwaukee, a very small market team, spent above their comfort zone to catch up to the Cubs. To close the gap if you will. And with one swoop of the check book the Cubs eliminated that.

A blind squirrel trips on a nut every now and then. <---- Thats the goal of small market baseball.

The big six will always be competitive and will always outspend to create an advantage that most teams cant pursue.

The discouraging part for me is that a salary cap that would provide parity is not achievable because the small market teams are the ones that want a cap the least. It comes with a floor and as it is now they are raking in the profits. Losing is the harsh penalty they pay for counting their new money.


I don’t think the Brewers spent as much as you think.


Cain 16M
Chacin 7.75M
Albers 2.5M
Gallardo 2M
Hoover.5M
Logan 2.5M
Brady ???

Lets not get carried away. 31M isnt that much in reality. But its a pretty big statement for the smallest market in baseball. They could have been like the Pirates and not spent squat. More justified actually. I could be wrong, but the Brewers as they sat were leading, or near the lead for the NL central at the break. But they added 31M. 31M that the Cubs very painlessly countered with one swipe of the pen.
And the reality is that no one should be surprised if the Cubs dont lay out another check. Say for Arietta.

But my point remains. The Brewers, like the Pirates arent interested in a salary cap. They are more interested in tripping on a Nut.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:00 am 
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Ralphie wrote:
The Cubs signing Darvish does not negate what the Brewers did. And the Brewers still have room in their budget to add pitching, so I assume they will.


Lester
Darvish
Quintana
Hendricks
Chatwood - Soon to be replaced by Arietta

With that Cubs offense, the Brewers wont challenge them. Not with that staff.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:52 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Two REALLY bad WS starts.

Otherwise, you are correct that Yu has a career worth of solid starts to justify the cost(s). Between the 'pitch tipping' and elbow injury though... wouldn't be shocking if this one hurt the Cubs on the back end of that deal (as most of these types of deals do).

I don't doubt but that big-money free agent pitcher deals become something of an albatross towards the end of the deal, due to the natural inclination for pitchers to decline and get hurt after the innings take their toll.

However, for the first couple of seasons, the team signing a starting pitcher to a big-money deal gets their money's worth. Sabathia's deal is the prime example. His deal became garbage for the Yankees in 2013, but in the first 4 years, he won 74 games, with a 3.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.28 FIP, 905 IP, 821 K's.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:58 pm 
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I thought I read he has an opt out deal after the 2019 season.
Two good years and he tries to cash in again big time. He sucks for two years and the Cubs pay him another four.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:01 am 
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The Rotten One wrote:
rellimie wrote:
The Rotten One wrote:
The entire Darvish to the Cubs is everything thats wrong with baseball. Milwaukee, a very small market team, spent above their comfort zone to catch up to the Cubs. To close the gap if you will. And with one swoop of the check book the Cubs eliminated that.

A blind squirrel trips on a nut every now and then. <---- Thats the goal of small market baseball.

The big six will always be competitive and will always outspend to create an advantage that most teams cant pursue.

The discouraging part for me is that a salary cap that would provide parity is not achievable because the small market teams are the ones that want a cap the least. It comes with a floor and as it is now they are raking in the profits. Losing is the harsh penalty they pay for counting their new money.


I don’t think the Brewers spent as much as you think.


Cain 16M
Chacin 7.75M
Albers 2.5M
Gallardo 2M
Hoover.5M
Logan 2.5M
Brady ???

Lets not get carried away. 31M isnt that much in reality. But its a pretty big statement for the smallest market in baseball. They could have been like the Pirates and not spent squat. More justified actually. I could be wrong, but the Brewers as they sat were leading, or near the lead for the NL central at the break. But they added 31M. 31M that the Cubs very painlessly countered with one swipe of the pen.
And the reality is that no one should be surprised if the Cubs dont lay out another check. Say for Arietta.

But my point remains. The Brewers, like the Pirates arent interested in a salary cap. They are more interested in tripping on a Nut.


