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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:18 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
abitoutside wrote:
The Astros are the deepest team in the league. We got their spare parts. Serviceable parts, but parts that a contender doesn’t have use for. The worst thing about this is that the Pirates were a few smart moves and some investment away from being in their league not too long ago.


Bad luck played into this as well.


Running Vogelsong and Niese out there after a 98 win season..."Bad Luck".

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:36 pm 
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Ryann wrote:
rellimie wrote:
abitoutside wrote:
The Astros are the deepest team in the league. We got their spare parts. Serviceable parts, but parts that a contender doesn’t have use for. The worst thing about this is that the Pirates were a few smart moves and some investment away from being in their league not too long ago.


Bad luck played into this as well.


Running Vogelsong and Niese out there after a 98 win season..."Bad Luck".


You know very well that is not what I was referring to.

Also, payroll increased after the 98 win season.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:06 pm 
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You know very well that is not what I was referring to.

Also, payroll increased after the 98 win season.[/quote]

Only marginally and they dumped it as soon as the "bad luck" kicked in. They were not committed and made horrible decisions because of it.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:12 pm 
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Ryann wrote:
Running Vogelsong and Niese out there after a 98 win season..."Bad Luck".

McCutchen, Cole, Burnett, and Liriano combined for 18 WAR in 2015. Burnett retired so his contribution (3 WAR) was what needed replacing.

Presume Pirates trade for or sign a legit #3 starter who gives them 200 IP, 185 K's and 3.0 WAR. Guess what? They still struggle because Cole, McCutchen and Liriano COMBINED for 3 WAR in 2016. Yes, that is correct - those 3 guys produced 15 WAR in 2015 and 3 in 2016.

Where exactly were the Pirates to find another 12 wins in 2016, even after replacing Burnett with an equivalent pitcher?


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:40 pm 
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Quote:
Stop using back-of-the-baseball-card stats to judge players. Nobody does that anymore - nobody. No GM, no manager, no scout, nobody.


Michael Felliz = war (-.05) H per 9 = 9.9 Whip 1.56

True Feliz and Burnett were statistically comparable the year before they were Pirates. However Burnetts best year statistically he was only 10 wins and 11 loses. And Burrnett pitched behind a considerably better offense and defense than Feliz will. Also turning around Burnett and Liriano was mostly due to the off season work of Jim Benedict. Its widely known and clearly expressed by Liriano himself that he cared very little for Ray Searage. I guess we will see, wont we?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:46 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Ryann wrote:
Running Vogelsong and Niese out there after a 98 win season..."Bad Luck".

McCutchen, Cole, Burnett, and Liriano combined for 18 WAR in 2015. Burnett retired so his contribution (3 WAR) was what needed replacing.

Presume Pirates trade for or sign a legit #3 starter who gives them 200 IP, 185 K's and 3.0 WAR. Guess what? They still struggle because Cole, McCutchen and Liriano COMBINED for 3 WAR in 2016. Yes, that is correct - those 3 guys produced 15 WAR in 2015 and 3 in 2016.

Where exactly were the Pirates to find another 12 wins in 2016, even after replacing Burnett with an equivalent pitcher?


No one wants to hear that. I have stated several times over the the past year that Cole, Cutch and Liriano are the primary reasons they didn't complete in 2016.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:18 pm 
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rellimie wrote:

No one wants to hear that. I have stated several times over the the past year that Cole, Cutch and Liriano are the primary reasons they didn't complete in 2016.


As have I. Also, Vogelsong was to be only a stop gap until Taillon was ready later that year and, well... that didn't work out.

They gambled on Niese, just like they did with Burnett, Volquez, and others. He didn't work out. Much like Sanchez.

But, it was the stars not being the stars that was the problem.

Same last year.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:47 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Ryann wrote:
Running Vogelsong and Niese out there after a 98 win season..."Bad Luck".

McCutchen, Cole, Burnett, and Liriano combined for 18 WAR in 2015. Burnett retired so his contribution (3 WAR) was what needed replacing.

