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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:57 am 
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I love how these BA, BP and FG rankings are treated here by Buc fans. When Bucs have prospects, lots of them, highly ranked... its pshah. When they don't get Top 100 returns for a trade, its "we was fleeced!".

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:06 am 
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You can feel sentimental about a player but still use business and baseball sense. Cutch was a great player. A great guy. But do you really want to to give him a contract that will probably be a bad one just so the fan base feels better?


Talk about frustrating. I read last week that the Pirates are interested in trading Josh Harrison in order to get rid of his uncomfortable contract. Yet Harrisons contract is one of the things that makes him attractive to many of the teams interested in his services.

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Yeah, but be careful on that theme. Specifically, Musgrove, Feliz and Moran did not qualify as prospects any more due to major league service time.


None of those 3 guys were ever in the top 100. But there were a lot of MLB stars that were not. So we will wait.

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Boy, reading this you'd think the Bucs traded Tony Pena for three nobodies!


Ha Ha!
The Cubs are going to likely acquire Darvish and the Brewers or Cardinals are looking to add Arrietta. This division is looking to get stronger at the top. It would be really delusional to think that the Pirates can contend for a playoff spot in '18. So really the only reason to deal cole and Cutch was to save money to invest later. :roll: Mission accomplished

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:33 am 
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The market for 30 something free agents has dropped dramatically, so its impossible to know what Cutch might be able to get next offseason. It might not be that much.

The Pirates could have kept him, and at some point made an offer commensurate with what they think his true value is, not going by the rules of seasons gone by.

But I think the Pirates, and maybe Cutch too, might be locked into this outdated version of what his value is.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:29 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
The market for 30 something free agents has dropped dramatically, so its impossible to know what Cutch might be able to get next offseason. It might not be that much.

The Pirates could have kept him, and at some point made an offer commensurate with what they think his true value is, not going by the rules of seasons gone by.

But I think the Pirates, and maybe Cutch too, might be locked into this outdated version of what his value is.


again though, why would you want Cutch at age 32+?


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:05 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
The market for 30 something free agents has dropped dramatically, so its impossible to know what Cutch might be able to get next offseason. It might not be that much.

The Pirates could have kept him, and at some point made an offer commensurate with what they think his true value is, not going by the rules of seasons gone by.

But I think the Pirates, and maybe Cutch too, might be locked into this outdated version of what his value is.


again though, why would you want Cutch at age 32+?


Because he'd still, at worst, be our 2nd best OF. McCutchen over the next 3 years would likely be our 2nd best OF. To turn this back at you, who do you think the organization is going to bring in that will be better than 32, 33, 34, and 35 year old McCutchen?

Polanco will never be better than what McCutchen is now... even if he declines each of the next 3 years. I don't even know of Meadows can even play. There's no other OF in the system other than the guys they traded for, and their upside is AT BEST, as good as what McCutchen was in 2016.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:44 pm 
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TBayXXXVII wrote:
Because he'd still, at worst, be our 2nd best OF. McCutchen over the next 3 years would likely be our 2nd best OF. To turn this back at you, who do you think the organization is going to bring in that will be better than 32, 33, 34, and 35 year old McCutchen?

Polanco will never be better than what McCutchen is now... even if he declines each of the next 3 years. I don't even know of Meadows can even play. There's no other OF in the system other than the guys they traded for, and their upside is AT BEST, as good as what McCutchen was in 2016.


If there was money to spend (10-15mm/year) then I don't think I would commit multiple years to an aging outfielder. 1-2 years yes, 3+ no way.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:55 pm 
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Under the old way of doing things, the Pirates could never afford a guy of his caliber during his free agency years. But now maybe they could.

I don't care that he is aging. Everyone is aging, and some players are past their prime and still produce good value, like Cutch did last year.

We have a team full of young guys and most of them will never be as good as Cutch is now.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:35 pm 
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I am not sure Cutch would have taken a 3-year deal for a hometown discount. I know he is a nice guy and loved Pittsburgh, but someone will give him a deal, probably more years and more money.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:13 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:
I am not sure Cutch would have taken a 3-year deal for a hometown discount. I know he is a nice guy and loved Pittsburgh, but someone will give him a deal, probably more years and more money.

