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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:28 pm 
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The trade for Niese looked reasonable at the time. He was a veteran in his late 20s with a solid track record. He was coming off of a mediocre season but the four preceding that one were pretty darn good.


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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:45 pm 
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Neise at the time, was no different than Burnett at the time, or Volquez at the time, or any number of others who worked out, or didn't (Sanchez).

Love the selective memories at work.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:46 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Neise at the time, was no different than Burnett at the time, or Volquez at the time, or any number of others who worked out, or didn't (Sanchez).

Love the selective memories at work.

ZM


Thats bullshit. Niese sucked in his last year as a Met. In fact at the end of the year he was banished to their bull pen. No selective memory here. If I could select my memories I would choose to not remember Niese at all. Fact of the matter is that NH found a trade partner for a left handed pitcher who he could acquire and his wizardly coaching staff could use their magical power to fix.

Where did the magical powers go?

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:23 am 
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The Rotten One wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Neise at the time, was no different than Burnett at the time, or Volquez at the time, or any number of others who worked out, or didn't (Sanchez).

Love the selective memories at work.

ZM


Thats bullshit. Niese sucked in his last year as a Met. In fact at the end of the year he was banished to their bull pen. No selective memory here. If I could select my memories I would choose to not remember Niese at all. Fact of the matter is that NH found a trade partner for a left handed pitcher who he could acquire and his wizardly coaching staff could use their magical power to fix.

Where did the magical powers go?


At least it wasn’t about money. Niese made more than Walker that year.


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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:39 am 
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Not to be a complete disagreeable wet rag, but it was somewhat about money.

Walker was traded in December so the Pirates could avoid Arbitration that was going to cost them at least 8 Million dollars. Thats what the Buc's paid Walker the year before, and he had not regressed. If you google Walker trade you will see that many thought Walker and his 2015 sixteen dingers and twenty three the year before could be awarded up to 12 million. The Pirates were not going to go there.

*Sidebar: Not a bad decision to let the oft injured Walker go. (JMO)

The Pirates acquired Niese and paid him 5.9 Million in '16. Saving roughly 3 to 4 million. Possibly more.

Where for me it becomes even more about money, is the miss on Happ. As much as nobody thought Happ would win 30 games the following two years (except this guy) it turns out that the 3 year 36 mil became quite a bargain, huh?

And its not like the Pirates couldnt trade away the 3rd year of a 30 game winner. Wonder how many prospects that would have brought?

In fairness though, Im sure if NH could do it over he would have gone that route. Sometimes guys just dont swing at the fastball over the middle of the plate.

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:34 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
Not to be a complete disagreeable wet rag, but it was somewhat about money.

Walker was traded in December so the Pirates could avoid Arbitration that was going to cost them at least 8 Million dollars. Thats what the Buc's paid Walker the year before, and he had not regressed. If you google Walker trade you will see that many thought Walker and his 2015 sixteen dingers and twenty three the year before could be awarded up to 12 million. The Pirates were not going to go there.

*Sidebar: Not a bad decision to let the oft injured Walker go. (JMO)

The Pirates acquired Niese and paid him 5.9 Million in '16. Saving roughly 3 to 4 million. Possibly more.

Where for me it becomes even more about money, is the miss on Happ. As much as nobody thought Happ would win 30 games the following two years (except this guy) it turns out that the 3 year 36 mil became quite a bargain, huh?

And its not like the Pirates couldnt trade away the 3rd year of a 30 game winner. Wonder how many prospects that would have brought?

In fairness though, Im sure if NH could do it over he would have gone that route. Sometimes guys just dont swing at the fastball over the middle of the plate.


When the Pirates traded for Niese they were going to assume the entire salary. The fact that they traded him in July doesn't factor into what the mindset was when they acquired him.

Walker's problem is he wasn't worth what arbitration as going to give him. The Pirates tried to sign him to a contract but he scoffed at it thinking he was better than he was. The fact that Niese was the best they could do says a lot.

If Happ had ANY history of success before the 12 games he pitched with the Pirates I would have been more upset that they didn't sign him. He was shit though. For 9 years. When the Pirates had to weigh 9 years of shit vs 12 games of success, you go with the 9 years.


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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:53 pm 
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rellimie wrote:


If Happ had ANY history of success before the 12 games he pitched with the Pirates I would have been more upset that they didn't sign him. He was shit though. For 9 years. When the Pirates had to weigh 9 years of shit vs 12 games of success, you go with the 9 years.


