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 Post subject: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:14 am 
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http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09050/950193-63.stm

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Having Hinske contribute his career averages of 15 homers, 57 RBIs in roughly 400 at-bats and serve as an upstanding role model is part of the Pirates' plan. Last month, when signing the one-year, $1.5 million free-agent contract that could pay him another $1 million in performance bonuses, he was told to expect regular playing time at the corner positions and a vital role.


Sorry, but if this guys elevated to regular status, NH and crew lose quite a few points in my book.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:19 am 
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I called this 3 weeks ago.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:33 am 
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It's not that big of a stretch to see him getting @400 PAs in a super-uti role, shuttling between LF, RF, 3b, 1b and DHing in IL games.

But I think Finder was just (awkwardly) rattling off Hinske's career averages rather than prognosticating his total 09 contribution.

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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:36 am 
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LtCol Kojak Slaphead wrote:
It's not that big of a stretch to see him getting @400 PAs in a super-uti role, shuttling between LF, RF, 3b, 1b and DHing in IL games.

But I think Finder was just (awkwardly) rattling off Hinske's career averages rather than prognosticating his total 09 contribution.


I think that's exactly it. Face it, we have big question marks in both corner OF and at 3rd, plus a 1bman who may not hit until June. Given that Hinske can play all 4 of those positions, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get close to 400 PA's...and it doesn't mean he will have a starting role on the club. I would further argue that having a utility guy like that who hit 20 homers last year is a good guy to give 400 pa's to.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:47 am 
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I may be making more out of this than necessary, but a soon to be 32 year old ball player with a one year contract is not the kind of player the Pirates should be counting on to be a big contributor. Just my $0.02.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:49 am 
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BBF wrote:
I think that's exactly it. Face it, we have big question marks in both corner OF and at 3rd, plus a 1bman who may not hit until June. Given that Hinske can play all 4 of those positions, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get close to 400 PA's...and it doesn't mean he will have a starting role on the club. I would further argue that having a utility guy like that who hit 20 homers last year is a good guy to give 400 pa's to.


Agreed. In a perfect world Morgan will get on base at a .380 clip, Moss will stay injury free and hit .275 with 25 HR's, Little LaRoche will blossom, and Big LaRoche will hit for a full season. But......

....it is the Pirates. Russell will be happy to be able to use Hinske in all those spots. Even if those players do okay, you have to think Hinske starts 3 times a week to give those guys a day off every week. Work in his pinch hitting duties and you have somewhere in the 300-350 AB range right there. So 400 AB's isn't a stretch for Hinske with the current roster configuration.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:50 am 
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Argentum wrote:
I may be making more out of this than necessary, but a soon to be 32 year old ball player with a one year contract is not the kind of player the Pirates should be counting on to be a big contributor. Just my $0.02.



This goes back to our Pedro debate. Would you rather have the young kids come up early so we can see what they have, or sign some has been vets to bridge the gap between now and next year.

Hinske is one of those has beens who's going to bridge the gap for us. I just wish we'd be honest about that fact and not make this guy out to be more than the has been he is.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:00 pm 
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Well, I'll stay in the minority I guess and argue just for the sake of arguing (slow day here at work).

OF - McLouth a lock in CF. Why not rotate Moss, Pearce, and Morgan around the other positions?

1B - Barring an injury, there aren't that many ABs to be had here.

3B - A huge question mark for sure. Perhaps the one position that warrants more ABs for Hinske. But nowhere near 350, unless of course Andy plays so bad that he gets demoted.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:05 pm 
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He should get most of the ABs that Menky and Michaels got last year. I'm guessing ('cause I'm too lazy to look) that would amount to close to 400 ABs.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:26 pm 
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bradf wrote:
He should get most of the ABs that Menky and Michaels got last year. I'm guessing ('cause I'm too lazy to look) that would amount to close to 400 ABs.