I didn’t think so either until I read his piece. Either he is the biggest BS artist around, or he may very well have taken a bit less to stay.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:15 pm 
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TBayXXXVII wrote:
rellimie wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
The market for 30 something free agents has dropped dramatically, so its impossible to know what Cutch might be able to get next offseason. It might not be that much.

The Pirates could have kept him, and at some point made an offer commensurate with what they think his true value is, not going by the rules of seasons gone by.

But I think the Pirates, and maybe Cutch too, might be locked into this outdated version of what his value is.


again though, why would you want Cutch at age 32+?


Because he'd still, at worst, be our 2nd best OF. McCutchen over the next 3 years would likely be our 2nd best OF. To turn this back at you, who do you think the organization is going to bring in that will be better than 32, 33, 34, and 35 year old McCutchen?

Polanco will never be better than what McCutchen is now... even if he declines each of the next 3 years. I don't even know of Meadows can even play. There's no other OF in the system other than the guys they traded for, and their upside is AT BEST, as good as what McCutchen was in 2016.

This.

They have yet to prove they have, or are willing to acquire, a legitimate replacement. Some guys are still good late in to their careers.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:49 pm 
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I don't know what kind of extension Cutch would have wanted or needed to stay, but if he'd have signed a 5 year deal worth an average of $17M per year, I'd have done it. What's going to end up happening is that our outfield will be Marte, Polanco, and OF du jour this year, and in 5 years, Polanco, Meadows, and all of the OF's acquired this off season will not be on the Pirates and we'll have gone through about 12-15 different guys while McCutchen is posting an average OPS season of about .775 throughout that time frame.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:07 am 
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Five year deal? Sorry. Wouldn't do that with most players 30+. Although sometimes it works out, most of the time it doesn't. And the Pirates can't afford mistakes like that.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:55 am 
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Quote:
They have yet to prove they have, or are willing to acquire, a legitimate replacement.


They have themselves in a pretty good pickle right now. As it sits right now they will have to choose between Osuna and Frazier for left field. Osuna is a defensive disaster in the outfield. But they almost have to go there. They just traded away 28 home runs and if they dont replace them they could lose 90+ games next year. Osuna as a full time starter could hit 20+ dingers.

My suggestion to the BMTIB would be to put El Coffee in left, Marte in center and move Bell back to his natural position in RF. Put Osuna at his natural position at 1st, Tell the fans to go "F" themselves and move on.

With my plan the Buc's will win 75 to 80 games and the BMTIB can continue to talk about their bridge building towards that championship team of the near future.

What do you think of my plan Mr. Huntington err Rellime?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:28 am 
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Assuming no additions (and I think there should be additions), you might see a half dozen different guys getting playing time in left.

You could start with a Frazier/Osuna platoon, but Rodriguez, Meadows, Luplow, and Bostick could all see time there.

I wouldn't mess with the rest of the positions. I don't like Bell in the outfield.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:06 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:
Five year deal? Sorry. Wouldn't do that with most players 30+. Although sometimes it works out, most of the time it doesn't. And the Pirates can't afford mistakes like that.


Odds are that in 3 or 4 years, the money wouldn't be that bad in the grand scheme of things across the league. If he's still around a .750-.770 OPS and the Pirates "couldn't afford to pay him that" (which is bullcrap), there would be a team would take that production at that pay rate... just the return would be minimal.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:24 am 
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The Rotten One wrote:
Quote:
Yeah, but be careful on that theme. Specifically, Musgrove, Feliz and Moran did not qualify as prospects any more due to major league service time.


None of those 3 guys were ever in the top 100. But there were a lot of MLB stars that were not. So we will wait.