Yeah but Rellime. Dont the Pirates think that they can take a guy with upside, bring out that upside and ride it on the cheap? And if they truly think they can fix guys, once they fixed Happ, doesnt that make the past sample, useless?

I mean in this regard once Searage put his magical hands on Happ, Happ won 7 of the next 9 decisions with the Pirates. And then 30 of the next 45 with the Blue Jays. Not Bad id say

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:27 pm 
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Both Happ and, to a lesser extent, Volquez are examples of the Bucs being cheap ('market efficient') and too smart for their own good.

They spend SO much time looking for 'value assets', most of whom are near the end of their deals or shelf-lives, that once they DO produce and become something of value they refuse to pay for said production. Even worse, they often fail to get full value of return for said 'value asset' once it becomes valuable (they buy low and don't sell high; they buy low and... let someone else take it for free at the high).

It's semi-defeatist in that it assumes that the one pulling the strings knows how to identify such 'value assets' with impunity. The fact is that the odds dictate that, sooner or later, an acquisition will turn into a Niese as opposed to a Burnett.

I forget the name for this fallacy, but it happens a lot in economics (stock trading). The person who picks 'winners' assumes that everything they buy will turn into gold. What they don't realize is that instead of having some 'Midas touch', they caught their break and aren't guaranteed another.

I get the Pirates FO strategy; I do. It isn't sustainable though. Sooner or later you have to KEEP the assets you've developed or risk, rather unfavorably, that you can develop others in their place.

With most teams track records being about 50/50 in any given direction, certainly nothing is guaranteed, but the Pirates are so brazen about taking on new risk that it almost invites regression or outright failure.

TL;DR, the Pirates failure stems from their success. They're foolish enough to think that they can shine any shit to gold instead of keeping the gold they have.

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:33 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Neise at the time, was no different than Burnett at the time, or Volquez at the time, or any number of others who worked out, or didn't (Sanchez).

Love the selective memories at work.

ZM


Thats bullshit. Niese sucked in his last year as a Met. In fact at the end of the year he was banished to their bull pen. No selective memory here. If I could select my memories I would choose to not remember Niese at all. Fact of the matter is that NH found a trade partner for a left handed pitcher who he could acquire and his wizardly coaching staff could use their magical power to fix.

Where did the magical powers go?


No, its not. Your statement is the BS. Care to tell me what Burnett, Volquez, Happ, et. al. records, stats were when the Pirates signed them?

Go ahead. I'll wait.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:08 pm 
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Updated:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/pirates-trade-rumors-gerrit-cole-yankees.html

If NH can't get what he wants, keep Cole.

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:14 pm 
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Quote:
No, its not. Your statement is the BS. Care to tell me what Burnett, Volquez, Happ, et. al. records, stats were when the Pirates signed them?

Go ahead. I'll wait.

ZM


Thanks for waiting. Much appreciate your patients.

AJ Burnett - Signed as a free agent - 2014 - previously acquired for 2 guys who never made it out of AA.
Edison Volquez singed as a free agent - 2013
JA Happ -Acquired for Adrien Sampson who had an era over 7.75 last year - a nobody .

Jon Niese - acquired for potential 10 million dollar Neil Walker. A guy with value.

Burnett and volquez were free agent choices. Brought to the club to help. Niese was part of a SALARY DUMP. Even your trusty Neil Nuttington admitted that the acquisition of Niese was the worst move of his tenure with the Pirates.Only because Niese was paid too much to be so fucking bad. If he had it to do over he would have traded Walker for cheaper garbage and moved on. It was never ever ever about trying to acquire a pitcher to help the club. It was all about getting rid of Walkers arbitration. Period. To think something else is naive.

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:32 pm 
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Cool, so you avoid the point brought up and contradicted yourself.

All those players were brought in, by various means, to help.

We said Neise was no different than the others in that regard. He wasn't. The difference? He didn't work out.

It wasn't a salary "dump" because Neise made what Walker did for chirssakes. It was switch from a guy they were going to have to pay 17 Mil for, and who could not make it through a season for a pitcher who matched the profiles of other reclamation projects they had made with success.

So, care to try again?

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:58 pm 
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Quote:
It wasn't a salary "dump" because Neise made what Walker did for chirssakes.