Presume Pirates trade for or sign a legit #3 starter who gives them 200 IP, 185 K's and 3.0 WAR. Guess what? They still struggle because Cole, McCutchen and Liriano COMBINED for 3 WAR in 2016. Yes, that is correct - those 3 guys produced 15 WAR in 2015 and 3 in 2016.

Where exactly were the Pirates to find another 12 wins in 2016, even after replacing Burnett with an equivalent pitcher?


Exactly.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:52 pm 
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Quoting myself:

Quote:
Also turning around Burnett and Liriano was mostly due to the off season work of Jim Benedict. Its widely known and clearly expressed by Liriano himself that he cared very little for Ray Searage. I guess we will see, wont we?



Benedict fired by the Marlins and Hired by the Cubs.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:59 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
Michael Felliz = war (-.05) H per 9 = 9.9 Whip 1.56

More relevant stats on Feliz:

2016 K 35.2% K-BB% 27% Swinging Strike Rate 13.6%
2017 K 32.1% K-BB% 22% Swinging Strike Rate 14.2%

2016 K rate is 6th highest in MLB for pitchers with 60 or more IP
2016 K-BB rate is 6th highest in MLB for pitchers with 60 or more IP
2016 Swinging Strike Rate 30th highest in MLB for pitchers with 60 or more IP
2017 K rate is 25th highest in MLB for pitchers with 50 or more IP
2017 K-BB rate is 35th highest in MLB for pitchers with 50 or more IP
2017 Swinging Strike Rate 38th highest in MLB for pitchers with 40 or more IP

Feliz' combined 2016-2017 FIP, K rate, K-BB rate, swinging strike rates are elite. As in, among the best in the game. His ERA is elevated due to an inflated HR rate, due in significant part to the Astros home park.

Feliz has dominated at every level. His fastball/slider combination is superb. I think his best comp is Corey Knebel of the Brewers. Knebel has a 97 mph fastball. Feliz has a 98 mph fastball. Knebel has an 89 mph slider. Feliz has a 90 mph slider. Knebel has a career 3.24 xFIP. Feliz has a career 3.14 xFIP. Knebel has a career swinging-strike rate of 11.2%. Feliz has a career swinging-strike rate of 13.8%. Knebel has a career K rate of 33.2%. Feliz has a career K rate of 32.7%. Knebel has a career K-BB rate of 22.4%. Feliz has a career K-BB rate of 23.6%.

Oh, and Knebel had a 4.68 ERA in 2016. I guess he sucked ... until he rang up a 1.78 ERA last season and took over the closer role because his 2016 ERA was pumped up by a very low strand rate and high BABIP.

Feliz will be the 8th inning guy by May. His stuff is filthy. Major league hitters swing-and-miss at his stuff similar to what they do with Chapman, Rivero, Betances and Iglesias.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:42 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
The Rotten One wrote:
Michael Felliz = war (-.05) H per 9 = 9.9 Whip 1.56

More relevant stats on Feliz:

2016 K 35.2% K-BB% 27% Swinging Strike Rate 13.6%
2017 K 32.1% K-BB% 22% Swinging Strike Rate 14.2%

2016 K rate is 6th highest in MLB for pitchers with 60 or more IP
2016 K-BB rate is 6th highest in MLB for pitchers with 60 or more IP
2016 Swinging Strike Rate 30th highest in MLB for pitchers with 60 or more IP
2017 K rate is 25th highest in MLB for pitchers with 50 or more IP
2017 K-BB rate is 35th highest in MLB for pitchers with 50 or more IP
2017 Swinging Strike Rate 38th highest in MLB for pitchers with 40 or more IP

Feliz' combined 2016-2017 FIP, K rate, K-BB rate, swinging strike rates are elite. As in, among the best in the game. His ERA is elevated due to an inflated HR rate, due in significant part to the Astros home park.