Not quite:

Baseball America, 2016:

32. Joe Musgrove RHP Astros Pinpoint control has been taken to a new level this season, with just nine walks in 71 1/3 innings.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ ... 3wK7KxG.99

MLB.com, 2015:

9. Moran comes from a baseball family (his brother, Brian Moran, and his uncle, B.J. Surhoff, have both played professionally) and he has a good understanding of the game. His advanced approach at the plate and ability to put the barrel on the ball translate into high batting averages. Though he has raw power, his swing consistently produces line drives than home runs.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=hou

2014 Minor League Ball, Top 150 Major League Prospects

67) Colin Moran, 3B, Miami Marlins, Grade B+

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/ ... hn-sickels

2015 Minor League Ball, Top 175 Prospects

70) Michael Feliz, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/3/ ... hn-sickels


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:23 am 
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I stand corrected. Its much more comforting knowing now that each one of these guys fell out of the top 100.

Quote:
Though he has raw power, his swing consistently produces line drives than home runs.


Thats nice and all, but Moran has a .940 fielding percentage at 3rd base in AAA or higher. Consider glove wizard :roll: David Freese is 20 percentage points higher, that presents the problem.
Quote:
Joe Musgrove RHP Astros Pinpoint control has been taken to a new level this season, with just nine walks in 71 1/3 innings


Last year he started 15 games for the Astros. His ERA was 4.77. In contrast Jon Niese started 18 games for the Pirates the year before and his ERA was slightly higher at 4.87.

Quote:
Michael Feliz, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+


Should I mention that he pitched in 46 games for the Astro's and had a 5.63 ERA? Must have been hard for the Astros to part with that haul

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:02 pm 
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The Astros are the deepest team in the league. We got their spare parts. Serviceable parts, but parts that a contender doesn’t have use for. The worst thing about this is that the Pirates were a few smart moves and some investment away from being in their league not too long ago.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:16 pm 
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abitoutside wrote:
The Astros are the deepest team in the league. We got their spare parts. Serviceable parts, but parts that a contender doesn’t have use for. The worst thing about this is that the Pirates were a few smart moves and some investment away from being in their league not too long ago.


Bad luck played into this as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:29 am 
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The Rotten One wrote:
I stand corrected. Its much more comforting knowing now that each one of these guys fell out of the top 100.

As I noted, Musgrove and Feliz fell out of the top 100 because they have spent too much time in the major leagues.

The Rotten One wrote:
Thats nice and all, but Moran has a .940 fielding percentage at 3rd base in AAA or higher. Consider glove wizard :roll: David Freese is 20 percentage points higher, that presents the problem.

Moran has some questions in terms of his fielding, but fielding percentage is a freaking useless stat. No relevant source cites fielding percentage any more. For example, Zach Cozart ranked quite low in fielding percentage in 2017, but was the 9th best fielding SS in baseball according to relevant advanced stats.

The Rotten One wrote:
Last year [Musgrove] started 15 games for the Astros. His ERA was 4.77. In contrast Jon Niese started 18 games for the Pirates the year before and his ERA was slightly higher at 4.87.

ERA is descriptive; FIP is predictive. Also, have you ever seen Musgrove pitch? Did you see Niese?

Musgrove's FIP was 4.38 last year. He deals at 93-96 mph with a filthy slider. Niese's ERA with the Pirates was 4.91 (not 4.87), but he was freaking lucky - his FIP was 5.36. Comparing the two is just ... well, silly.

The Rotten One wrote:
Quote:
Michael Feliz, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+


Should I mention that he pitched in 46 games for the Astro's and had a 5.63 ERA? Must have been hard for the Astros to part with that haul


Feliz deals 98 mph with a killer slider. His 2016 FIP was 3.24. His FIP last year was 3.78. His xFIP last year was 3.58.

You know two other guys who featured killer stuff, with bad ERA's but much better FIP's and xFIP's? AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano.

Your harping on ERA is basically identical to DK's screeching in 2012 that Russell Martin sucked because he had a BA of .211 the prior year ... completely freaking ignoring his high walk rate, excellent ISO, and uncharacteristically low BABIP.

Stop using back-of-the-baseball-card stats to judge players. Nobody does that anymore - nobody. No GM, no manager, no scout, nobody. Look at advanced stats like K rates, K-BB figures, FIP, xFIP, BABIP, and for batters, BB rate, BABIP and ISO.


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