No he didnt. Not even close. Walker was set to be awarded 10 million plus in arbitration. To avoid arbitration the Mets signed him for 10,550,000 for '16.
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-br ... -earnings/

The Pirates paid Niese $5,901,640 for '16 and then turned down his option the following year.
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-yan ... -earnings/

So the way I see it. When you trade a guy who is set to make 11 million for a guy who makes 5.5 Million who sucks....I call that a salary dump of 5 million dollars. If it is quacking like a fucking duck, Shoot it and eat it.

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:57 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
Quote:
It wasn't a salary "dump" because Neise made what Walker did for chirssakes.


No he didnt. Not even close. Walker was set to be awarded 10 million plus in arbitration. To avoid arbitration the Mets signed him for 10,550,000 for '16.
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-br ... -earnings/

The Pirates paid Niese $5,901,640 for '16 and then turned down his option the following year.
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-yan ... -earnings/

So the way I see it. When you trade a guy who is set to make 11 million for a guy who makes 5.5 Million who sucks....I call that a salary dump of 5 million dollars. If it is quacking like a fucking duck, Shoot it and eat it.


The Pirates only paid him 5.9 because they traded him half way through the season. His salary for the year was 10 and at the time of the trade they had no idea it wouldn’t work out.


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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:29 am 
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yep,

So, try again RO.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:47 pm 
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The total salary for Niese in 2016 was 9 million. 1.5 of that was prepaid by the Mets in a bonus. The Pirates traded Niese back to the Mets in August, (not half way through the season). The whole 2016 season was part of a necessary massive salary dump.
Sidebar* Whether dumping those salaries was the right thing to do was never being debated. I'm simply contending that it was never about Niese. There were way better guys available for 9 mil. And Walker could have been dumped for nothing. (see Liriano Dump. It works)

Players dumped that year were Alvarez, Walker, Morton, With guys going via free agency Burnett, Happ, Bastardo. The 1st 3 equaled 24mil in salary relief. The additions that year were Niese, Vogelsong, Freese and Jaso.

The math:
Walker -10
Alvarez - 6 mil
Morton - 8 mil
Minus 24 million

Freese 3 mil
Jaso 4 mil
Niese 9 mil
Vogelsong 2 mil
Plus 18 million

Of course in August they also shed Liriano and Niese and acquired Nova.

_______________________

Total adjusted Payroll for 98 wins in 2015 = 105,015,606 - (Active Payroll - 85,079,420) <------ Important number (8 mil in retained salary)
Total adjusted payroll for 78 wins in 2016 = 105,866,836 - (Active Payroll - 71,459,433) (38 mil in retained salary)<------ another Important number
Total adjusted payroll for 74 wins in 2017 = 109,840,330 - (Active Payroll - 64,196,313) (26 mil in retained salary)<------ another Important number

Retained salary is money you are paying or paid former Pirates. Active payroll is rostered players. Disabled list money makes up the difference.

What this means to me is that in 2015 the Pirates FO, in their minds were "all in". For the last two years they have been in dead money recovery mode. In 2018 they are on par to not hardly have any dead money at all. That is if the roster stays as it is. If not they are going to need to make some deals that dont include munching on salary's of new former players.

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Last edited by The Rotten One on Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:52 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
Vogelsong 2 mil


Egads, man! You're right!

That DID happen! It wasn't only some horrific nightmare!

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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:42 pm 
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If Happ had ANY history of success before the 12 games he pitched with the Pirates I would have been more upset that they didn't sign him. He was shit though. For 9 years. When the Pirates had to weigh 9 years of shit vs 12 games of success, you go with the 9 years.


Happ was not shit for 9 years. He was very good for 3 years in 08, 09 and 2010. Was shit for 2 years and then average in 2013 and 2014. He has been very good since the Pirates acquired him. They blew it with him and Niese. Hated it at the time and hate it even more in hindsight.


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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:50 pm 
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Freese 3 mil
Jaso 4 mil
Niese 9 mil
Vogelsong 2 mil
Plus 18 million

Wow what a waste of resources. Cheap and stupid is no way to run a railroad.


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 Post subject: Re: Cole Rumors
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:44 pm 
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abitoutside wrote:
Freese 3 mil
Jaso 4 mil
Niese 9 mil
Vogelsong 2 mil
Plus 18 million

Wow what a waste of resources. Cheap and stupid is no way to run a railroad.


I don’t see Freese as a waste. They don’t use him correctly.


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