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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:22 pm 
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Alvarez is not a bust holy christ. Pedro did 5 years in the majors and while he wasn't the next Mike Schmidt (and that sure as heck seems to be what the expectation was) he provided decent offense and pop on three playoff teams.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:33 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
What jury is out on Cole Tucker at this point? Was he supposed to hit the majors by 20 or something?


This^^^... is why I didn't count him. I know he's been with the team in the minors for 3+ seasons, but he was coming from HS. I don't think you can even begin to start speculating on him for at least 2 more seasons.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:19 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Alvarez is not a bust holy christ. Pedro did 5 years in the majors and while he wasn't the next Mike Schmidt (and that sure as heck seems to be what the expectation was) he provided decent offense and pop on three playoff teams.


I've exhausted my interest on talking about Pedro previously on another board. To summarize, he was a bust and there's no 2-ways about it.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:30 pm 
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Shorter version, I have no more cogent arguments to make to say a guy who lead the league in HRs was a bust, so stop talking about it.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:45 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
What jury is out on Cole Tucker at this point? Was he supposed to hit the majors by 20 or something?


I'm not saying he is going to be a bust, but he was an eyebrow-raising pick when he was chosen and has had a significant injury. I don't think anyone can say for certain he is going to pan out. Therefore, the jury is out. Personally, I like his chances better than Newman's.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:54 pm 
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TBayXXXVII wrote:
JollyRoger wrote:
Alvarez is not a bust holy christ. Pedro did 5 years in the majors and while he wasn't the next Mike Schmidt (and that sure as heck seems to be what the expectation was) he provided decent offense and pop on three playoff teams.


I've exhausted my interest on talking about Pedro previously on another board. To summarize, he was a bust and there's no 2-ways about it.

We've talked him out here, as well. But he was no bust. He certainly didn't have the career we all hoped, and he was a bit of reach draft-wise, but to contend that he was a bust defies logic.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:13 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Shorter version, I have no more cogent arguments to make to say a guy who lead the league in HRs was a bust, so stop talking about it.

ZM


Didnt he break a window in a suite throwing from 3rd to 1st

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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:34 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Shorter version, I have no more cogent arguments to make to say a guy who lead the league in HRs was a bust, so stop talking about it.

ZM

Alvarez, for where he was drafted, should’ve had a long, successful career. He didn’t have to be Mike Schmidt, but he shouldn’t already be on his way to the pasture either. Even when he was “decent” he would have month long streaks of doing nothing. The year he was an all star he had an OBP under .300 and struck out a gazillion times. And if that’s not enough evidence, he got the yips throwing from third base and was a disaster at first base.

We can argue the semantics...bust...whatever, but he wasn’t very good.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:44 pm 
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Since 2000, 57 3B were drafted in the first round.

Pedro ranks 14th in career WAR with 6.0 (24 players have or did not register a WAR).

Fun fact! Coming in at 24th with a -0.1 WAR is... *drumroll* COLIN MORAN!!!

GREAT pickup, NH!

You guys think you loved Pedro? Wait until you get a load of Colin Moran!

*SIGH*

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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:17 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Fun fact! Coming in at 24th with a -0.1 WAR is... *drumroll* COLIN MORAN!!!

GREAT pickup, NH!

You guys think you loved Pedro? Wait until you get a load of Colin Moran!

*SIGH*

Moran has good hands, a cannon for an arm. I read that a 3rd base prospect in 2012 was described as lacking range, might need to be moved to 1B, blah-dee-freaking-blah ...

Guy was named Nolan something. He plays for Colorado.

Moran is a good lefty bat. He will hit. Those who saw him play last year attested to his swing change - less open stance, bat in a lower start position, driving the ball up for power.

Let's revisit this topic in July. I say Moran will have double-digit HR's and an OPS around .800 at that point.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:07 am 
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val wrote:
TBayXXXVII wrote:
JollyRoger wrote:
Alvarez is not a bust holy christ. Pedro did 5 years in the majors and while he wasn't the next Mike Schmidt (and that sure as heck seems to be what the expectation was) he provided decent offense and pop on three playoff teams.


I've exhausted my interest on talking about Pedro previously on another board. To summarize, he was a bust and there's no 2-ways about it.

We've talked him out here, as well. But he was no bust. He certainly didn't have the career we all hoped, and he was a bit of reach draft-wise, but to contend that he was a bust defies logic.


He wasn’t a reach in the draft. He was the hands down most poslished hitter in that draft. In fact, he was the litmus test of if this new front office was going to hold true to their newly announced drafting philosophy and take the best player available regardless of what it would cost to sign. I remember nothing about him being a “reach” at the #2 slot.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:46 am 
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Fangraphs has Pedro at 7.1 wins for his career. That's not anything close to what you are expecting when you draft a college player 2nd overall. Not a total bust, but pretty close.

Moran has barely played in the majors, so judging him on his career win total doesn't make any sense. The guy has a chance to be good. So let him play.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:47 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Let's revisit this topic in July. I say Moran will have double-digit HR's and an OPS around .800 at that point.


Of course.

You have to admit it's pretty funny how the '3B of the future' that the Bucs traded for is literally a bigger disappointment than Pedro Alvarez at this point in his career.

That would likely not go over very well with the fans (if they knew).

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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:53 pm 
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But he's not a disappointment to me. Nor is he the third baseman of the future. He is merely a guy who has a chance to be the third baseman of the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:57 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Fangraphs has Pedro at 7.1 wins for his career. That's not anything close to what you are expecting when you draft a college player 2nd overall. Not a total bust, but pretty close.


