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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:09 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
Boy am I glad Bay was so much better then I gave him credit for. I'll eat a good portion of that Crow if you'll please pass the butter to put on it.


Here you go LOL

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:10 pm 
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Thank you

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:12 pm 
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LaRoche needs a hit to get above that Mendoza line... preferrably a 2R Dinger.


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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:15 pm 
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The replay of the HR is now on GameDay. AWESOME.

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:15 pm 
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I doubt LaRussa was trying to get a 2 inning save from Izzy...I think he was hoping to get through the inning...He took Izzy from the closer role because he needed a mental break

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:28 pm 
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Big Day from Doug Meint...today!!! 3 for 3, 2 Runs, 2 BB's

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:33 pm 
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Nice Buc debut by Senor Chavez.

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:34 pm 
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Alright boys, lets save some of these runs for the weekend against the Cubbies, huh?


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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:35 pm 
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It definitely didnt look good early today...way to go team!!!

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:36 pm 
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CHAVEZ in the 9th extends the lead! Woo hoo.


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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:39 pm 
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OK, I officially take back what I said about Piniero. No STBHOF plaque for you, Joel.

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:48 pm 
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Am I reading this correctly that McLouth has drawn 3 walks since hitting the HR in the first? Wow. Were any of these intentional?

Great games by Doug M and Gomez. When they hit, they normally hit a lot.


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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:49 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
Am I reading this correctly that McLouth has drawn 3 walks since hitting the HR in the first? Wow. Were any of these intentional?

Great games by Doug M and Gomez. When they hit, they normally hit a lot.


Nope. But Michaels followed him in the lineup. Hmmmm. Wonder if he would've seen better pitches with Bay behind him?

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:49 pm 
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I like Doug M at 3rd. Great win for the good guys! How about the Bucs rattling off 10 straight runs after being down 5-1??

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:55 pm 
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This is a nice win for many reasons. Actually took my son to play mini golf and there was a wing place across the street. Sat down had some wings and watched the comeback. Totally unexpected but very fun. Keep it up Bucs. 2 out of 3 from the Redbirds is a nice series.

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:10 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
TheShark wrote:
Am I reading this correctly that McLouth has drawn 3 walks since hitting the HR in the first? Wow. Were any of these intentional?

Great games by Doug M and Gomez. When they hit, they normally hit a lot.


Nope. But Michaels followed him in the lineup. Hmmmm. Wonder if he would've seen better pitches with Bay behind him?

Maybe. But then I'm sure it was important to make sure Michaels saw good pitches to hit by batting him higher in the order. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 7:00 pm 
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one heluva game i think teke can give us a +2 for this series :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 7:07 pm 
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Willton wrote:

No. 9 wrote:
Nope. But Michaels followed him in the lineup. Hmmmm. Wonder if he would've seen better pitches with Bay behind him?


Maybe. But then I'm sure it was important to make sure Michaels saw good pitches to hit by batting him higher in the order. :roll:


Maybe? Maybe? Are you seriously suggesting that the Cardinals may have pitched McLouth the same way if Bay was following him in the lineup? The pitch sequence in the 5th inning is a classic example of the existence of "protection." Two outs. Runners on first and second. McLouth at the bat. Piniero throws 5 pitches - four of them change-ups to McLouth - all four change-ups on the outside where McLouth has little to no chance of hitting the ball. The only fastball was well down and in. Again, in an area where McLouth can't hit it. It is eminently clear that the Cardinals would rather (1) force McLouth to hit a ball out of the zone; (2) take the walk and proceed against Michaels with the bases loaded. Fortunately for the Bucs, the Cards lost that bet and Michaels made them pay. Now, you really think that they would have done that with Bay in the on deck circle? They still may have been careful with McLouth but the equation changes with Bay on deck.

As for your other comment, again you don't make any sense. You are clearly attempting to mock the suggestion that moving Bautista up in the lineup would result in him seeing better pitches than if he was hitting ahead of Paulino. So . . . I'll try this again. Bautista at the plate, two outs, runners on first and second. Situation #1: McLouth on deck. Situation #2: Bixler on deck. Go on record. Pitcher take the same approach with Bautista in both situations? Pitcher willing to challenge Bautista with hittable pitches with Bixler on deck? Pitcher willing to challenge Bautista with hittable pitches with McLouth on deck? Who would the pitcher rather have "beat" him in Situation #1 - McLouth or Bautista? Who would the pitcher rather have "beat" him in Situation #2 - Bautista or Bixler?

I fully understand that you don't want to take away ABs from your best hitters. So . . . . if the batting order has Bautista hitting 2nd and McLouth 3rd, Bay 4th, LaRoche 5th, Nady 6th and Paulino 7th, how many ABs does that "take away" from McLouth (a) per game; (b) per week; (c) in the four weeks that Doumit is out; and (d) over a season? Same question for Bay, LaRoche and Nady.