Feliz has dominated at every level. His fastball/slider combination is superb. I think his best comp is Corey Knebel of the Brewers. Knebel has a 97 mph fastball. Feliz has a 98 mph fastball. Knebel has an 89 mph slider. Feliz has a 90 mph slider. Knebel has a career 3.24 xFIP. Feliz has a career 3.14 xFIP. Knebel has a career swinging-strike rate of 11.2%. Feliz has a career swinging-strike rate of 13.8%. Knebel has a career K rate of 33.2%. Feliz has a career K rate of 32.7%. Knebel has a career K-BB rate of 22.4%. Feliz has a career K-BB rate of 23.6%.

Oh, and Knebel had a 4.68 ERA in 2016. I guess he sucked ... until he rang up a 1.78 ERA last season and took over the closer role because his 2016 ERA was pumped up by a very low strand rate and high BABIP.

Feliz will be the 8th inning guy by May. His stuff is filthy. Major league hitters swing-and-miss at his stuff similar to what they do with Chapman, Rivero, Betances and Iglesias.


The teams the Pirates play better get to the starters because it will be thought to get through this bullpen.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:36 am 
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rellimie wrote:
The teams the Pirates play better get to the starters because it will be thought to get through this bullpen.

Yep. Taillon, Nova, Musgrove, Kuhl, Williams, Glasnow (still hopeful here), Brault, Holmes and Kingham give the team depth.

That depth needs to be converted to productivity. 5 of the 9 listed need to step up and perform.

Pen right now features Rivero, Feliz, Kontos, Santana, Schugel, Crick, Neverauskus, and a 2nd lefty. Turley getting suspended really kills since he was my 1st choice as the 2nd lefty. 95 mph fastball, solid secondaries, high K rate.

Pen features a lot of guys who deal. Rivero's stuff is just filthy. Feliz deals upper 90's, Kontos deals a 93 mph sinker and 88 mph cutter, Santana has a 95 mph fastball and 88 mph slider, Crick has a 98 mph fastball and a 94 mph cutter, Neverauskus deals a 97 mph fastball and 90 mph slider.

Team has certainly loaded up on hard throwers. Lots and lots of hard throwers.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:08 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
rellimie wrote:
The teams the Pirates play better get to the starters because it will be thought to get through this bullpen.

Yep. Taillon, Nova, Musgrove, Kuhl, Williams, Glasnow (still hopeful here), Brault, Holmes and Kingham give the team depth.

That depth needs to be converted to productivity. 5 of the 9 listed need to step up and perform.

Pen right now features Rivero, Feliz, Kontos, Santana, Schugel, Crick, Neverauskus, and a 2nd lefty. Turley getting suspended really kills since he was my 1st choice as the 2nd lefty. 95 mph fastball, solid secondaries, high K rate.

Pen features a lot of guys who deal. Rivero's stuff is just filthy. Feliz deals upper 90's, Kontos deals a 93 mph sinker and 88 mph cutter, Santana has a 95 mph fastball and 88 mph slider, Crick has a 98 mph fastball and a 94 mph cutter, Neverauskus deals a 97 mph fastball and 90 mph slider.

Team has certainly loaded up on hard throwers. Lots and lots of hard throwers.


Every team has hard throwers in the bullpen. A relief pitcher can only provide you so many innings. And yes some of these guys have good stuff but have not produced.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:41 pm 
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Ryann wrote:
Every team has hard throwers in the bullpen. A relief pitcher can only provide you so many innings. And yes some of these guys have good stuff but have not produced.

Feliz has produced. Musgrove has produced. Crick produced in his role with the Giants last year.

Further, when you say that every team has guys dealing upper 90's in the pen, did you see the Pirates pen last year, outside of Rivero? Wade Leblanc, Antonio Bastardo, etc.

Know why the Pirates added Kontos, Feliz and Crick? Their bulllpen was awful last year. 4.23 FIP. That is terrible. 8.16 K's per 9 IP - last in the NL. LAST. Your belief that every team has a lot of hard throwers in the pen was not true for the 2017 Pirates, and the K data and FIP prove the point. The Pirates pen last year was Felipe Rivero and, before Kontos joined the Pirates, a bevy of mediocre relievers.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:32 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Ryann wrote:
Every team has hard throwers in the bullpen. A relief pitcher can only provide you so many innings. And yes some of these guys have good stuff but have not produced.