Yet even with all those signings the Brewers Payroll only sits about 8 million more than the Pirates. Both teams have about 10-12 million in pre-arb salaries that have not been calculated into their payroll yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:16 am 
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Quote:
Yet even with all those signings the Brewers Payroll only sits about 8 million more than the Pirates. Both teams have about 10-12 million in pre-arb salaries that have not been calculated into their payroll yet.


Rel, This wasn't an indictment on either teams payroll. Just a fact that when considering a small market like Milwaukee, committing 20 million a season to anyone is a significant amount of money. All Im saying here is that its a frustrating imbalance when you consider:

After Milwaukee committed 32 Million in free agent signings to the 2018 payroll, the Cubs, who had already committed 40 million to 2018 salaries, swooped in and committed another 21 million for one guy.

We always talk about how free agent spending can destroy a team long term.

2018 contracts Total value

Milwaukee 105,000,000 <-------- Which team is a risk of future problem because of these deals?
Chicago 216,450,000 <---------

So why try? Why would you not just try and find the diamond in the rough and present to your fans a rag tag bunch of lovable losers and just be.

And because it works so well for so long, why would you want it any other way?

This is baseballs biggest problem. Finding a way to getting the small market teams to spend money and like it. As I was saying before. Its very very clear that the small market teams are the ones that dont want the salary cap the most.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:03 pm 
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Since the surgery, Darvish's ERA went from 3.41 in 2016 to 3.86 in 2017. His FIP went from 3.09 to 3.86. Those went up, while his opponent BABIP went down from .290 to .283. His WAR (per inning pitched), went from 0.027 to 0.018. His K to BB rate dropped about 4.5%. Simply, he's already trending down and he'll be 32 in August. If they get more than 1 year out of him being a #1 or #2 starter, I'll be surprised. He only has 832 IP here in the US, but he has almost 1,300 in Japan too. For his career, he's logged over 2,100 innings pitched.

I don't doubt that he'd be a solid #3 for a few years, but a #3 getting $20M is going to hurt them... even for a team with money to spend. Prior to signing anyone this year, the Cubs' estimated payroll was almost $160M. Next year, it's projected at $162, followed by $143 then $133. After this season, Bryant will be in arbitration. He's making almost $11M this year. You can assume that he's going to be averaging about $20M per year over the following 3 years (barring an extension... which will probably put him at an average around $30M). They're going to be really pressed if only 1 guy gets hurt. They'll be well over a $200M payroll in the snap of a finger.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:02 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Two REALLY bad WS starts.

Otherwise, you are correct that Yu has a career worth of solid starts to justify the cost(s). Between the 'pitch tipping' and elbow injury though... wouldn't be shocking if this one hurt the Cubs on the back end of that deal (as most of these types of deals do).

I don't doubt but that big-money free agent pitcher deals become something of an albatross towards the end of the deal, due to the natural inclination for pitchers to decline and get hurt after the innings take their toll.

However, for the first couple of seasons, the team signing a starting pitcher to a big-money deal gets their money's worth. Sabathia's deal is the prime example. His deal became garbage for the Yankees in 2013, but in the first 4 years, he won 74 games, with a 3.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.28 FIP, 905 IP, 821 K's.


Agreed.

And for the Cubs, Darvish at the price they paid is FAR preferable to Arrieta. Darvish has a more consistent performance history; his ERA and FIP have been stable whereas Arrieta had one AMAZING season and has been regressing since. Darvish has also dominated from day one after dominating in Japan. It took Arrieta five seasons to break out before regressing.

Your CC comparison seems apt in that the Yanks were pennant contenders for about the first four years after signing him before regressing and being forced to tweak their roster. The Cubs are in a similar position. The major difference between CC and Yu is that CC was a few years younger than Yu when he signed in NY and didn't have an injury history.

Still, your points stand and if Yu does follow CC's trend, this means the Cubs will be non-contenders within three-to-four years (or sooner if Darvish can't stay healthy; although it's not good karma to root for such against the health of a player). That's about as well as Pirates fans can hope for at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubs sign Darvish
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:08 pm 
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I think the Brewers overpaid for Cain. That deal is going to hurt them.

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I say keep the $50 and ban him anyway...

For those jumping ship, we'll keep the bandwagon warm for you...


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