Josh Vitters was a bust.

Who?, you ask.

EXACTLY.

If Pedro wouldn't have been drafted 2nd overall he'd be Joe Crede and we would barely even remember him.

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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:14 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
But he's not a disappointment to me. Nor is he the third baseman of the future. He is merely a guy who has a chance to be the third baseman of the future.


So former 2nd overall pick Pedro is 'pretty close' to being a bust despite hitting 131 HR for the Pirates over 6 seasons, but former 6th overall pick Colin Moran 'has a chance' despite playing a whopping 16 MLB games in five professional seasons?

The only difference between the two lads thus far in their career are:

1. Pedro was two years older when he was drafted and was therefore rushed to the Majors
2. Pedro was already struggling adjusting to ML pitching, although he was showing flashes of power w/ 16 HR his rookie season
3. Pedro was rated as a higher prospect and therefore had higher expectations

The Pirates just traded for a 25-year-old Pedro, minus the HR/SO disparity and ML experience.

We're sitting here bashing Pedro while defending a man who may very well be the next Pedro; a man who has shown little to nothing more than Pedro did at this point in his career.

I can't be the only one who finds this rather amusing.

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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:42 pm 
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Anytime a team drafts a player in the top 3 that is going into his final year of arbitration and that teams says, "no thanks, I'll just sign 32 year old John Jaso for $4M and be better off"... said player, is a bust. Don't let the splash (HR total), cloud your eyes over the fact that he was a below average player for about 75% of the season, every season, his whole career.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:16 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
But he's not a disappointment to me. Nor is he the third baseman of the future. He is merely a guy who has a chance to be the third baseman of the future.


So former 2nd overall pick Pedro is 'pretty close' to being a bust despite hitting 131 HR for the Pirates over 6 seasons, but former 6th overall pick Colin Moran 'has a chance' despite playing a whopping 16 MLB games in five professional seasons?

The only difference between the two lads thus far in their career are:

1. Pedro was two years older when he was drafted and was therefore rushed to the Majors
2. Pedro was already struggling adjusting to ML pitching, although he was showing flashes of power w/ 16 HR his rookie season
3. Pedro was rated as a higher prospect and therefore had higher expectations

The Pirates just traded for a 25-year-old Pedro, minus the HR/SO disparity and ML experience.

We're sitting here bashing Pedro while defending a man who may very well be the next Pedro; a man who has shown little to nothing more than Pedro did at this point in his career.

I can't be the only one who finds this rather amusing.


There are two big differences betwen the two. One is that Pedro is 31 and Moran is 25. So Moran still has a chance to be good.

The other is that Moran is Houston's bust, being their 6th overall, not ours. We got him as one of four players in return for 2 years of Cole, so our expectations are a lot lower. From my perspective as a Pirate fan, he has not played an inning yet, so he can't possibly be a bust.


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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:58 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
There are two big differences betwen the two. One is that Pedro is 31 and Moran is 25. So Moran still has a chance to be good.

The other is that Moran is Houston's bust, being their 6th overall, not ours. We got him as one of four players in return for 2 years of Cole, so our expectations are a lot lower. From my perspective as a Pirate fan, he has not played an inning yet, so he can't possibly be a bust.


Right, but the difference between 25-year-old Moran and 25-year-old Pedro is the TYPE of disappointment they are/were. Pedro was going from struggling spectacularly in his second year to turning into a one-trick pony whereas Moran has barely tasted ML action.

The Pirates traded a former #1 pick and quality SP in Cole Train for what is essentially something of zero value, or at best a lotto ticket.

Overall, it wouldn't be shocking if Moran ended up producing at a similar rate to Pedro (WAR-wise), only with better D, over the next six years. Would that qualify him as a 'bust'? No, not really. Just another run-of-the-mill ball player. Which is exactly what Pedro was.

Pedro played seven years in the Bigs. That isn't a bust.

A bust is someone who never sees the bigs, or who fails SPECTACULARLY when they get their shot. Like Jeff Clement or Bryan Bullington. Or Daniel Moskos. Or Josh Van Benschoten.

Pedro was... he was. Did one or two things well; one or two things horribly. He was the batting equivalent of Kris Benson.

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 Post subject: Re: Neal and Bob - reasonable expenditure to improve team
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:29 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Of course.

You have to admit it's pretty funny how the '3B of the future' that the Bucs traded for is literally a bigger disappointment than Pedro Alvarez at this point in his career.

That would likely not go over very well with the fans (if they knew).

What? I'm pretty sure Pirates fans are aware of the trade.

Moran was an important part of the deal. A well-respected projection site, Oliver, projects based on 600 plate appearances using minor league stats, major-league comps, K frequency, etc. and sees Moran as a 25 HR, 85 RBI player, .264/.336/.446 for an OPS of .782.

Further, holding Moran's lack of playing time against him - as your post does - makes little sense. Moran will be 25 this season. Alvarez was sent back to the minors at age 24 and had his breakthrough season at age 25, when he hit 30 HR's. Using the playing time approach, you would have ripped Alvarez before the 2012 season.

Moran had a 26% line drive rate last season, a 40% fly ball rate and a 34% ground ball rate, the first time in his career he had more flyballs than ground balls. His exit velocity was above-average at 91 mph. He will hit, and hit better than a lot expect.


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