But most of Minky's ABs came at 1B compliments of LaRoches injury. And Michaels was a beneficiary of the Bay/Nady trades.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:31 pm 
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Maybe a better comparison would be the Craigster...and maybe 400 ABs is a stretch, but 300-350 is not unusal for your top reserve.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:04 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
Well, I'll stay in the minority I guess and argue just for the sake of arguing (slow day here at work).

OF - McLouth a lock in CF. Why not rotate Moss, Pearce, and Morgan around the other positions?

The potential for failure for those latter two is fairly high; for Moss, it's less but still substantial. But for the sake of argument, let's just say that Moss and Morgan break out. Even in a best case scenario, I doubt either would see more than 400-450 PAs themselves. Craig Monroe (now there's the guy you should be worried about seeing too much playing time) probably factors in here as well, but even by playing the kids there are ABs up for grabs in the outfield.

Argentum wrote:
1B - Barring an injury, there aren't that many ABs to be had here.

I could see Hinske getting a start a week here, maybe more during Adam's extended spring training in April and May. And if LaRoche gets dealt at the deadline (I'll put even odds on that)...

Argentum wrote:
3B - A huge question mark for sure. Perhaps the one position that warrants more ABs for Hinske. But nowhere near 350, unless of course Andy plays so bad that he gets demoted.

Not hard to imagine a platoon situation at 3B, especially if Andy struggles early.

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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:24 pm 
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LtCol Kojak Slaphead wrote:
The potential for failure for those latter two is fairly high; for Moss, it's less but still substantial. But for the sake of argument, let's just say that Moss and Morgan break out. Even in a best case scenario, I doubt either would see more than 400-450 PAs themselves. Craig Monroe (now there's the guy you should be worried about seeing too much playing time) probably factors in here as well, but even by playing the kids there are ABs up for grabs in the outfield..


There is also potential for failure from Hinske. I'm guessing best case scenario for him is a 750 OPS, which is #1 bench player material. Moss and Morgan should be able to sustain 700-750 fairly easily so I don't see any real trade offs. Pearce is a stretch, but again, I think he could hover around a 700 OPS. Those numbers for Moss, Morgan, and Pearce are worst case scenarios. I'd rather take a chance on the youngsters higher upside.

Oh, and Monroe doesn't even make the team if I'm calling the shots.

LtCol Kojak Slaphead wrote:
I could see Hinske getting a start a week here, maybe more during Adam's extended spring training in April and May. And if LaRoche gets dealt at the deadline (I'll put even odds on that)....


Trade protection does make some sense. But considering Hinske only has a one year deal, that protection would be short lived.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:38 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
Moss and Morgan should be able to sustain 700-750 fairly easily so I don't see any real trade offs.


Upon further review, I am retracting half of this statement. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:52 pm 
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400 ABs = 80 games where Hinske starts and averages 4.25 ABs per game (340 ABs) and 60 games where he serves as a pinch hitter and averages 1.2 ABs (72 ABs - assumes that Hinske would stay in game with a double switch about one out of every 5 games and get an additional AB after initially pinch hitting).

Hinske spots Adam LaRoche for 20 games during the season.
Hinske spots Andy LaRoche for 20 games during the season.
Hinske spots LFer du jour for 20 games during the season.
Hinske spots RFer for 20 games during the season.
20 games = 12.5% of the season. That is less than one game on average per week. All of the above-noted players will be the primary position player. Hinske offers rest to the players and, in the case of an injury or complete implosion, insurance if Pearce or McCutcheon simply don't cut it.

You can tweak the numbers to get him close 400 ABs which don't significantly impact the starters' playing time.

As for rotating Moss and Pearce, I would be far less inclined to move those two around to various positions as they are still learning. Hinske "is who he is," is not a long term investment and will adequately fill in as needed.

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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 2:33 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
400 ABs = 80 games where Hinske starts and averages 4.25 ABs per game (340 ABs) and 60 games where he serves as a pinch hitter and averages 1.2 ABs (72 ABs - assumes that Hinske would stay in game with a double switch about one out of every 5 games and get an additional AB after initially pinch hitting).