Feliz has produced. Musgrove has produced. Crick produced in his role with the Giants last year.

Further, when you say that every team has guys dealing upper 90's in the pen, did you see the Pirates pen last year, outside of Rivero? Wade Leblanc, Antonio Bastardo, etc.

Know why the Pirates added Kontos, Feliz and Crick? Their bulllpen was awful last year. 4.23 FIP. That is terrible. 8.16 K's per 9 IP - last in the NL. LAST. Your belief that every team has a lot of hard throwers in the pen was not true for the 2017 Pirates, and the K data and FIP prove the point. The Pirates pen last year was Felipe Rivero and, before Kontos joined the Pirates, a bevy of mediocre relievers.


Does MLB have shorthand stats for games decided from the 6th inning onward? Holds and Saves are SUPPOSED to measure those things, but they're imperfect, at best.

If there were some way to see how many runs the Pirates allowed, or that their RP's stranded, in the 6th inning and later, it's a safe bet that the "Shark Tank" era bullpen was far better than the last two years.

The Pirates strength since NH molded the team has been scoring early and holding leads, or keeping games close and pulling a win out. "Game management".

Therefore you're on point that the bullpen upgrade(s) should help the direction of the team.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:54 pm 
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Hmmm, are we to believe the Bucs are moving, at least for now, to a twice through the lineup with starters approach? At least until the young guns get their feet settled?

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:50 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Hmmm, are we to believe the Bucs are moving, at least for now, to a twice through the lineup with starters approach? At least until the young guns get their feet settled?

ZM

That is a very good question, and I think as far as the #4 and 5 starters, maybe. I believe Taillon and Nova will go as long as they can. Musgrove will prove what he can do the 3rd time through. Kuhl and Williams - if they are still dealing, they stay in but if they show any troubles in the 6th, pen time.

For what it's worth, the 1st time through the line-up, Kuhl posted a .853 opponent OPS, triggered in large part by a stupid-high .368 BABIP. 2nd time through, .694 OPS. 3rd time through, .860 OPS with a very average .300 BABIP. So keeping close watch on Kuhl 3rd time through makes a lot of sense.

Williams, 1st time through .800 OPS (once again triggered in significant part by a freakishly high BABIP of .344), 2nd time through .576 OPS, 3rd time through .813 OPS with a very very low K rate and a pretty ordinary BABIP of .316. Once again, good idea to keep a close watch on his 3rd time through the line-up, particularly where you have guys like Crick and Kontos available in the pen.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:47 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
rellimie wrote:
The teams the Pirates play better get to the starters because it will be thought to get through this bullpen.

Yep. Taillon, Nova, Musgrove, Kuhl, Williams, Glasnow (still hopeful here), Brault, Holmes and Kingham give the team depth.

That depth needs to be converted to productivity. 5 of the 9 listed need to step up and perform.

Pen right now features Rivero, Feliz, Kontos, Santana, Schugel, Crick, Neverauskus, and a 2nd lefty. Turley getting suspended really kills since he was my 1st choice as the 2nd lefty. 95 mph fastball, solid secondaries, high K rate.

Pen features a lot of guys who deal. Rivero's stuff is just filthy. Feliz deals upper 90's, Kontos deals a 93 mph sinker and 88 mph cutter, Santana has a 95 mph fastball and 88 mph slider, Crick has a 98 mph fastball and a 94 mph cutter, Neverauskus deals a 97 mph fastball and 90 mph slider.

Team has certainly loaded up on hard throwers. Lots and lots of hard throwers.


Bucfan,

Do you think Brault could be the 2nd lefty out of the pen?
Long guy if you need to go to the pen early, and a middle inning guy?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:49 am 
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nad69dan wrote:
Bucfan,

Do you think Brault could be the 2nd lefty out of the pen?
Long guy if you need to go to the pen early, and a middle inning guy?

By default, he may be the guy after Turley's suspension.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:10 am 
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I think you have to use Brault in relief, and still go get someone else. I don't even count Rivero as a lefty, because he is not going to be available for matchups in the middle innings.


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