As for your suggested batting order, I take it that you would like to see (1) McLouth, (2) Nady, (3) Bay, (4) Bautista, (5) LaRoche, (6) Sanchez, (7) Paulino and (8) Bixler. That is the current OPS ranking of these 8 players. It would maximize the number of ABs for the hitters with the highest OPS.

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 Post subject: Re: 5/15 Pirates @ Cards
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:51 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Maybe? Maybe? Are you seriously suggesting that the Cardinals may have pitched McLouth the same way if Bay was following him in the lineup? The pitch sequence in the 5th inning is a classic example of the existence of "protection." Two outs. Runners on first and second. McLouth at the bat. Piniero throws 5 pitches - four of them change-ups to McLouth - all four change-ups on the outside where McLouth has little to no chance of hitting the ball. The only fastball was well down and in. Again, in an area where McLouth can't hit it. It is eminently clear that the Cardinals would rather (1) force McLouth to hit a ball out of the zone; (2) take the walk and proceed against Michaels with the bases loaded. Fortunately for the Bucs, the Cards lost that bet and Michaels made them pay. Now, you really think that they would have done that with Bay in the on deck circle? They still may have been careful with McLouth but the equation changes with Bay on deck.

You know what, you're probably right: in that situation, McLouth would probably see more pitches to hit with Bay hitting behind him rather than Michaels. In other situations? I'm not so sure that's the case. However, I don't see how any of this will help him perform better, unless you consider walks a bad thing.

No. 9 wrote:
As for your other comment, again you don't make any sense. You are clearly attempting to mock the suggestion that moving Bautista up in the lineup would result in him seeing better pitches than if he was hitting ahead of Paulino. So . . . I'll try this again. Bautista at the plate, two outs, runners on first and second. Situation #1: McLouth on deck. Situation #2: Bixler on deck. Go on record. Pitcher take the same approach with Bautista in both situations? Pitcher willing to challenge Bautista with hittable pitches with Bixler on deck? Pitcher willing to challenge Bautista with hittable pitches with McLouth on deck? Who would the pitcher rather have "beat" him in Situation #1 - McLouth or Bautista? Who would the pitcher rather have "beat" him in Situation #2 - Bautista or Bixler?

Going on record: with two outs and runners on, Bautista would likely see better pitches to hit with a better hitter following him in the order. Now my question to you: why does any of this matter?

I'm not mocking the suggestion that Bautista would see better pitches to hit if he were moved up the order. I'm mocking the suggestion that it would somehow benefit the team if he were. I do see how Bautista would get more pitches to hit if he were followed by a better hitter than one like Bixler. What I don't see is how that perceived benefit even equals, much less outweighs the negative of having a bad hitter like Bautista at the top of the order.

Further, your logic is twisted. You are positing that it would benefit Bautista to move him higher in the order so that he may receive better protection from the likes of Nate McLouth and Jason Bay. Assuming batter protection is a good thing, why is it beneficial to afford a bad hitter protection at the expense of taking away protection from a good hitter? If the Pirates were to bat Bautista 2nd behind Sanchez and ahead of McLouth, that may afford Bautista more protection, but it would take away protection from Sanchez, a demonstrably better hitter than Bautista, by having Bautista follow Sanchez. So I ask you: does it make sense to give protection to a bad hitter by taking it away from a good one?

By the way, baseball exists in a far larger realm than hitting situations with two outs and runners on. Limiting the scope of your hypos to those situations limits the merits of your argument.

No. 9 wrote:
I fully understand that you don't want to take away ABs from your best hitters. So . . . . if the batting order has Bautista hitting 2nd and McLouth 3rd, Bay 4th, LaRoche 5th, Nady 6th and Paulino 7th, how many ABs does that "take away" from McLouth (a) per game; (b) per week; (c) in the four weeks that Doumit is out; and (d) over a season? Same question for Bay, LaRoche and Nady.

If McLouth were to only bat 3rd for an entire season, he'd average 18 fewer plate appearances (a better measure than ABs, as ABs do not take into account walks, HBPs, or sacrifices) than if he were to bat 2nd for an entire season. Same with Bay if he were to bat 4th instead of 3rd, LaRoche if he were to bat 5th instead of 4th, and Nady if he were to bat 6th instead of 5th. That's the difference: 18 plate appearances on average per season.

Is that a lot? No, it's only a tenth of a plate appearance per game. Does that have a greater impact on a season than the notion of protection? I think so.

No. 9 wrote:
As for your suggested batting order, I take it that you would like to see (1) McLouth, (2) Nady, (3) Bay, (4) Bautista, (5) LaRoche, (6) Sanchez, (7) Paulino and (8) Bixler. That is the current OPS ranking of these 8 players. It would maximize the number of ABs for the hitters with the highest OPS.

I'm not a big user of OPS, as I think it's too simplistic. I use OBP and SLG as separate entities because they mean different things. My suggested batting order is the same one I proposed in an earlier thread: Bat Paulino 7th and move everyone else up one spot to fill the void left by Doumit.

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