Hinske spots Adam LaRoche for 20 games during the season.
Hinske spots Andy LaRoche for 20 games during the season.
Hinske spots LFer du jour for 20 games during the season.
Hinske spots RFer for 20 games during the season.
20 games = 12.5% of the season. That is less than one game on average per week. All of the above-noted players will be the primary position player. Hinske offers rest to the players and, in the case of an injury or complete implosion, insurance if Pearce or McCutcheon simply don't cut it.

You can tweak the numbers to get him close 400 ABs which don't significantly impact the starters' playing time.

As for rotating Moss and Pearce, I would be far less inclined to move those two around to various positions as they are still learning. Hinske "is who he is," is not a long term investment and will adequately fill in as needed.


Yeah, maybe I'm overreacting a bit, 15 years of DL and CB will do that, but when I hear the term "regular" I think starter, or pretty close to starter. I guess I'll take solace in the fact that Finder used that term, not NH or JR (at least to my knowledge).

Burnitz, Morris, and Randa type situations scare the hell out of me.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 2:54 pm 
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Jeremy wrote:
Argentum wrote:
I may be making more out of this than necessary, but a soon to be 32 year old ball player with a one year contract is not the kind of player the Pirates should be counting on to be a big contributor. Just my $0.02.



This goes back to our Pedro debate. Would you rather have the young kids come up early so we can see what they have, or sign some has been vets to bridge the gap between now and next year.

Hinske is one of those has beens who's going to bridge the gap for us. I just wish we'd be honest about that fact and not make this guy out to be more than the has been he is.


Both of these arguments are ridiculous. Where is it written that if a guy is over 30 he can't contribute? Or if he's on a one year contract he can't contribute?

Hinske is a solid veteran in the prime of his career who was brought here to make a contribution. Not in 2012, but this year. And that's a good thing and you should be glad we have him.

If the young guys play well they are going to play regularly. But if they suck they are going to ride the pine, or play in AAA. That's just the way life is.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 3:08 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Jeremy wrote:
Argentum wrote:
I may be making more out of this than necessary, but a soon to be 32 year old ball player with a one year contract is not the kind of player the Pirates should be counting on to be a big contributor. Just my $0.02.



This goes back to our Pedro debate. Would you rather have the young kids come up early so we can see what they have, or sign some has been vets to bridge the gap between now and next year.

Hinske is one of those has beens who's going to bridge the gap for us. I just wish we'd be honest about that fact and not make this guy out to be more than the has been he is.


Both of these arguments are ridiculous. Where is it written that if a guy is over 30 he can't contribute? Or if he's on a one year contract he can't contribute?

Hinske is a solid veteran in the prime of his career who was brought here to make a contribution. Not in 2012, but this year. And that's a good thing and you should be glad we have him.

If the young guys play well they are going to play regularly. But if they suck they are going to ride the pine, or play in AAA. That's just the way life is.



Prime of his career? That made me spit out my iced tea!

If he was as good as you make him out to be, someone else would have snapped him up a long before Pittsburgh could get to him. He signed with the Bucs because he's a has been who's looking for one more half way decent pay day before he takes the cross Pacific trek to finish his career in Japan.


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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 3:34 pm 
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bradf wrote:
Maybe a better comparison would be the Craigster...and maybe 400 ABs is a stretch, but 300-350 is not unusal for your top reserve.


Slick Wilson reference insert. :D

I do think you are making too much out of this Argentum. Like No. 9 shows, "regular" means regular, not starter.

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 Post subject: Re: Hinske to get 400 ABs?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 3:46 pm 
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I wouldnt call Hinske a has been. Hes certainly not starter quality, but he did have one of his best power years just last season and im thinking might be helped out by the RF wall.

I agree with those who feel his number of ABs will come down to the sort of season Laroche number 2 has.


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